Looking Forward Back
by SamFels on Jul 16, 2009 4:46 PM CDT
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So, let's take an early look at the challenge that faces our new GM. With every one trying to throw themselves out the first window they can find over the upcoming RFA status of Toews, Kane, and Keith, perhaps we should be rational (radical, I know) about what it's going to take. Rozner claims the Hawks have to clear out $15 million in cap space, a claim so ridiculous that "rozner" is now going to be an adjective describing something galactically stupid. Now, we can't predict what kind of seasons these guys will have, and Kane playing on the other side of Hossa could result in a 90+ point season and throw this all out of whack. But let's focus on what we know. On to it:
This one seems easy. Mike Richards makes a 5.75 cap hit, and you cannot find two similar players then these two. Both young, dynamic, forceful captains who bring it on both ends of the ice. I love Toews as much as anyone, but I also love Mike Richards. Richards also has three 70+ point seasons on his resume, and Toews donnae have a one. You have to figure that 5.75 number is where this ends up, probably with another impossibly long contract. Let's use nice round numbers, and say that results in a cap hit raise of 3 million.
Trickier than Toews. Because what is Keith? A great defenseman, no doubt. But what isn't he? Well, he's not a PP QB, and he's not going to be any time soon. Clearly doesn't have the hands and vision and shot to be that, at least not yet. That doesn't mean he's totally useless in the offensive zone, he's not. But his best work comes from the red line back. So if you put him on the same scale as defensive defenseman with the same +/- numbers, that puts you along with Willie Mitchell and Dennis Wideman, who each make 3.5. Now, clearly, Keith is a better all-around d-man then those two, but not by as much as you think (I still think Chara should cut his Norris trophy in half and give it to Wideman, that's how good he was this year). Komisarek, simply a brusing blue-liner, just got signed for 4, but provides much more physicality than Keith It's really hard to figure where Dunc fits. He's not Lidstrom, nor Mike Green, or Dan Boyle. The closest I can come to finding a similar player is Shea Weber, who makes 4.5. But Weber also QB's a top PP unit. Basically, I just can't see how Keith makes anything more than 5, and 4.5 would seem to be the number. Don't be blinded by Keith skills, which are so noticeable, i.e. speed and active stick. Remember what he doesn't do as well.
(I'm completely aware that someone's going to fill the comments section with something to the effect of "BUT CAMPBELL MAKES 7.1!!". Again, focus on what he does. An offensive d-man who's a premier PP QB, and there's about 10 of them in the entire league, all making north of 6 mil a year, so shut up).
So, if we settle on 4.5, that's another cap hit raise of 3, for a total of 6 with Toews.
The trickiest one yet. McClure and I spent considerable time trying to find like-players, and it's hard to do. Kane's also the most likely to see his point totals bounce up this year. The only one we could come up with was Ales Hemsky. Hemsky has the same hands, plays almost the same game as Kane. He has three 65+ point seasons to his name. It can be argued that Hemsky has never had a crack at playing with the talent that Kane has in his two years in Chicago. Hemsky's cap hit is 4.5. Now, Kane will get more than that on the open market. But to me, it comes down to this: Is Kane more valuable than Toews? You simply cannot answer yes. He doesn't do enough. Far too streaky, and who knows if that will ever go away? Kane still doesn't shoot enough, and doesn't score enough. At the moment, he's a pint-sized Adam Oates. He makes players around him better, but doesn't kill penalties, or play at all in his own end, really. The Hawks are going to have to take big risks on this one, and come to grips with the fact that some team very well might have an offer sheet of 7 mil or more. If that happens, sorry Kaner, but best of luck. Frankly, Kane can't come in at any more than 6, which isn't even a raise of 3 on the cap hit, but 2.3, for a total of 8.3 to sign THE BIG THREE.
And that can be easily done, and I maintain that they're going to do it by moving Huet after this year, if he proves effective. If you can find some dolt to take Scott Gomez, you can find one to take Huet. Huet plus Buff would be opening up close to 11 million with John Madden's deal up. If Huet can't be moved, or the Hawks don't have Plan B in net, then versteeg, Buff, and Madden would open up almost 9. It can be done, so please, get some sleep tonight.
