FanPost

Are we really missing that many shots?


Okay so this started as a comment in the recap of the Avs home loss but got too long, because well I like numbers.

Anyway, I like most of you have noticed how it seems like the Hawks have missed a ton of shots.  I wasn't sure however is this was really happening or it just seemed that way because I watch every Hawks game and only 3ish other NHL games a week, and a ton of junior hockey. So I decided to do some poking around and here is what I've found.

According to NHL.com's stat page the Hawks are 7th as a team in missed shots, I assume this includes having shots blocked as there isn't a separate column for that.  WSH, PHI, CGY, SJS, DET, and PIT, have all missed the net more than our four feathered favorites.  

As for individuals, Semin (65) and Ovechkin (62) lead the way accounting for more than half of WSH's misses.  Sharp comes in 6th with 53 misses, and Keith 10th with 46 (second among d-men behind Weber's 54 and ahead of Byfuglien's 44).  Toews has 36 to round out the list of Hawks who miss the net more than once a game.

Sharp and Toews don't really bother me as it seems to be a function of them having to shoot a lot with Kane and Hossa missing time, and more attempts will lead to more misses, as Vinny would say "it happens." Keith on the other hand has 2 goals on 68 shots, which is a team worst 2.9% (among guys with a goal). Factor in the misses and he has 2 goals on 114 shot attempts or a vomit inducing 1.7%.  Also Duncs in the only player in the top 20 of missed shots to also be connecting at less the 5% of shots that get through.  So basically when Keith winds up to shoot you have a 1.75% chance of seeing a goal, a 57.89% chance at seeing a save, and a 40.35% of seeing it hit anything but what he was aiming at. 

On a different note (sorry I'm Asian and ADD so a sortable stats pages are pretty much heaven), Dave Bolland has managed to take 28.2% of all of the Hawks draws, good for 25th in the league.  His 44% winning percentage is the worst in the top 25, and he and Eric Staal are the only 2 under 45% to make the list.  Obviously Toews can't take every draw as he is second (to Crosby) having taken 37.5% off the Hawks draws and is winning at a 4th best in the league rate of 59.9% (he's also take 200 more draws than the 3 guy ahead of him).  I know Q likes to play match-ups and Bolland is somehow at +1, but does he need to take that many draws? I don't really have an answer, as Sharp is 51.3% but a -9 while Dowell is +7 but only slightly better than Bolland at 47.1%; but fuck, I mean a guy who is losing 56% of his draws should be taking over a quarter of your faceoffs each game. 

I would have linked it to the stat pages but damn windows updater auto restarted my laptop and now I'm too lazy to go back and find it all, if you're really interested let me know in the comments and I'll link you to the stats.

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