Stanley Cup Finals goal chart
by gmh on Jun 10, 2010 9:34 PM CDT
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PrintThrowing this up real quick, before I start delving into other projects in the offseason. This isn't as fancy or detailed as the other ones I did, mostly because of the volume of goals (check out that awesome orange blob of about six goals at the top stick-side corner of Niemi's crease!), and because ESPN did some awesome work for me.
From that ESPN article:
Here's a look at how the Hawks scored in the 2010 Stanley Cup finals against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Total Pct
Stick Side 14 50.0<<
Glove Side 7 30.8
5-Hole 3 11.5
Empty Net 1 7.7
>>50.0 pct for entire Stanley Cup Playoffs (39 of 78 goals)Maybe the only thing we can take from the distribution of the goals is how unpredictable the series was -- at least from an offensive POV. Defensively, it was nice that we didn't give up any goals from the top of the circles (although a couple of point shots did get tipped in, most significantly Giroux's OT winner in Game 3), but Niemi was guilty of poor rebound control at times, same as in the Vancouver series. The cluster of Philly goals scored from Niemi's right side could speak to some systematic defensive breakdowns throughout the series, as well. How often did we see a Flyer getting open on that side of the ice? (Cough, Giroux's goal in Game 4.)
But what the flipping heck can we make of the goals-for distribution!? It looks like a game of Minesweeper out there. And what about any possible correlation between where the puck is shot from and where it goes in on a netminder? Looking at the scattershot nature of the Hawks' goalscoring in this series (15 different players scored, including 4 of 6 defensemen), it seems almost a matter of chance rather than conscious design.
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Throw the puck at the net...
and good things happen.
"Lord Stanley's new address is Sweet Home Chicago!"
The Champs
I’d like to think it means the Hawks can beat you fifteen ways from Sunday.
Bolland’s goal in game 5 is easy to spot.
Just a suggestion
Nice work. I trust you flipped the plotting that shows up on the gamecenter charts.
I think the cup winning goal should have an asterisk or special notation next to it…maybe its own color…
I actually tried to work with the GameCenter chart data before
It was then that gmh came to the realization (if not before) that it can be wildly inaccurate — AND IT’S FREAKIN FLIPPED. I saw a post on Copper & Blue (I think) today saying the same, so it’s not just us going crazy.
"maybe its own color..."
how’s this:
by VerStig on Jun 10, 2010 11:40 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
i thought it was pretty easy to spot
i mean really, how many goals to you see at that whacked-out angle from the bottom of the circle? oh, Leighton….
by puppetmasterp on Jun 12, 2010 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions
The problem is...
Here’s what I would take away from this (and you’re going to say ..duh…)
Obviously the closer you get towards the net the more likely you are to score, most of the goals are clustered extremely close to the net in fact if draw a line at the circles, you’ll find most goals are scored inside the faceoff circles in the offensive zone. Some of these may be on redirects on shots from the point but if you want to score you have to get the pucks inside the circles.
Secondly, working the stick hand of the goalie improves the chances that a shot will find the back of the net… goalie can’t catch it, gives up a rebound and what happens with big rebounds? correct they end up in the back of the net.
What I would like to see is something that MLB does, and that’s track the speed and movement of shots to judge their quality. Also, it’d be nice to get the angle from which they were shot. I’m guessing that you’ll find dmen need to shoot it low and hard from the point and forwards need to elevate rebound attempts.
angle
The GameCenter data isn’t perfect but I’d like to think that over the course of a season (or maybe an entire postseason) the errors will sort of average out. At least well enough to do some general analysis.
Since the data include x and y coordinates, I’ll just need to bug my little brother for his math books, figure out some trig, and, well, I’ll see what I can come up with this offseason. Of course, gmh is probably just as fast doing this by hand, so she could probably do a better job of it, if she wants.
I love that chart
It reaffirms what I noticed throughout this series— those damn Flyers kept scoring from the same goddamn areas. You’d THINK the Hawks would learn to protect that side of the net, haha.
As for the Hawks, I thought it was more because maybe the Flyers’ goaltending was more to blame than their defense? IDK. I may not be explaining myself well, but I’m really done with coherent thought for this week, hah.
But when it was suggested to him that Toews v. Kane seems likely to become a sidebar to every future international hockey tournament, he smiled and said: "I'd like us to win something together, too."
