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Chicago Blackhawks 2009 Fantasy Preview

Editor's Note - Hey all, Wamsley works with Robert over at Habs Eyes On The Prize and also runs Fantasy Sense Hockey.  He's been kind enough to put together a look at the Blackhawks from a fantasy perspective.  If you look around the other SBN sites or on Fantasy Sense Hockey, you can find out more information on the other teams.  This is part of our kickoff of fantasy hockey here on Second City Hockey - expect a post about our leagues (plural?) later today

Blackhawks_medium

Was Dale Tallon fired because he bungled the qualifying offers of Cam Barker and Kris Versteeg? Or is it because he may have handcuffed the ascent of one of the most talented young rosters in the league?

The Hawks were poised to become a powerhouse when Tallon broke out the checkbook and blew his brains out. Why sign Brian Campbell to 7M+ per season when you have a young dynamic defensive trio in Barker, Seabrook and Keith? Why overpay for Huet, a goaltender who has only started 50+ games once, when you already have Khabibulin? Why sign Hossa to $5M+ 12-year deal when you still haven't locked up Kane, Toews and Keith to long-term deals? At $42M locked up on 12 players next season and a decreasing cap, where is the money for two of the most dynamic players in the game?

Tallon was fired because the Hawks are trying to undo the damage he has done and save the future of the next NHL power. Is Tallon going to remain in the NHL? Or will his resume of reckless spending on the Hawks qualify him for a job with Bear Stearns? The Hawks are stacked with fantasy talent and are poised to challenge the powerhouse Wings in 2010, but I am more interested in how Bowman removes the cement shoes that threaten to sink the Hawks brilliant return to the top of the NHL.

For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.

Star-divide

Quenneville_chrt_medium

Looking at Quenneville's history should put a smile on the face of Lil Jon and 20 cent fantasy owners.

In 11 NHL seasons, Quenneville's teams have finished in the top 10 in scoring 8 times with an average ranking of 7th, with 9 of his players managing to crack the 80 pt barrier.

Although he likes to employ an aggressive offensive attack, Quenneville does not sacrifice the defensive zone. The worst defensive seasons of his career revolve around Pronger's 2003 season in which he missed 77 games and the aging Avalanche squad who hung a jersey in the goal for three seasons.

The Hawks possesses the perfect compliment of young, tough puck moving defensemen to replicate the defensive success of last season. Huet will not be insulated like a Lemaire coached team, but his numbers should remain static in 2010.

Toews_chrt_medium

Although Lil Jon's production curve is very similar to his 2008 season, Jonathan Toews blossomed in the second half and began to show the dominant goal scorer that begat the comparisons to Steve Yzerman. Over his final 29 games, Toews produced 29 points (17G/12A), including an 11 game stretch where he potted 11 goals. Toews continued his strong play throughout the playoffs where your space is removed and you are forced to fight for every inch. His competitive nature helped will the Hawks to the Conference Finals. When his sheer will is combined with his intelligence, explosiveness, vision and ridiculous finishing ability, it is time to send out the invitations for his 2010 coming out party.

Kane_chrt_medium

After treating the rest of the NHL like a cab driver through Christmas, an ankle injury derailed Patrick Kane's breakout campaign. Heading into the Winter Classic, Kane was in the top 10 in NHL scoring, but his desire to play in the outdoor game instead of resting his ankle cost him and the Hawks as his production dropped from 1.2 PPG to 0.35 PPG (7 points in 20 games). Although undersized, Kane's elusiveness, hands, explosive skating and release make him difficult to contain one on one. He is a fantasy star right now, be he still has to mature physically and defensively before he becomes a true NHL superstar.

Hossa_chrt_medium

If the Marian Hossa signing results in the net loss of one of Toews, Kane or Keith, was it worth it? I still remain puzzled in the investment, but there is no doubt that he remains one of the most dominant wingers in hockey. Hossa has been a lock for a PPG over the last 5 seasons due to his ability to change pace, find the soft spot in defensive zone coverage's and surprise with his explosive release. When he is committed to the defensive zone he is one of the most complete players in the game. With new surroundings and the rust from shoulder surgery, Hossa may struggle out of the gate. When he begins to develop chemistry with Kane and Toews, he will return to his historical production in 2010.