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Dovetailing from this...
…is a piece from Sassone today that has Stan Bowman on record stating that the team likely will not look drastically different from the one that’s presently assembled.
Additionally, Bowman states that, while it was a priority of Uncle Dale’s to deal for a large, physical defenseman for the third pair, Bowman is confident in the defensive corps as it’s currently constituted.
Bowman can feel free to lock up Toews any time he wants, I think we know what we’re going to get with him. On the other hand we need to see some progression from Kane and we also need to see if Keith can round back into pre-Stafford concussion hit form because he was very average in the playoffs esp in the CalGary series with their bigger core of D-men. I’m probably in the minority, but to me Seabrook is the more important of the two right now simply because of the rest of the less-than-physical D-core the Hawks have. With fatasses Franzen and Holmstrom on the Scum you need to have at least one physical type at least attempting to move those lardasses from the crease. Rewatching the first two periods of the Winter Classic yesterday I was reminded of Keith getting outmuscled by arguably (aside from Kane & Kariya) the least physical player in the NHL in Jiri Hudler on that second period goal. Dunc really needs to hit the weights this summer.
the unlistenables at WSCR have a few recent interviews you can check out with Darren Dreger and Stan Bowman on their podcast page over the last day or two…all you have to do is click play. You don’t have to download anything unless for some reason you want to dump them to your iPod.
http://www.670thescore.com/mully-and-hanley-interviews/3596918
I agree and agree
Seabrook is extremely important to the Hawks sucess. Keith is a great defender but struggles within 8 feet of the net. He needs to improve his ability to clear people out in front of the net, clear out rebounds (esp. with Huet), and his play behind the net.
Seabrook needs to improve his puckhandling and his positioning.
Well put.
I think the issue with Campbell is not only the rarity in player type, but the fact the he was unrestricted as a free agent. The Hawks didn’t have to give up any picks to get him, making it easier to offer him the $7.1. Now if someone wants to give Dunc $7.1 and also have to fork over a boatload of draft picks, then say goodbye.
I highly doubt Toews makes it all the way to July without an extension (as long as its allowed per the CBA. Not too keen on entry level contract rules.). The organization has made his value very visible by placing the C on his chest. He is worth too much to let a team try to swoop in with an astronomical offer sheet.
While it may take a trade or two, the sky is not falling. The cap is not in as dire straights as Scum and Blues fans want to make you aware of by screaming it in your face.
twitter.com/kaner88
some other centers to compare to…not necessarily similar types of players to Toews but more so the contract range Bowman will face with other players who post similar point totals…obviously not including D or other intangibles.
Derek Roy – 3.5M, 4.0M, 4.5M, 5.5M over the next 4 years
Paul Stastny – 6.6M over the next 5 years
Henrik Sedin – 6.1M over the next 5 years
so minimum $6-6.5M for Toews most definitely
Not really feeling that.
I know Toews is a great in the making, but, if you look at the Sedins you are looking at consistency. Toews needs to show this.. I think… in order to get that kind of loot. A good playoff run will enhance his portfolio, and I believe the escalating D Roy contract is more likely.
I think Stastny is overpaid a tad now, but will be upper echelon (sp?) over his career.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jul 17, 2009 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't grab that pillow just yet...
If Huet has the kind of season that would make people interested in him as trade bait, there’s no reason to trade him. His salary is not obscene by any stretch if he’s the kind of guy you can rely on, and if he’s not, there’s no way anyone takes him unless maybe if he’s packaged with something cheap and very valuable. And then you still have to replace him, and you’re not going to get a number 1 goalie for much less than his current number.
Let’s hope that Buff has a really good season. Maybe they can find a way to trade him for a similarly capped blueliner in his last contract year between now and the trade deadline. If Buff’s performing like the end of last season, he’s reasonably priced at 3 and people will be interested. The Hawks have 3 or 4 guys in the minors that could probably come up and fill his role for a lower cap hit.