(Tweets @ChiBlackhawks and blogs at Blackhawks Down Low.)
no that makes sense
their goaltending was much more their achilles heel, whereas our defensive break downs had to do with Hammer having 2 bad games, or cases where the stick-side defender cheated over to glove side to lay down a hit (this happened to Seabs a couple times) leaving an open shot.
by puppetmasterp on Jun 12, 2010 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't necessarily see the varied distribution of the Hawks gaols as being an indicator of randomness
or the cluster of goals against (mostly on their PP) as being a sign of some great shortcoming.
Both appear to be, to some degree, matters of design in offensive game plan.
Goals against? When killing a penalty, one is somewhat at the mercy of reaction to the PP set up and focus. Philly had a good PP and it was designed to end up with a shot from down close. You have to accept that NHL teams will sometimes manage to execute their PP plan correctly – given enough chances. And overall goals aainst? There is a very good reason that the slot area is deemed the most dangerous area for defensive purposes – good teams score most of their goals from there. Philly is a good team. Res ispa loquitor.
The goals scored? The book on both Leithgton and Boucher (particularly with 2 strained MCLs) was to try to force a lot of side to side movement and catch them mid-shuffle. That distribution fits with that sort of game plan (and the understanding that our right side D and right wings are the stronger shooters for the most part).
Confusion will be my epitaph.
Perhaps a better indicator of game plan
would be to look at shots? As bad as it is, I can try to do a series compilation from the GameCenter data, if there’s any interest. I feel like goals reflect more a combination of game plan, player tendencies (right/left shot), defensive coverages (who got assigned to each wing), and goalie strengths and weaknesses (though I thought Niemi’s weakness was “supposed” to be glove side— ha).
If there's any interest?
Count me interested. All I can say is that if you feel like doing shot or series analysis, DO IT. We will all be happy for more hockey stuff in the off-season.
by spokeinthebandwagon on Jun 11, 2010 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions
i love these charts, shot-charts make me happy
i’ve said this many times before in fact. so yes, there’s interest
by puppetmasterp on Jun 12, 2010 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Flyers had a lot more traffic in front of the net
so I would say that is what the Hawks need to improve on next season, moving guys away from the crease and giving the G some space. Nothing went by from further than the circles and only 2 from outside the face off width
I think this is a result of the Flyers' forecheck
Both Vancouver and San Jose said they’d try to get in Niemi’s grill, but they never did a particularly good job of it.
Philly, on the other hand, was quite adept at working the puck deep to the boards behind Niemi, and when we had too many guys collapse on the puck carrier or his passing lanes, it opened up, at times, the point shots and the slot. It seemed to me like we always had our D on the sides of the goal, trying to protect against that outlet pass, so it was real easy for them to get a body parked int front of the net.
The shot chart is interesting
As you mention with The Flyer overtime goal, there are tip ins. Ladd’s goal in the final game is another example of this.
The shot on the chart will be from in close, but it was not actually a shot. The shot actually comes from around the “Chi Goals” wording and would have missed the net.
So what is my point? Statistics, in this case, don’t show the plays that happen before the goal. Is there one that does?
These guys, all of them, are the best in the world at what they do.
I would say that most of the shots from in front are from scrambles (greasy in Toews words), or quick passes.
A few are weak attempts. Richards and Kane (yes the game winner was weak but possibly the greatest goal I have ever seen).
Just because the player has the puck in close does not mean he will score (Carter – Niemi had time to challenge and therefore give Carter less net to see).
The play that happens before the shot is what actually makes the goal. Sharps and Buff goals in the final are perfect examples. While Sharp’s was a definite snipe, the quick movement of the puck by the others is why he is able to see so much net. The Goalie cannot challenge him and has to respect the shot from Bolland so more of the net is “open”. Buff’s goals is the best passing I have seen by The Hawks all season, and while Buff showed his hands on the redirect, it was the puck movement that allowed Buff to see so much net.
I am not discounting the use of statistics. GAA is a great indicator of team play, as is GFA. If you have a high GFA and low GAA chances are you are winning.
Hockey is a great team game. Some (me) say the ultimate team game.
"Grumpy Fuck"
Another perfect example of after you edit a comment preview it
A few erroneous sentences there. Sorry.
"Grumpy Fuck"
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