Is Khabby that much better than Huet?
We're halfway through the season now - and one of the biggest surprises is that we still have two number one goalies on our team, much to our salary caps' dismay.
There's been talk about both of them in the comments recently and some of you have pointed out something weird that's going on. Check out their stats:
The opinion shared by many, including me most times, is that Khabby has been the star goalie, while Huet's has been pretty rough. Khabby's record of 13-3-4 looks to support that when you compare it to Huet's 10-7-3. The Hawks win more, and more importantly lose less, when Khabby's between the pipes.
But looking at their SV% and GAA shows something a bit different. Khabby's stats are better, but not by much. Khabby is 8th in the NHL in SV% but Huet is only .012 worse (he's 18th overall). Their GAA is close too with Khabby once again 8th overall in the NHL and Huet closer this time at 14th.
So why the difference in records? Someone asked if it might be that the Hawks for some reason aren't scoring when Huet is on the ice, but that's not quite it either.. These are the goals scored for the Hawks when each goalie is on the ice:
|
Goals against |
5 on 5 |
5 on 4 |
4 on 5 |
|
N. Khabibulin |
48 |
18 |
4 |
|
C. Huet |
41 |
18 |
1 |
Compare that with Goals Against:
|
Goals against |
5 on 5 |
5 on 4 |
4 on 5 |
|
N. Khabibulin |
34 |
1 |
14 |
|
C. Huet |
33 |
1 |
13 |
The Hawks have 7 more even strength goals when Khabby's in the net, but that's mostly because Khabby has 121 more minutes of ice time. The only other big difference is that the Hawks have 4 times as many short-handed goals when Khabby's playing.
Khabby's clearly played the better game so far but it really hasn't been by much. Both have had 5 games of giving up 4 or more goals but only Huet's given up 6.. and he's done it twice (Sharks and Red Wings).
Huet struggled in mid-november dropping 4 straight games - but even those you have to cut him some slack on. One was the 6-5 game at home against the sharks. 4 of those goals came on the power play and one of them came from a total boner play by Sopel. His next loss came against the Sharks as well when Khabby was hurt - the final goal being on a great play in overtime.
The next loss against the Ducks a hard one - Huet only let in one goal and the Hawks failed to score any. Then in the final game of the Cali trip all the Hawks crapped the bed and they lost 5-2 (one empty net goal).
His other notable losses are the opener against the Rangers (the Hawks are a much better team now than they were then), 4 against the Wings in early December and the 6 goals in the Winter Classic (some more his fault than others).
Here's something else to consider though:
|
On the Power Play |
Shots for, per 60 |
Shots against, per 60 |
|
N. Khabibulin |
44.9 |
8.2 |
|
C. Huet |
34.6 |
10.9 |
The Hawks are averaging more shots while they're on the Power Play when Khabby is on the ice than they are when it's Huet's turn. They're also averaging more shots against Huet than Khabby. Is Huet playing stronger teams with better special teams? Is it dumb luck?
Similar stats for even strength or man advantage show once again that the two goalies are partically the same. Only with Huet averaging slightly fewer shots per 60 even strengthed.
So Huet may have looked rocky to start, 3-5-2 in the first 10, but in his next 10 he's found his rythym and has gone 7-2-1. Huet benefitted a lot from the Hawks december hot streak (5 of the 9 wins) and if he proved anything last year, it's that he can ride a hot team as good as anyone. Once being traded to the Caps at the deadline last year, Huet played in 13 games and was an outstanding 11-2 in those games.
Rag on Huet all you want - but except for some early faltering with his new team, he's basically the same damn goalie and Khabby.
If the Hawks end up finding a taker for Khabby towards the deadline - good. I think Huet is up to the challenge of being a true number one. If not, we've got a better back up than just about anyone in the league and who knows how helpful that'll be in a playoff series.
Big thanks to www.Behindthenet.ca for the stats.. and once again - I'm an idiot. So if I missed something in here - feel free to tear me apart in the comments.