Barker_chrt_medium

Cam Barker finally began to fulfill his monster potential as he matched Campbell's 2009 production at 1/7th of the cost. Add in 29 PP points in 69 games and it begs the question "What was the point of Brian Campbell again?" His final point total is even more impressive when you take into account that he went scoreless in 10 games to finish the regular season. Barker has made the leap and his package of elite skills and size project him to be an All-Star. At 23 years old it is easy to forget that he is still a work in progress. Barker's defensive inadequacies were exposed in the playoffs. As he gains experience he will rely less on his ability to recover, and use positioning and size to his advantage. Conserving energy through efficiency will result in easier minutes and with it, a fantasy stud.

Huet_chrt_medium

Cristobal Huet finally has the ball to himself. The question is will he run with it? Or fumble it like he did with Carey Price in 2008? Huet always produces solid fantasy numbers but over his 5-year career he has only started 50+ games once, and won more than 20 games only once. Huet has won less than half his career starts (103 of 207) and with zero fantasy value for ties and OT losses the statistic becomes alarming. The temptation remains to grab him because of his powerful team, but with durability concern I would be surprised if Crawford/Niemi did not eat into his minutes in 2010.

Campbell_chrt_medium

You have to wonder how much Brian Campbell was affected by the $56.8M contract he signed before the 2009 campaign. Campbell's inconsistency was frustrating, and when he fails to produce he can be exposed as a defensive liability. When he does raise his compete level, his ability to force a frenetic pace becomes a devastating weapon for the Hawks talented forwards. Campbell has dynamic skating ability and vision. When paired with his puck moving ability, he has the ability to dictate the pace. He is among the elite fantasy defensemen in the NHL; the question remains whether it will be in Chicago long-term.

Keith_chrt_medium

Duncan Keith exploded for a career high in 2009. Not only did he break the magic 40 pt barrier, but he also led all defensemen with a +33. Over the last 2 seasons Keith has produced a +63, third best in the NHL. Keith is a workhorse and his tenacity belies his smaller frame. His puck moving is not as accomplished as teammates Campbell and Barker, but his mobility, toughness and positioning make him a more complete player at this point.

Versteeg_chrt_medium

Kris Versteeg was one of the surprises of the 2009 fantasy season finishing second in rookie scoring and earning a Calder nomination. Tallon's unfortunate clerical error did not allow the Hawks the chance to further assess his upside in 2010; one glance at his production decline in 2009 should result in red flags. After a first quarter in which he averaged a PPG, his production steadily declined to less than half a point per game during the stretch drive. Versteeg's numbers experienced a bounce back in the playoffs, but the majority of his production took place on the PP. He is very elusive and possesses a non-stop engine and his creativity and playmaking ability making him a productive PP force. As long as he received PP time, he will be a viable fantasy player, but his red flags leave me unwilling to invest.

Sharp_chrt_medium

Patrick Sharp's production dipped slightly in the 2009 season as a knee injury cost him 16 games. With his quickness and agility compromised, Sharp struggled to replace that edge and his production suffered. Sharp's greatest value lies in the chemistry he has formed with Toews and Kane. Sharp's strong two-way ability, his ability to control the tempo and finish compliment the two young stars well. With their continued maturation, Sharp looks like a lock for 60+ if healthy.

Bolland_chrt_medium

After some prolific junior scoring seasons, David Bolland's offensive potential began to surface at the NHL level last season. I am hesitant to label 2009 a breakout year with the knowledge that Bolland may center Hossa and Ladd in 2010. With his solid two-way game earning Quenneville's trust and the only center competition being Kyle Beach and John Madden, Bolland has every opportunity to improve upon his 47 point high. Bolland is feisty, agile and anticipates the play well, with a friendly offensive coach and an elite defense core that will provide the puck in stride, the Hawks and Bolland could provide fantasy owners with a prolific offensive season.

Chi_prospects_medium

The Blackhawks system does not possess any surefire NHLers, but they do have an abundance of players with high end potential. With two power forwards who make Todd Bertuzzi look stable and a couple of foreign players who lack North American exposure, the Chicago farm has plenty of Boom/Bust potential.

Beach_chrt_medium

Is there a better representation of the Hawks prospects than Kyle Beach? Boom or Bust? All-Star potential or AHL washout? Beach has all the skills of a premier power forward in the league, but the possibility exists that he may never be able to reign in his Tysonesque temper. He has already intentionally fired a puck into the crowd and incited a brawl, and when people refer to him as a Bertuzzi level impact player, they fail to add "without the Steve Moore incident". It is not hard to overlook these sins when it is coupled with his fearless approach to the net and his elite finishing ability, an approach that led him to explode with Lethbridge for 33 points in his final 24 games (15G, 18A). Red flags abound, but his implosion may come after success, making him a low risk/high reward pick. Pick him up and if he has a big year deal him and avoid the likely meltdown (think of what Bertuzzi would have returned in 2002), and if he melts down in the next two years, dump him at little cost.