Steeger could probably fill a similar trade role. If Stan can pull a rabbit out of his hat and trade both of those guys for dudes with expirations on July 1, that’s two of the raises right there, and Madden makes three.
Of course you still have to fill those roster spots, and adjust for the cap possibly shrinking, and possibly clear out another $5M if all that bonus cushion money gets earned.
by StretchingTwine on Jul 16, 2009 6:43 PM CDT reply actions
Question for Capologists
Is anyone here familiar enough with the intricacies of the cap to know whether or not the oft-discussed bonus Dany Heatley received on July 1 counted against the cap, or to what degree? Since that lump sum appears to be independent of his per annum from some of the research I’ve done, and it doesn’t directly show up on Ottawa’s cap that I can find, is there anything from stopping the Hawks from using this to their advantage with the Kids and Keith next year.
Basically I’m wondering if it’s possible to give them all an obscene bonus (whether it’s a roster or signing bonus, whatever the cap-friendly terminology needs to be), in exchange for a more cap friendly annual salary.
However, I could be totally off-base, and that $4 million Heatley received could be just an amount that was set to be given to him on that date specifically, as part of his annual salary and contract. But if not, I’d like to see if it’s an avenue the Hawks can explore in their current situation.
After getting sidetracked by the limitations on parking revenues (riveting stuff really), I’m having a hard time figuring out the Heatley situation. I assumed that it was a deferred bonus, but that would only allow him to collect his bonus at the expiration of his contract. He signed as an RFA with OTT for 3 years before the 05-06 season. So that would mean his contract ran out after the 07-08 season. Except he signed a 6 year extension at the beginning of the 07-08 season (what’s that phrase they use about hindsight?).
I’ll try looking at this again a little later. I need to go clear my mind. They need to make a CBA for dummies where they take out all the legal jargon.
twitter.com/kaner88
by Original Six on Jul 16, 2009 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure it was just a one-time signing bonus, which doesn’t count against the cap. The performance bonuses are the only ones that count, I think. I don’t know the specifics, but I’m sure there’s a stipulation in there about what kind of number a signing bonus is allowed to be by making it a maximum of x percent of the player’s cap hit or actual salary, so that you can’t go sign someone to a low cap hit and then give him a whatever, 50 million dollar bonus.
Off topic, but look at Lil' Bowman's smile...
…it’s perturbing. It looks grafted on, or sculpted of clay. And he has no eyelashes. If that smug face doesn’t perfectly represent an entitled little junior Napolean, I don’t know what does. I bet he feels slimy like a fish to the touch.
I was thinking he bears some resemblance of puffy out of shape era Vince Vaughn
by Crease Monkey on Jul 16, 2009 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Kaner
Excellent run down on all three, sounds reasonable right now. As for Kane, it would not surprise me for some team to offer him some outrageous money to become their franchise kid. He’s got the face, he’s got the gimmick with his goofy ass mouthpiece thing and he undeniably has some awesome talent. Between him and Toews, I think it’s obvious who we would keep right now if we had to choose. Personally, I just want to see some forward movement out of him. Several times last year, particularly at the end of the season, his demeanor just made me think he hasn’t quite grasped that the meter on his career has just started running. I get that he’s only 20, but I think he’s got to show growth in a few areas next year to justify a big cap hit.
I can see it playing out that way
But I can also see KKT all getting extended before they hit RFA. Kane seems to really like the organ-I-zation, he even cried when Savard was fired. The Hawks aren’t going to low ball him and I can see him leaving some money on the table. Versteeg and Barker could have opted for the UFA route (or could have tried). These guys have been together and have tasted success, I see them all wanting to stick around – I mean look at the hurt feelings in the Havlat situation. With that said, if Kane doesn’t progress and someone does throw 7 mm at him, I don’t see the Hawks matching unless McDouche wants to keep his marketing dream around.