Comments
Great analysis
I was supporting Huet in a game thread a few days ago and speculating as to why his record is so much worse than Khabby’s. After that analysis, particularly pointing out that there really isn’t any difference in goals scored, I’m a bit more bewildered about Huet’s record. It’s obviously not performance, as you’ve shown with GAA and SV% stats, so what is it? Something intangible?
Either way, I’m as confident about the team’s chances with Huet in the net as I am with Khabby, and I agree with everything you wrote. It’s a shame that people think Huet’s bad because of his record, but that’s downright false.
by mjthor on
Jan 13, 2009 4:47 PM CST
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I for one
fell that Huet has really stepped up his game, also I believe that has come with the development of this team defensively and as a whole. Having said that, you still leave a great question, why is Huet’s record so much worse than Khabby’s? Maybe he has been in more close losses, I know the Hawks started the season losing quite a bit of games in OT. I don’t know, and if had the time and the motivation I’d try and figure it out, but I suppose for now I’ll just speculate.
by cubs22 on
Jan 13, 2009 5:55 PM CST
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I do have to admit though
That despite the numbers that have been dug up here, I still have more confidence in the Hawks chances when the Khabby is in net. I don’t know why that is, but I do.
by cubs22 on
Jan 13, 2009 5:58 PM CST
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I hav eonly seen a few games
but it seems to me that Huet gives up more soft goals than Khabby. Over the past few years, that has been my one bitch about Khabby, but this year he seems to be playing with more confidence and agility. 2 of the goals that Het gave up in the Classic were major softies through the 5 hole.
Maybe Huet has turned the corner, for the limited shots he faced here vs. the Coyotes last week, he seemed on his game.
It’s a nice problem to have 2 top notch netminders!
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by BigJohnAZ on
Jan 13, 2009 6:20 PM CST
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i haven't really had any beef with Huet's play
for a while now. But I’m still surprised to see how similar his stats are to Khabby’s.
It’s still a pointless waste of cap space to carry both these guys – but at this point, it’s probably for the best. At least we’re getting some great goaltending out of it.
by chrome on
Jan 13, 2009 7:40 PM CST
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BigJohn said it right
Huet gives up a TON of soft goals. Soft goals (for people who are still learning about the sport) are basically goals that the goalie should have stopped. Tricklers, the goalie being blatantly out of position, or shots that he gets a piece of but lets go by are a few examples. Huet has improved tremendously since the start of the season.
Huet is by no means a bad goalie. He has played well in Montreal and Washington. He is just going through one of those rough patches, and we can all see, he is beginning to find his stride.
by torpedo0126 on
Jan 14, 2009 8:38 AM CST
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I think the stats show he's found his stride.
And I don’t know that anyone should really hold the Winter Classic game against him. Take away that game, and he’s been pretty consistently great since the San Jose debacle.
by chrome on
Jan 14, 2009 10:40 AM CST
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Huet deserves a little slack
his WC stinker notwithstanding, he’s done a fine job lately. Having him and Khabby will probably be the Hawks’ lot until they’re on the disappointed side of a handshake line this spring.
Sure, Huet gives up some softies, but his whole game hinges upon how well he controls rebounds. When he kicks them out far enough away from the net, as he has lately, he’s fine. Every so often though, he just doesn’t kick them far enough away.
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by Forklift14 on
Jan 14, 2009 11:34 AM CST
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that was my biggest concern about him at the start of the season. His rebounds were huge.. but they were going straight out and always to the other team. It seems he’s worked on that now and he’s got them more under control.
by Matthew Dirt on
Jan 14, 2009 11:43 AM CST
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Khabi's had tougher opponents
Khabi’s opponents have scored 3.03 goals per game (as of 1/13/09) excluding games against the Hawks. For Huet it is 2.84. If Khabi and Huet were equally effective, you would expect Huet’s goals against to be 0.19 per game lower. So the 0.14 advantage to Khabi is probably more like 0.33 if you were to hold the competition constant.
Both have been good, but it is a hard sell to call them equals or near-equals.
by soffer on
Jan 14, 2009 4:04 PM CST
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