Aliu_chrt_medium

Akim Aliu is what you would get if Ron Artest had decided on CCM Tacks instead of Air Jordans. A tantalizing blend of size and skill, Aliu when inspired is a dominant power forward who can physically dominate as well as navigate the ice with the skill set of a much smaller man. Immaturity and a stubborn demeanour have frustrated his coaches at every level, but his unique skills will likely assure numerous opportunities at the NHL level. Toews leadership will be put to the test and Hawk fans can only hope that with maturity that Aliu surrenders the Alpha Dog attitude and falls in line.

Niemi_chrt_medium

Crawford or Niemi? Niemi or Crawford? I am going with Antti Niemi as he is just too talented and brings too much upside to the table not to give him the edge here. An intelligent, athletic butterfly goalie with sharp reflexes, Niemi enjoyed a tremendous North American debut posting a 2.43 GAA and a .913 save % in 38 games. With Khabibulin gone, an NHL roster spot available and Huet's spotty durability record, one of Crawford and Niemi will have an opportunity; I prefer the odds on Niemi.

Makarov_chrt_medium

At first glance I got excited and projected future greatness for the love child of Igor Larianov and Sergei Makarov. After seeing Vladamir Krutov eat his way out of the NHL, I came to the realization that he had played the role of the surrogate mother. KLM bloodlines meant a 60% chance he would be an NHL star, right? Makarov spent last season with St. Petersburg of the KHL racking up 17 points in 42 games. Don't let those low totals dissuade your from taking this up and coming Russian playmaker. Makarov is a solid 2-way player with above average speed, but he needs to bulk up if he's going to have any kind of impact at the next level. Another low risk/high reward bargain that can be had on the Hawks. Stash and grab and watch intently when he finally arrives in North America for good.

Skille_chrt_medium

Back in 2006, Jack Skille was making an impact in the college ranks and was receiving universal praise throughout the hockey world even though his production left us wanting more. Skille remains one of the Blackhawks top prospects, but he is now in danger of losing that status if he doesn't raise his level this season. He has improved at the AHL level over the last 2 years but the Hawks want more from their investment. Arguably the fastest skater in the Blackhawk system, Skille possesses a cannonading shot. Always leaves me unsatisfied and should be further along at age 22. If Skille can maintain his aggression, use his size to engage in more physical activity and improve his anticipation he will be a top six forward. If not, his future will lie in the bottom six. Track his progress, and if his swagger returns, jump on him.

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Comments

Display:

34 Goals for Hossa?

After missing 2 months? Works for me!

by Geoffhawk on Sep 14, 2009 12:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Couple of things

surprising Kane would have a much better +/- with relatively close point totals compared to last year. We all think he would never do great because of all the PP points.

What is Hossa’s projection post-injury?

Huet is projected for 13 more wins and only 1 more less? That makes us President trophy favorites!!!

Campbell is 100% plateau.

Hopefully Versteeg does better than that.

Niemi as backup? I would like a site poll to get an opinoin from the board. I would better Crawford as Niemi has more upside and could use the Rockford starts more.

Praise Him!!

by Hawk is God on Sep 14, 2009 1:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Capologist?

I thought we covered the ground on big ticket signings and laid this at Stan’s doorsttep in his role as capologist.

by cliffkoroll on Sep 14, 2009 4:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

There are so many things WRONG with this...

…I can’t even believe it. Neimi, unless Crawford has a horrific pre-season, will be sent down to Rockford so his admission as the Hawks back-up once again shows that you’re gathering your information from the Hockey News and not this site for we have already touched on this subject.

“What was the point of Brian Campbell again?”

Well for starters our PP was at or near the bottom of the NHL standings for years, so the signing of Campbell at the time made all the sense in the world and still does. If you think any of us Hawks fans would feel comfortable with Barker running the show on the PP you’re dead wrong. Campbell was the main reason why the PP was so effective at times during the regular season and into the playoffs where he was at times (especially in the 2nd round) out best defenceman. Campbell remains a good signing, but may have to be moved in the off-season in order to retain Keith, Toews, and Kane; but then again who knows what the salary-cap will look like July 1st, 2010.