"...but the devil lives inside this kid, I swear it. It rises out of him in a mist, this baby-faced defiant wrathful version of Pat Kane, escapes his bodily confines to perform satanic miracles all over the offensive zone. The only thing more fearsome than that assist was the keep-in preceding it. The only thing more unholy than his face is his black magic." GMH
by Illini0509 on Jul 17, 2009 8:30 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Rozner Math
I’m wondering if I missed something, because I didn’t see anything about the the cap being lower in 2010. Rozner had the cap at about 50M, so…
56.7 – 50 = 6.7
6.7 + 8.3 = 15M – Holy Shiitth!
You haven’t seen anything about the cap being lower? It’s been said over and over again from plenty of reputable sources. Maybe it’s not a guarantee that it will drop that drastically, but it’s a possibility.
Even with a 56.7 cap the Hawks still have some really tough choices to make.
When I'm not battling in California:
http://www.cyclelikesedins.com
by jamestobrien on Jul 17, 2009 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Rozner
Worst part is, I get the Daily Herald to read Sassone, and that assbag Rozner’s articles are like dingleberries attached to the real sports writers section…
I’m looking forward to the new use of his name as an adjective instead of only part of the phrase “look at what that asshole Rozer wrote today”
by Tiocfaidh ar La on Jul 16, 2009 10:21 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
But what if...
Someone offers 2 of Kane/Toews/Keith monstrous contracts? Not sure which hockey columnist mentioned this but I read that one NHL exec said the Hawks could be in trouble if teams did a “double” on them, that is, 2 separate teams offered huge amounts to Toews and Keith—the Hawks couldn’t match both. The key to keeping all these guys is getting their contracts done before they get to RFA status. The problem with that, of course, is agents. I don’t know who the agent for any of these guys is, but they’re sure to advise the kids to wait for offers to get the biggest payday. So as much as I appreciate Sam Fels calming logic here, I can’t help but worry a bit. Or, a lot. (After all, I AM a Chicago fan.)
(And just out of curiosity, why is everyone so down on Buff all the time? Didn’t he play his best in the playoffs, and help the team out a lot, and isn’t that when you want players to play their best? Yeah, he was kind of invisible against Detroit, but so were most of the Hawks. If we could keep him and help him mature more, he’d be our Holmstrom, wouldn’t he? That’s a good thing, isn’t it?)
I don’t think that it’s everyone being down on Buff. I’m not speaking for everyone, but I get the feeling that a lot of people think that he is replaceable. He has below average hands, very shaky skating, and questionable motivation (referring to regular season, i know you were talking about the playoffs). We have a couple big bodies in Rockford with Beach and Aliu who could potentially replace Buff’s role. He has a large contract that would be nice to have relieved off of the cap in order to sign the Big Three next year. The hope is we can bait a team to take him while his stock is high and potentially get something in return. This is just my perspective though, dunno if it helps.
Well stated response.
Cubs22 wrote what I would write, if I took the time to write cogent thoughts on the Hawks in the offseason.
Got more soul than a sock with a hole.
During the season, I called him “Buffs Blundering Buns of Bleah.” I thought he was better than “Wiggum’s Wobbling Skates of Lead” but that wasn’t all that hard to do. The playoffs started, and he turned into “Buffzilla the Luongo Slayer” I love a hit as much as the next guy, but you have to play hard during the season in order to get to the playoffs. I personally feel that Buff rode his teammates coattails into the playoffs, and then woke up and said “Gee, I guess I’ll come out and play now” I cheered for his plays, but it pissed me off too. If you have that much talent, you should not wait until It means something now! to use it.
Besides, it made it look like he was trying to get the other teams to make an offer in the post season by paying his hardest when everybody is watching. If he plays the coming season with the same intensity that he showed in the playoffs, he will be a force to be reckoned with, but with Sammy gone, who will awaken the beast?
