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Mid-season Report: Shots and Attempts Blocked for Defensemen

You can blame this all on hackerar. who in this post said:

I’d like to see Seabs get more shots [through], he probably gets his shot blocked at a higher % than any blueliner on this team.

So out of purely academic curiosity, I went right ahead and checked. Naturally, what started as a question about Seabrook turned into something more than that. (All after the jump, to spare those who aren't interested in the stats of the game.)

Star-divide

Disclaimers:

  1. The conclusions reached will be drawn purely from the data presented, which can admittedly provide a highly narrow view.
  2. While I may be a little crazy in going through the numbers for this, I'm not completely insane. Thus, I will not be able to provide anyone with the necessary data to compare how the Hawks' blue line is performing relative to either the Hawks' forwards (which is a weird comparison to make) or to other teams' blue lines (let's face it, no other team is worth my time and effort).
  3. No, I can't compare this to the past seasons either.

Methodology:

  1. In the interest of providing some sort of developmental timeline, I've broken down the data into 10-game blocks.(Don't worry, there's a total at the end too.)
  2. The three stats I recorded are Shots, Attempts Blocked (A/B), and Goals. Since we're only talking about potential offensive contributions, I refrained from also taking a look at the shots that the defensemen have blocked.
  3. The stats I've computed for are Shooting Percentage and % of A/B over S, which is the best name I could come up with for this stat. Basically it's the percentage of shots that never get through over the total number of attempted shots (shots that are eventually blocked and shots that reach the goalie).

Results and Notes:

Mid-seasondreview-1-10_medium

  • Notable in Games 1-10 is how so many of Duncan Keith's shots go through. This % of A/B over S is his lowest over the first half of the season, and his shooting percentage was highest here as well. A possible conclusion to draw from this is that he was probably "cherry-picking" shots and playing smartly enough to take his opportunities when he sees them.
  • Hammer needs a little bit of work in his shooting. Shots that don't go through are twice as much as the shots that do.
  • The next best % of A/B over S belongs to Cam Barker. One can argue that, like Keith, perhaps he is slightly more capable of finding the open lane than other blue liners. Foreshadowing Alert: Take a look at his shot attempt totals now, and note the numbers as we move through the first half of the season.
  • Like I said earlier, I don't have forward stats or the stats of the rest of the league to compare against, but I think we can say the average Attempts Blocked/Total Attempts seems to be around the 40% to 50% mark. Let's go ahead and arbitrarily make 45% the "average".

Mid-seasondreview-11-20_medium

  • Compared to the 29 shots he attempted in the first ten games of the season, Keith's 2nd 10-game shot attempts is now 42, a 61.9% increase in his attempts at offense. Of course, half of those shots were blocked, which meant, likely, that he has started to cherry-pick less.
  • Despite shooting less, Hammer is still getting more shots blocked than going through.
  • Through the first 20 games, the blue line had almost half their shots blocked. (182 total shots, 160 attempts blocked)

Mid-seasondreview-21-30_medium

  • There were a few aberrations that I noted in this stretch: During the Vancouver game (when we were outshot 17-30), only Seabrook (3 S, 0 A/B) and Campbell (1 S, 1 A/B) registered shots among all the blue liners. Barker had 1 A/B, and the rest (Keith particularly) weren't able to register even an attempt. I don't remember enough of the game to tell you what my "eye test" assessment of it would be, but the numbers suggest that Vancouver did a damn fine job of suffocating our D.
  • In the Pittsburgh game (Dec 5), Keith registered 3 S and a whopping 8 A/B. In the Buffalo game (Dec 11), Keith had 6 S and 2 A/B. This marks the beginning of what I dubbed the December Keithsplosion, where Keith went through a stretch of games with 5 or 6 shots on goal. (Of his 52 attempts in this stretch, a respectable 40.38% were blocked.)
  • 44% - 50% of Seabrook's shot attempts end up blocked.
  • From 39 shot attempts in the 1st 10 games, to 25 shot attempts in the next 10, to 23 shot attempts in the game 21-30 mark for Barker. This could be a function of reduced ice time (good Lord don't make me check) but for some reason, he's taking or he's able to take fewer chances. All 4 of his goals this season thus far were scored in his first 20 games.
  • I believe this was around the time that our PP was at its clown-shoe-est, and I remember some of us wondering why the fuck Campbell wasn't shooting as much. The eye test lives up to the stats. Soupy only had 20 shot attempts here compared to 31 and 37 in Games 1-10 and 11-20, respectively.