Why overpay for Huet, a goaltender who has only started 50+ games once, when you already have Khabibulin?

Why? Because Khabibulin was probably the worst investment the Hawks have ever made heading into last season and that Tallon was being applauded for his efforts to get rid of the Bulin Wall and send him packing to “Russia with Love”. In the end, the Huet signing actually got Khabibulin to live up to his contract and play to his capability something he never did in his 3 previous seasons. Granted Huet has only started 50+ games once but I ask you this: As a Habs fan wouldn’t you have liked Mr. Gainey to re-sign Huet instead of trading him away for nothing (2nd round pick) and having a 2-headed monster in net instead of one incapable netminder in Carey Price (remember Jim Carey)? Huet is more than capable to back-stop a Cup contender like the Hawks.

Tallon was fired because the Hawks are trying to undo the damage he has done and save the future of the next NHL power. Is Tallon going to remain in the NHL? Or will his resume of reckless spending on the Hawks qualify him for a job with Bear Stearns?

Wamsley you have no idea how happy you’ve made John McDonough with this stupid assertion that Tallon is the one that will be remembered that ruined the Hawks if they fail to win a Cup and lose 1 of the 3 in Keith, Toews, and Kane in the process due to the signings of Huet and Campbell. Tallon is the one who built this team with his drafting and knowledge of the game, the one who orchestrated such deals as Sharp for Ellison, and Versteeg for Bochenski so don’t give me this “is Tallon going to remain in the NHL?”.

It's never about the eventual destination, but rather the long journey and its challenging obstacles that are presented and what it takes to overcome them, that makes the taste of success all the more worthwhile!!!

by hawks61 on Sep 14, 2009 5:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed!

To say that Tallon did all this free spending on his own is a load of poo! (The children are present.) There is no way Tallon spent any of this without approval from above. And there’s no way that capologist Bowman didn’t have a say in the matter. And given McDonough’s arrogance and “control-person” mentality, there’s no way he would have given Tallon free reign on Campbell, Huet, or Hossa. (I STILL think McD was behind those contracts anyway.)

Wamsley, are you Rozner’s life partner or something?

by Preacher000 on Sep 14, 2009 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's nice to know

that I am not the only member of the Soup’s Fan Club. Another reason Campbell was signed was to show that the ’Hawks were back in the free agent market. Without that signing, getting Huet or Hossa, would have been very difficult.

Occam's Razor keeps the cutting clean.

by russellguldin on Sep 14, 2009 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

let’s hope this one works out a little better than McCub’s baseball version of this contract in the Soriano signing however. That was supposed to show MLB and the fans that the Cubs front office was serious about winning. Instead it’s hamstrung the franchise along with Z’s contract.

by Crease Monkey on Sep 15, 2009 12:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey guys

Wamsley did all this for free and doesn’t have the benefit of following the team as closely as we all do plus he did previews for most other teams in the league. If you think he’s wrong about something that’s fine and you’re welcome to say your piece – but try not to be a dick about it.

I think it’s pretty spot on and helpful..

by Matthew Dirt on Sep 14, 2009 6:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey Guys
Wamsley did all this for free and doesn’t have the benefit of following the team as closely as we all do

I have no problem with the fact that he has taken his time to do this, in fact I find his projection chart very interesting and knowledgeable and offers a lot of insight into what could possibly happen this season. With Fantasy Hockey fast approaching us it really is interesting to read the charts and gauge how each player could possibly do this season with the prior knowledge of previous seasons, so for that I really did enjoy his article.

you’re welcome to say your piece – but try not to be a dick about it.

Wasn’t trying to be a dick about anything but if he had left it at the projections to go along with the +/- of each player and what they bring to the table then that would be fine, but he didn’t. Instead he took uneducated verbal shots at the Blackhawks, most noteably Dale Tallon, and for that he went little overboard. Is it part jealously? One has to wonder for why all the verbal garbage towards Tallon, Campbell, and Huet to go along with the references to Toews as Lil Jon to go with 20 cent (how original?) for Patrick Kane. If you want to dish it then you better be able to take it, for I don’t think anyone here would have made a seasonal projection about the Canadiens on Habs Eyes on the Prize and ripped into their team like that and if they had did you could expect the same type of reaction over there.

It's never about the eventual destination, but rather the long journey and its challenging obstacles that are presented and what it takes to overcome them, that makes the taste of success all the more worthwhile!!!

by hawks61 on Sep 14, 2009 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You call them shots, I call them unbiased commentary

First off, thanks Matthew.

