FanPost

Tempting the Hockey Gods with Numbers in the SCF


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Here we are at the Stanley Cup Finals! Wow this is going to be a fun Series!

I have done this for the past two rounds vs. the Vancouver Canucks and the San Jose Sharks, so in keeping with good luck here they are again with the Philadelphia Flyers. The Final result……………….the Hawks win 61.7% of the time, the breakdown to follow.

 

I’m not going to go too much into how I went about getting these numbers, but if you are interested you can read how in the Post vs VAN and vs SJS to get the basic idea. For the SCF I did include up through the Conference Finals Stats in addition to regular season stats to do these projections. Once again I did run this series 11,000 times same as the previous two.

 

So first a run down of how the predictions of the San Jose Series.

  • Antti-Goal Niemi has a decent chance of showing up at least once. (0.846), but Nabby will have a hard time matching Niemi's Finnish of a shutout (0.136) = Miss, but damn he played for it didn’t he!
  • Score like 3-2, 4-1, 3-1 will be common. (~4 goals game Average) = Hit, only Game 2 really was outside this (Game 4 had the ENG)
  • We may see one overtime game (0.881 per series) = Hit, but it came close to 2 more.
  • The Hawks should win 2 or 3 of their Home games (0.637 win % at the UC) = Hit, did not have the Chance to see if 2 of 3 though, darn!!!!
  • The Series will last 6 games again (5.83 AVG)with the Hawks winning 1-2 in San Jose finishing the Sharks off. = Really big miss, but I think we can deal with that! Word is Mighty Joe did show up for Game 5, but had to be told it really was over!
  • GFA for SJS was 1.99 = Hit actual was 1.75
  • GFA for CHI was 2.16 = Miss actual was 3.25

 

Onto the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals

 

  • The Average series will be 6 Games (5.792). This series is more likely to be 5 games compared to the VAN and SJS series.


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  • GFA

 

GFA

GFA/H

GFA/A

CHI

2.16

1.87

2.50

PHI

1.91

1.71

2.08


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  • Home, Road, Overall Win %

 

 

 

Home Win %

Road Win %

OA Win %

CHI

0.467

0.670

0.559

PHI

0.330

0.533

0.441

 


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  • There will be 1 Shutout (1.200 per series) with PHI being most likely 10478:2727. The most common GF/G for CHI is 2 with 3 being next most common, and for PHI is 0, followed by 3.

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  • Hawks Chances of winning the series for games won Home and Road

    0 Wins 1 Win 2 Wins  3 Wins 4 Wins
    Home 0.000 0.432 0.880 0.968 1.000
    Road 0.024 0.339 0.770 0.854            N/A


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  • There will be 1 OT game with an average of 1.000 per series (11,000 overall)

 

 


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  • Chicago wins final Goal Count 137500 to 121608

 

Home

Road

Overall

CHI

65383

72117

137500

PHI

49217

72391

121608

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So here is how the series will go by this run down

 

 

  • Annti-Goal Niemi should make at least an appearance (0.952), but do not expect Leighton to follow suit (0.247)
  • The Average score will be 3-1, 3-2, 4-1. (GG/A 4.07)
  • Once again we will see another OT game, if at the UC it is a 50-50 split (0.500) on who will win, but if in PHI, the Hawks should prevail (0.582)
  • The Hawks WILL drop 1 of the first 2 at the UC, but have a decent chance of taking both of the next 2 in PHI!
  • The Series will go to 6 which the Hawks will win, but if it goes to 7, the 35 pound Grail will be awarded in the UC, but be on the flight back to the land of Brotherly Love.

What I find really interesting is the fact neither team projects to play well on Home Ice, though the Hawks better than the Flyers (0.467 : 0.330). This is due to the Hawks being much stronger on the road 30-15-4 combined, while 34-11-4 at home, compared to Philly on the road at  22-22-3 and 31-15-3 at home. Both teams have strong home records, but Chicago's much better road record more neutralizes Phillies home ice.

 

The reason the Flyers get shutout so much compared to the Hawks is, the Flyers have only 10 team shutouts in the Regular and Post season, compared to the Hawks having shut out opponents 13, and the Flyers themselves were have been shutout 7 times to the Hawks only being shutout 2 times in both the Regular and Post  Seasons. So it is a 13:2 ratio for the Hawks and 10:7 for the Flyers. This is what leads to such a large difference between the two of 3.842:1 in favor of the Hawks.

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