Mid-seasondreview-31-40_medium

  • Hey look, at the same time he scores 3 goals, Campbell has only 24.32% of his shot attempts blocked. This is the lowest % of any blue liner with at least 20 attempts. Probably better decision-making (on when to shoot, considering an attempt that is blocked could turn into an opponent rushing down to your side of the ice) here on his part.
  • Hammer seems to operate under the belief that anyone wearing the other team's jersey is a goalie. (Don't hate. I love the guy as much as the next person. I'm just saying.)
  • I am running out of things to observe that haven't already been pointed out.

Mid-seasondreview-41-43_medium

  • Considering we're only 3 games into this 10-game stretch, I'm only putting this up here so you know what the last 3 games of the spreadsheet totals are.

Mid-seasondreview-total_medium

General Observations (aka Sweeping Statements Not Meant to be Taken as Gospel):

  • Keith started the year with a better number of his shot attempts going through, but overall it's Soupy who holds the better percentage, both in more shots going through and in his shooting percentage. Campbell's only starting to shoot more again, and with the help of his magical new sticks (think the Hawks will write a children's book about that?) he's finding the offensive touch that we knew he had.
  • Keith has picked up his oh-ffense by quite a bit from the beginning of the season to the halfway mark. I can't say anything about their A/B in previous seasons, but in an interesting look at Career Regular Season statistics between Keith and Campbell, Keith routinely has more shots. Keith appears to be able to find more opportunities to shoot at the net without hitting any of the opposing team's players, so I suppose we can say he needs to work on his shooting % (or the accuracy of his shot) in our mid-season evaluation of his play.
  • Among regular blue liners, Seabrook has the second-highest rate of shot attempts that are blocked instead of going through. So yeah, hackerar was onto something.
  • Hammer's a hilarious 61.67%, so I guess if he needs to work on anything, it's making sure he is able to pick the right time to shoot.
  • Barker's fairly decent at getting his shots through most of the time (41.90%, next to Campbell) but he hasn't been shooting as often as he used to. Again, that's probably a function of reduced ice time, but it could just also be indicative of generally lackluster play.

In Conclusion:

  • Curiosity is an unholy thing.
  • I should probably stop reading SCH in the middle of the work day too.
  • I've probably missed a few things, particularly in analyzing the offensive output of Sopel and Hendry. (Which, okay. Do we really need to?) Anyway, feel free to add more comments/thoughts/observations.

5 recs  |  Comment 27 comments

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Shots that missed the net

Every time D man launches a puck netward, it is not a shot, so Seabrook has 30 missed shots and 16 assists which means 46 more pucks got through? Sounds about right.

"All questions must be submitted in writing"

by laaarmer on Jan 7, 2010 1:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe you included the missed shots in your total.

Nice work by the way

"All questions must be submitted in writing"

by laaarmer on Jan 7, 2010 1:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I buy the 30 missed shots.........

but you can’t include the 16 assists as ‘shots getting through from the blueline’. Those 16 could be anything, passes from the defensive zone, passes in the offensive zone, etc, see what I mean?

"In an ideal world I would have all 10 fingers on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching."

by hackerar on Jan 7, 2010 1:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you there

Some of those blocks are not “shots” either, though (through).

"All questions must be submitted in writing"

by laaarmer on Jan 7, 2010 2:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

crap

Forgot about the missed shots. Whatever, I’m not going back there.

by chiblackhawks on Jan 7, 2010 2:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

even though

now that I think about it, it could probably help us gauge something else, like how much their aim needs to improve.

by chiblackhawks on Jan 7, 2010 2:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you probably shouldn't add them to the analysis

If you miss the net…….sure you get the shot “through”, but does it really matter?

"In an ideal world I would have all 10 fingers on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching."

by hackerar on Jan 7, 2010 2:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

They may be passes and they are finding the lane to get it through. Assist count as a point.

"All questions must be submitted in writing"

by laaarmer on Jan 7, 2010 3:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

if you're thinking about it like that....

then we’re really getting away from the original nature of my post (the one that chiblackhawks referenced).

"In an ideal world I would have all 10 fingers on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching."

by hackerar on Jan 7, 2010 3:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I know.

"All questions must be submitted in writing"

by laaarmer on Jan 7, 2010 3:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you're the man

Thanks for looking into all of this. Where did you get the A/B stat from?

Note: My original comment was supposed to say “get more shots through” (in stead of though).

PS (not directed at chiblackhawks): I love seabrook (how can anyone not?), I was just trying to point out how he could (maybe) go from a B+ to an A.

