Shot Differential

by Dr. Ice on Nov 6, 2009 2:59 PM CST

I was motivated by this post by Scott Reynolds over at the outstanding Oilers blog The Copper & Blue, to take a look at the Blackhawks' shot differential this season.

First of all, the Hawks are limiting their opponents to an absurd 22.7 shots per game through the first month of the season, which is 3.5 shots better than their closest competitor (LA). They're also firing an average of 33.3 shots at the opponents' net per game, which is good for 5th in the league. Add (or subtract, I guess) it all up, and the Hawks are leading the NHL in shot differential so far this season, at +10.5 shots per game.

So, how many teams since the lockout have maintained that type of differential for an entire season? And how have the best shot-differential teams performed?

Now, this isn't to suggest that the Blackhawks will maintain this type of dominance in the shot department all year, though the fact that they've done this without, arguably, the guy who will be their biggest offensive weapon (and an excellent two-way forward), is encouraging.

Since the lockout, there has been just one team that has out-shot their opponents by more than 10 shots/game over an entire season. That team was the 2007-08 Red Wings, and +10.9, who finished 54-21-7 for 115 points. In fact, the four teams that Detroit has fielded since the lockout are the Top4 shot-differential clubs in the NHL over that span.

+9.2 - 2006-07 Red Wings (50-19-13, 113 points)

+8.5 - 2008-09 Red Wings (51-21-10, 112 points)

+7.5 - 2005-06 Red Wings (58-16-8, 124 points)

+6.0 - 2008-09 Sharks (53-18-11, 117 points)

+5.7 - 2005-06 Senators (52-21-9, 113 points)

+5.6 - 2007-08 Rangers (42-27-13, 97 points)

+5.4 - 2007-08 Sharks (49-23-10, 108 points)

The next biggest differential is the 2006-07 Maple Leafs, who were at +4.3 shots/game. Of the 31 teams that have had a +2.0 or greater shot differential since the lockout, all of them had at least 88 points, 29 had at least 91 points, and 16 crossed the 100-point barrier.

So, as I said, this isn't to imply that the Blackhawks will maintain a +10 differential for the entire year. But even if this team outshoots their opponents by just one-per-game for the rest of the season, they'd still wind up at +2.6.

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Comments

Great analysis

That was a nice post. Hopefully, this just means the Hawks are doing the right stuff, its just that the floodgates have not opened yet and a higher GF/shot conversion rate is on the horizon. Right?

Or on the other hand, is the +10.5 shots per game being completely negated by the dismal PP? If that is the case, and the lack of shots during the PP (which should in theory be better quality scoring chances) is what’s making the difference, it should be something fixable.

This is assuming though, like you said, that the Hawks will keep up this awesome shot differential. Which, I don’t see any reason why it would change drastically throughout the season.

by K_Dog on Nov 6, 2009 4:33 PM CST reply actions

Geez

Imagine how many goals Huet would allow if the Hawks didn’t have that shot differential

"I hate to sound like a broken record, but I guess it's better than sounding like a broken mp3 player because then you would'nt hear anything." - Len Kasper

by JMG1984 on Nov 6, 2009 4:46 PM CST reply actions

Related to that

is this great article from Puck Prospectus.

by chiblackhawks on Nov 6, 2009 8:13 PM CST reply actions

More on this

I’d seen the Copper and Blue write up via the Flames blog which motivated them to draw up their own analysis as well, only the “Matchsticks & Gasoline” site titled it “Flames in Bad Territory.”

They sit at -5.6, and are quick to point out that this is worse than the 08/09 Islanders. This puts them historically out of the playoff hunt (yes, it is on November and this could and should still change – just sayin’). Trouble arrives in many statistical shapes, and this made me feel good.

"Call Detroit, tell dem... BULLSHIT!"

by Hungryhawk on Nov 7, 2009 6:05 PM CST reply actions

Great work

Dr. Ice. Thanks for the analysis. And that puck prospectus article makes me want to be a subscriber.

by Scott13 on Nov 7, 2009 9:12 PM CST reply actions

great work!!!

I can’t remember if i’ve seen this here but is there a strict correlation between few shots against and higher save percentages?

I know logic would say that goalies who see fewer shots let up fewer goals, but is this always the case? (Like against phoenix when, i think, in the second period we only allowed 5 shots, but 2 goals).

by SLoop on Nov 9, 2009 2:32 PM CST reply actions