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Some fun numbers, or maybe not.

54.8% The statistical odds (mine) of the Chicago Blackhawks beating the Vancouver Canucks in their Western Conference Semi-Final Series.

So I was really bored one day or two, I can't remember, and decided to see how on paper this series looks.

I was not quite sure what it would be when I started this little project. I was thinking the Hawks have Home Ice advantage, that they have a better Home vs Canuck Road Record and the reverse for when the Hawks are on the road, the Hawks finished higher in the Conference, and let in fewer goals. But even given this number, not all is great or  bleak. Some key numbers jump out, and I will get to those shortly.

 

First I need to explain the method of my madness (dealing with all these numbers just about drove me mad). Really the only numbers I dealt with were, Goals For, Goals Against (each broken into Home and away), Score First, and Overtime. Now this is a little more than a straight comparison of stats, the formulas used these numbers, breaks them down, and then attempt to regenerate their odds of happening again in a seven game series versus one another, 11,000 times.

First things is first. For all games the percentage of time each team scores a certain number of goals is determined, home and away.

For Example the Hawks scored goals this percentage of the time in Chicago. (Each <10-6 decimal)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.000

0.073

0.220

0.317

0.220

0.098

0.073

0.000

 

Following this, I determined the same for Vancouver Goals against on the road.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0.048

0.073

0.243

0.292

0.121

0.097

0.073

0.024

0.024

 

From here, I determined the average of CHI Home GF and VAN Road GA percentage.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0.024

0.073

0.232

0.305

0.171

0.098

0.073

0.012

0.012

 

If required to fill in a value o 0.000 between to goal percentages with >0.000, I would use the mean of Goals 6 and 8 for example, to fill in 7 for statistical continuity. What these numbers now represent the mean percentage that this team will score that many goals.

I used the same process to determine the average percentage of both teams in Chicago and Vancouver.

Now I take this numbers for each team, and set them up for the corresponding game in CHI or VAN in Excel. Now each team for each game has a cell with this fixed value, and each cell is also given a random number (0.000000 – 1.000000) by the Excel Random Number Generator (RNG). If the value in the RNG was greater than the value for the corresponding goal, that is the amount of goals that team would have for that game. Each team RNG is done independent of the other, so goals are determined without consequence to other games or the other team. To make this work, in this above Blackhawks for example, in order for the Hawks to be awarded five goals for the game, the RNG would need to generate a number greater than goals 6(0.073)+7(0.012)+8 (0.012)=0.097. Keep in mind here I am only showing 10-3 and clipping, not rounding numbers. The actual numbers are less than 10-6,which is why 0.097 is a little off 0.098.

So when Excel RNG produces a number, if it were greater than1.000- 0.097(0.903) but less than1.000- 0.024 (0.976) (7 + 8 goals), CHI would have 5 goals for that game. The Cell is designed to return goals from 0-8 (The most either team allowed or scored during the regular season). This was done for each team, for each game for seven games. Through more formulas any games over the needed for one team to obtain 4 wins, were negated to zero value, and removed from further computations.

In the event of a tie, I used a hybrid number determined from Home and Away OT records and Scores First games(not win %). Since regular season OT is not the same as playoff OT, scores first is not the same sudden victory during the regular season as it is in playoff OT, but each does have value of what happens in playoff OT, I used both to form an aggregate. So an average of Home and Road OT and scores first was determined, using the mean of both stats similar to the ones I described above. Once again a RNG was set, but this time the same RNG was for both teams, since only one could win. Using the OT Value described, if it was greater than win% (or less than for the other team) determined who got the extra goal and won.

Now this same process runs for each game of the series, for 11,000 series. The reason I did it like this is stat averages will show some things, but this plays out the series in a larger volume to see other things for an entire series, just looking at season numbers will not.

So here are some numbers for you from this madness.

The average series length was 5.83 games.

Goals For

Team

GF/AVG Overall

GF/AVG Home

GF/AVG Away

CHI

3.16

3.38

2.88

VAN

3.09

3.49

2.76

L_193f55d204434c72814a09aaa0a9b0a3_medium

 

Games Series won in.

Team

Win in 4

Win in 5

Win in 6

Win in 7

CHI

.067

.152

.131

.198

VAN

.057

.097

.170

.129

L_8b31d5af13034aaf84e12133fd942f9b_medium

 


Home, Road and Overall Game win %

Team

Home win %

Road Win %

OA Win %

CHI

.598

.418

.517

VAN

.582

.402

.483


L_559ed674206a44f6bbf1683f1c65c78b_medium

 

 

11489 OT games played, 1.044 per series. CHI wins 0.539 to VAN 0.461 of OT.

OT in series

Amount

Percentage

0

3460

0.315

1

4504

0.409

2

2261

0.206

3

650

0.059

4

112

0.010

5

13

0.001

6

0

0.000

7

0

0.000

L_b33ac387eae34162848ccbed673f3f04_medium

 

Home and Road Games Won to Series Win % (For the Blackhawks)

Games Won

Win Series %

Games won

Win Series %

0 Home

0.000

0 Road

0.104

1 Home

0.113

1 Road

0.569

2 Home

0.620

2 Road

0.857

3 Home

0.887

3 Road

0.937

4 Home

1.000

 

 

L_157401c6eb6747fab12672e7dbd7b64c_medium

 

Shutouts

CHI shutout VAN 3962 (0.061)

VAN shutout CHI 2315 (0.036)

 

Number of Games scoring Number of Goals

L_2960e6b12b00482aac818c7f31c35569_medium

 

Number times a 4, 5, 6, and 7 game series occurred

L_4419ac3c8dc8463bb6bb5c0606ec5c09_medium


Final Goal count after 64,133 games

Team

Home

Road

Overall

CHI

119,142

83,274

202,416

VAN

100,746

93,328

198,074

 

Overall I did this, because the Hawks had a few days off, and just could not be dragged away from hockey. The results do show a few truths we already know. Winning at home is huge for both teams. If either team fails to control home ice it is to its demise. The way the regular season numbers worked out on paper, the road team has a higher percentage chance of winning OT at CHI or VAN. VAN edge in OT over the Hawks in Chicago is much smaller 0.550 to 0.450 where the Hawks hold a 0.659 to 0.341 advantage in VAN.

By the numbers, this is how the series will go:

Do not expect to see Annti-Goal Niemi to show up, but Luongo may cry (0.237 chance of SO)

4-2, 4-3, 5-1 games will be the norm.

The Hawks will win 2 of the first 3 at the UC, and 1 of the first 2 in Vancouver.

Expect to see one more OT thriller, in in VAN Hawks prevail, if at the UC VAN wins.

The series will last 6 games, which the Hawks win 4-2.

If the Hawks win game one, the odds of them winning the series increase to 0.736

If the Hawks lose game one, the odds of the Hawks winning the series drop to 0.403

There are more numbers that can be pulled out from the tables I have, and may add to this later. But in conclusion, according to the method I used in determining the outcome of a series, and running it 11,000, The Hawks won 54.8% of the time. Not too shabby, but it is just a number, and games aren’t won on paper, they are won and lost on the ice, just ask the Washington Capitals!

If you have any other stats or Graphics that can be derived from just score results in Best of Seven series that you would like to see, leave a comment.

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