"In an ideal world I would have all 10 fingers on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching."

by hackerar on Jan 7, 2010 1:37 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I would say anytime, but I wouldn't really mean that...

A/B can be found in the “Event Summary” report of every game recap.

I’ll edit that so it’s clear too.

by chiblackhawks on Jan 7, 2010 2:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hammer

2 more A/B and 2 missed last night. No shots.

Pearl Vision or Lasik for him. He is paired with 51, so his offensive production shouldn’t really matter.

Banner night for Seabrook. 1 shot, no A/B. He missed one (but I’m sure it was a pass)

"All questions must be submitted in writing"

by laaarmer on Jan 8, 2010 8:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Bruins announcer

Obvioulsy did not read this because he said Seabrook is one of the best at getting shots through

"All questions must be submitted in writing"

by laaarmer on Jan 8, 2010 9:00 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

haha I heard that last night

and immediately thought of this post

by gmh on Jan 8, 2010 6:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I might have the same gift as the SCH guys.......

calling someone out (sort of, not really though) and then they show me up. Seabs got a hard shot through, nice rebound (alot of his shots will end up as rebounds) and Ladd finishes. Good stuff.

"In an ideal world I would have all 10 fingers on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching."

by hackerar on Jan 8, 2010 10:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Incrediby interesting

Thanks for the post. My thought is that I like defensemen shotting into traffic and screens. I don’t like stupid shots where there’s no chance of anything going though, but there’s a fine line. It’s nice to see that there aren’t as many outliers as I would have thought.

by warrenjm2006 on Jan 8, 2010 2:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

This is good stuff

Personally, I like the barrage of shot attempts too. Even the ones that don’t get through have the other guys thinking defense instead of offense (but yeah, there’s a fine line). The number of shots coming from the blue line just seems to add to the whole “score from anywhere, anytime” mystique. I can live with a few stupid shots to keep that going.

"They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!"
"Well, I'd rather have 'em playin' with their toys than playin' with themselves."
"They're too dumb to play with themselves."

by TenMinuteMisconduct on Jan 9, 2010 3:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

As someone who has patrolled the blue line for most of his life.....

The consideration of WHERE a shot might be blocked before you fire will play heavily into the decision of whether to shoot or not….

If there is a clear lane with heavy traffic in front of the net, then go ahead and fire it. If the shot gets blocked (either by your wingers or the opposing d men) there still is the chance of someone jumping on the rebound and capitalizing. Go ahead and fire, try to keep the shot 12 inches off the ice, and hope for the best.

If there is someone pressuring me…..this is the tricky part. Most of the time when I’m lining up a shot and there is someone in my face, I’m more concerned about shotting around the pressure and hoping it goes somewhere near the net.

And if I have no pressure, and no traffic, most of the time, I’m just going to try to fire the shot off the goalies pads, and not try to snipe a corner…..I cant pick a corner from beer league tender, and it’s rare when you see a NHL goalie get sniped on a shot he can see from the point.

To conclude my point……some of the shots that end up getting blocked are actually sound hockey decisions, and some of them aren’t. The important part is WHERE they get blocked.

Other than that…..great work! I love stats, and I love it when someone besides me pays attention to the blueliners.

by fourstringninja on Jan 11, 2010 4:03 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Holy Shit

I found a good use for math! Nice work.

Welcome to the Glibert Arenas Gun Show.

by AirTrafficAJ on Jan 12, 2010 12:12 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Ok,

So is there a place that shows how many shots a player has block himself? I don’t think it would be just D’men on it, because even forwards block shots when on the PK.
I have no doubt that it might be out there somewhere, just, you know, lazy/retarded/what-have-you.

/Note unceasing sarcastic laughter in background.

by burpchelischili on Jan 12, 2010 10:30 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yes

In each and every game summary per game. Unfortunately I can’t find stats that summarize Blocked Shots per season (though I could have SWORN they had it last year).

by chiblackhawks on Jan 12, 2010 11:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought I heard about how Wiggums numbers compared to some blues re-re last year, and I was wondering if Sopel was doing as good as I thought he was.

/Note unceasing sarcastic laughter in background.

by burpchelischili on Jan 12, 2010 12:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sopel do good

Sopel block shot

"All questions must be submitted in writing"

by laaarmer on Jan 12, 2010 3:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sopel say “Ow”

/Note unceasing sarcastic laughter in background.

by burpchelischili on Jan 12, 2010 4:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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