SHOOOOOOOT IT!!!! Anon
by burpchelischili on Jul 17, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions
In the playoffs
Someone here made an awesome wise ass crack by calling him “The recently interested Dustin Byfuglien”. I laughed my ass off at that and still think it’s funny because it was so dead on. He lugs his big ass up and down the ice without distinction all season and then Bam! he’s pissing off Luongo so much he can’t think straight and jokers here are posting his pic on Vancouver’s blog just to rub it in (now that was entertainment) Why were we denied that pleasure all season?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? If Buff could show up ready to judiciously throw his big ass around without getting taken out of the play, I say let him stick around. If he returns to the “Typically uninterested Buff” I say let him go if we can get something for him. The downside is that we probably don’t get much for him if he isn’t having a good year.
Plan B
So at this point, who would you could be the Plan B in net? If there was any way for Bowman to move Huet (at least he’s contract), you know he’d listen. But outside of Marty Biron, which of the avaliable goalies even capable of being a #1 guy in the NHL? Would you trust a your Stanley Cup contending team to Biron? If you say “yes,” then you might want to talk to a Flyers fan! ;-).
Moving Huet’s contract makes all of the cap-hell problems go away…. but I’m not sure there’s even a viable Plan B avaliable at this point.
View From My Seats
Sarcasm: God's gift to smart people...
My Plan B
Though I don’t think he’ll stick around Minny all year would be Josh Harding. But you’d have to see what’s available when and if you decide to move Huet along.
www.secondcityhockey.com
I’m on board on trying to acquire Harding too and Minny just signed former Jacket backup Wade Dubielewicz today and reportedly the Wild don’t want to pay Harding what he thinks he’s worth so Harding is definitely acquirable.
by Crease Monkey on Jul 17, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
If we can move Huet.....
Nabokov can be had from the Sharks for a good trade. I’d sure like to see him wearing a Hawks jersey.
by Return of the Roar on Jul 17, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Well....
Two things that I believe will happen….
A. Patrick Sharp will be moved, which will piss me off to no end.
B. Duncan Keith is odd man out after next season. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are going to be signed no matter what. They are the face of the franchise and the organ-I-zation is not going to get themselves back into the corner of losing either one of them.
So what happens next?
A. Toews signs a new deal within the next few months
B. Sharp is traded early season
C. Kane signs a new deal after next season
D. Keith is allowed to walk via free agency next offseason
$136 million payroll for a .500 style ballclub. Good work Jim.
Does Kane sign his new contract before or after he gets his clock cleaned?
If so, does the hit make him woozy enough to take less money?
Technically speaking, restricted free agents don’t walk anywhere. Teams snag them.
FifthFeather.com
by El Duque's Raft on Jul 17, 2009 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions
The simple math makes that seem pretty undeniable.
I broke the situation down (before the Versteeg deal) in excruciating detail and it will be difficult for the Hawks to keep TWO of them, let alone three. Even if they’re able to get away from some of their worst contracts.
The problem is that the Hawks are full of fairly significant contracts.
Look at all the $3+ million men, totaling about $20 million for 6 players:
Sharp (basically 4), Bolland, Versteeg, Fugly, Seabrook, Barker.
Then the big contracts, which add up to more than $17 million or close to a THIRD of a $56 million cap:
Huet, Campbell, Hossa.
And there’s still a few guys who take up a considerable amount of cap space relative to their value in Kopecky, Sopel, Beach, Brouwer.
Their cap situation is a full fledged mess.
When I'm not battling in California:
http://www.cyclelikesedins.com
by jamestobrien on Jul 17, 2009 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions
That's operating under the assumption that all 6 of those players will still be on the roster come next July 1,
Quite frankly that looks to be a far stretch of the imagination as Sam pointed out. Clearing out 2 of those guys should make more than enough room.
FifthFeather.com
by El Duque's Raft on Jul 17, 2009 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions
In the post I calculated a dream scenario of moving some of their bad contracts and they would STILL struggle to fill a team if they added all three.
My guess is that the Hawks might have to move a good player they don’t want to move (Sharp) in combination with a bad contract to clear space. It’s basically the salary cap version of giving a dog medicine by engulfing it in peanut butter.