As for Hawks61, you think Campbell was a good signing. That is your opinion. But I view it as short term thinking. The fact that signing allowed them to sign Hossa and Huet has put them in the cap hell they are in today. This is not revisionist history by me, I have been all over the Bruins, Flyers AND Canadiens since the beginning of last season for short term thinking, it is consistent with my opinions on my site.

The Hawks were not going to win the Cup last season, so why not sign a short term PP quarterback? Somebody to bridge the gap for Barker? Instead Tallon wraps up him up for 7 years? What type of cap management is that? The Hawks were in good shape with Khabibulin and Havlat coming off the cap to re-up every remaining RFA, now they are committed to $43M on 12 players without Kane, Toews, Keith and Hjalmarsson signed? And after 2010 they need to re-up Seabrook and Byfuglien. What if the cap drops to $50M next season as some have predicted? Then what?

As for Khabibulin. That was a mistake because what good is a marquee goaltender on a terrible team. You think it was a coincidence that his numbers improved as the Hawks got better? Every season in Chicago his numbers went up. He wasn’t the problem, the team was the problem. He didn’t win a Stanley Cup and become crap overnight. Place Martin Brodeur on the 2005-07 Blackhawks and he would have been mediocre as well. Remember, I watched Huet for the better part of three seasons in Montreal and know full well the goaltender you are getting. He isn’t better than Khabibulin.

You can hold the opinion that Tallon is a good GM, I don’t share it. You have far from convinced me he is. You are far from the first person who has disagreed with me, and I can definitely take the criticism. Choose to ignore my posts, try to ridicule them, it matters not to me. I stand by the logic, I am not asking you to.

www.fantasysensehockey.net

by Wamsley on Sep 14, 2009 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did I miss something with Barker? I mean he had a nice season and all, but do we really think that he is as solid a powerplay QB as Campbell is? Not to mention that there was never much indication that Barker was/is going to turn into that type of PP guy prior to last season. I understand that it generally takes young defensemen a little longer to develop at the NHL level, but prior to last season, I think Barker was a bit behind the curve for such a high draft pick. That’s why a guy like Campbell was necessary. And I don’t really buy into the whole “they weren’t going to win the Cup last season” argument. Says who? The Hawks were one of the last 4 teams left playing. That’s not too far off. After the 07-08 season, there was no reason to sit around and develop/re-build for yet another year. The Hawks were capable last season of making a run at it.

Thanks for the fantasy preview. I’m not trying to be a dick!

by Geoffhawk on Sep 15, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed. And to call Barker’s skating ability even remotely close to on par with Campbell’s would simply be laughable. To call Campbell anything but an upgrade over Barker is probably inaccurate right now

http://accordingtwomey.blogspot.com

by hawksfan21 on Sep 15, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's what I was getting at!

Once again I will reitirate that I truly enjoyed reading your upcoming seasonal projections on each player and what could happen, but what’s with voicing your opinion on Huet (sour grapes perhaps?), the Tallon stiuation, and Campbell (whether or not it was a good signing?). Do you see me go on Habs Eye on the Prize running my mouth off of what a mess Gainey has created in Montreal? No.
Each team has it own fanbase-respect that, that’s all. Don’t come over here and run your mouth off and expect nobody to say something in the end. Unbiased commentary? Who are you kidding for nobody has agreed with anything you’ve said so far, therefore it has become biased as in jealous of the Blackhawks success kind of biased. You don’t like Tallon as a GM, or Huet as a number #1 netminder, or Brian Campbell then that’s fine, but when you voice your uneducated opinion about another team, on it’s site nonetheless, don’t cry wolf when you get bitten.
Which makes me wonder? What was the sole purpose of your post? It was supposed to be about the upcoming season projections of Blackhawks players right? Then what’s with the verbal garbage? My personal opinion, you made a post about numerical projections and how numerical sequences can logistically lead to a statistical projection and turned it into a personal opinion column which was ridiculous.

It's never about the eventual destination, but rather the long journey and its challenging obstacles that are presented and what it takes to overcome them, that makes the taste of success all the more worthwhile!!!

by hawks61 on Sep 14, 2009 10:35 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

take a chillaxitin

Dude, relax…its an online blog. He voiced some very common opinions probably held by other Hawks fans. Opinions make news interesting. This site, a Blackhawks fan forum, probably isn’t the best place to lobby for removal of personal opinions.

by torpedo0126 on Sep 17, 2009 7:12 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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