Go to CapGeek.com and play around with the numbers. You’ll see just how difficult it’s going to be.
When I'm not battling in California:
http://www.cyclelikesedins.com
by jamestobrien on Jul 17, 2009 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions
So you're saying Sam's scenario of keeping all 3 with 8.2 of space
is fiction? (Opens up window and puts one foot on the ledge)
FifthFeather.com
by El Duque's Raft on Jul 17, 2009 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions
So you’re saying Sam’s scenario of keeping all 3 with 8.2 of space
is fiction? (Opens up window and puts one foot on the ledge)
Hahaha.
(Love the name, BTW.)
When I'm not battling in California:
http://www.cyclelikesedins.com
by jamestobrien on Jul 17, 2009 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions
We’ll take Sharpie for ya.
A couple of reliable AHL players (Olivier Latendresse, Luc Locois) likely costing nothing and a 5th rounder in 2011.
Sharpe has got the skills to be a great second line leader, and the Habs would like something more substantial there.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jul 17, 2009 8:16 AM CDT reply actions
Offer sheets to the Big 3
Am I missing something? If any team sends an offer sheet to any of these guys that is worth more than $5 mil per year that the Hawks don’t match, then don’t they have to also fork over 4 first round draft picks? It seems to me that it would take an offer sheet of at least $5 mil to nab any one of these guys from the Hawks. Four 1st rounders seems to me like a shit-ton of future talent to give up for one guy who will already be costing said shit-ton of cap space.
Absolutely
I think that we will be able to sign all three for close to six million dollars, and no one is really going to outbid us by so much that we won’t match it at that point.
However, the range is a little different:
$5,231,249 – $6,539,062
Two 1st’s, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
$6,539,062 or more
Four 1st round picks
by warrenjm2006 on Jul 17, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Its adjusted yearly according to the increase in player salaries.
twitter.com/kaner88
by Original Six on Jul 17, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Another Fine Post
Great breakdown- restores my faith that this thing can get done.
In sum, you’re saying that Kane’s market value may be above his true value, and the opposite for Keith. In the real world, this will affect the ability, and even the desiraility, of signing all three.
PP QB?
Apparently, GMs will pay through the nose for this. I don’t get it, but even if it’s true, it’s not obvious to me that Campbell and Barker ($10.3 million next year) have unique skills here.
Last year:
Campbell (G/A/S%) came up with 7/45/6.5%
Barker 6/34/5.9%
Keith 8/36/4.6%
OK, Keith has the worst shot of the three, but he still had more goals, and similar overall offensive production, despite getting basically zero PP time the second half of the season.
In my mind, he could easily be a PP QB, but he can actually play defense, which is what the team needs. In hockey finance terms, this costs him millions of dollars. Go figure.
The #1 legitimate criticism of Keith is his size/lack of physicality. Again, PP QBs apparently don’t get dinged for this (Campbell has one big hit in his career and Barker is a marshmallow.)
I agree that Seabrook’s physicality (alone among Hawk defensemen) makes him arguably as important as Keith, but Seebs brings very little on offense beside an OK shot. This is why Dunc and Seebs complement each other so beautifully as a shutdown pair.
I’m minorly concerned about Keith’s post-Stafford-cheap-shot-fall-off, but I think this is way overdone.
First, the fall off was from an all-world standard.
Also, maybe he was a bit fatigued from logging so much ice the first half of the year.
Plus, he seemed to be skating on one leg in the playoffs.
Despite all this, he was the only Hawk defensemean with a positive +/- in the post-season.
At the same time, everyone agrees that Campbell had a great playoff, but based on the evidence, it brought him up to a level just below the Keith-fall-off standard.
Finally, Dunc has a huge heart. No one works harder, and it’s so obvious to anyone who watches him on even one shift. I have every reason to expect he will reestablish himself as one of the top D-men in the leage this year.
If the NHL undervalues what he brings to the table, so much the better for us.
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