Niemi's agent plays checkers while Hawks play chess?

by TeamJerkStore on Aug 5, 2010 1:41 PM CDT

ON the ice, I've talked myself into Turco being no worse than a push, a lateral move. And he's POSSIBLY even an upgrade because of the improvement he gets with the Chicago defense in front of him (his career save pct is right in line with this idea), as well as his ability to create odd man rushes and breakaways.

The thing that intrigues me most is the business aspect, and just how badly Niemi and his agent seem to have messed this up, and far overplayed their hand. They HAD to have seen this scenario playing out from the moment they filed for arbitration. Maybe Niemi truly wanted to stay with Chicago, but his camp seems to have taken every action to ensure it would not happen.

It is a given that Chicago is severely constrained by the cap, and absolutely could NOT pay Niemi more than, say, somewhere around $2 mil per. Also we all knew full well that Marty Turco was waiting in the wings at around that same price, or far less as it turns out.

Seemingly disregarding this, Niemi's camp naively went forward in filing for arbitration, and somehow requested $4 mil. They knew that the benchmark comparison is the $2.75 mil that Halak just got from StL, and had to know that amount would almost certainly mean Chicago has to let him walk. Of course, $2.75mil is exactly what Niemi was awarded.

So in this situation, not only MUST the Hawks let Niemi go (the only alternative is to further dismantle the core and move other more valuable players like Sharpie, Bolland, or Campbell), but as far as I can tell, there is a VERY limited market for Niemi. Most teams are either set at goal or have other significantly cheaper options (Jose Theodore being one). Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like Niemi will be hard pressed to find that same $2.75 mil from another team.

If what Stan Bowman says is true, and Niemi was offered, and turned down, a longer term deal before the arbitration deadline (something around 4-years, $8 mil) then this is entirely Niemi's camp's fault for being so shortsighted. Again, with the hard cap, it seems unlikely that other teams are prepared to offer him even that much.

Who knows though, maybe Niemi's camp had discussions with other teams this entire time, and they know that some team (San Jose?) will throw a bigger offer his way. But regardless of if he truly wanted to stay in Chicago, wasn't the best business decistion option just taking a 3 or 4 year deal at around $2 mil per year? Or else taking a 1-year deal for $2 mil and becoming an unrestricted free agent NEXT summer?

So it looks like we can expect Niemi's numbers to take a step back next season, commensurate with the downgrade of his new team's defense. And I'm especially curious to see what kind of deal he gets from another team now.

Who knows, perhaps my assumptions are completely inaccurate, and Team X is ready to throw $12 mil and 4 years at himl... we shall see.

Thus, if Niemi truly wanted to stay AND receive a reasonable raise, they should have either

Proposed/accepted a 2 to 4 year deal, at around $2 mil per season, or
Proposed/accepted a 1 year deal, at around $2 mil per season, or
Came in with a lower arbitration number, somewhere around $2.8 or $3 mil, in order to give themselves a real chance of fitting into the 'Hawks cap situation.

As it were, that $4 mil abritration number may have simply been posturing, in order to justify a higher asking price for Niemi for when he hit the open market, and the unrestricted free agency they knew was coming...

Tweet Comment 9 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Seems like a fair summation to me.

If Zito really expected a big-money lifetime deal out of half a season and one solid playoff run, he must think there’s a few suckers in the NHL GM ranks. As you say, if the mega deal wasn’t out there, Niemi had a choice between taking a one-year “prove it and cash in” contract, or a “lifetime security but risk that you’ll be underpaid for years” long-term offer. In any case, it’s been well established that the Hawks could take a $2m cap hit at most without trading someone else.

The part in all this which I find interesting is that apparently Turco (or his agent) was in contact with Bowman since the start of free agency. And Turco also turned down a 3-year/$6m deal with the Flyers – a team that at least has to be given ‘cup contender’ status.

Makes me wonder (at least a little bit) whether this whole negotiation with Niemi was some long kabuki dance by Bowman – for the benefit of the more casual fans that were saying “OMG, we’re losing half the team!!!!”. We the fans only had rumors that Turco was willing to come here on the cheap, but if Bowman knew he could bring in Turco all along?

Makes it a lot easier to tell Zito we’ll do any deal you like at a $2m cap hit – or you can take your client to a free market where most all of the dollars have already been spent. I think one fair measure of Zito’s gamble is does Niemi beat $2m per on whatever deal he eventually signs. And even then, if he goes to a lesser defense Nemo will really be under the gun to show the league he wasn’t a one-hit wonder.

by The Deputy Mayor of Rush Street on Aug 5, 2010 3:23 PM CDT reply actions

Good points

I think when Zito & Niemi filed for arbitration they figured they could get more $$$ than the Hawks were offering, so maybe that’s why they didn’t take those seemingly good offers, if the alleged numbers are accurate, since Doug Wilson jumped at signing Hjalmarsson after, but I don’t understand what their thinking was not making a deal before the hearing once the cap squeeze became tighter. Niemi has potential to improve considering that was his first year facing NHL competition, but his own success as a low-paid goaltender hurt the market for netminders this summer, and he wont be playing behind Keith, Seabrook & Hammer anywhere else. Other contending teams like San Jose, Philly and Montreal have said they aren’t interested, so it looks like his choices are few and one wonders what Zito’s plan B was.

Best of luck to Niemi, but in terms of what was best for the organization and our future, Bowman made the right choice and was definitely moving 2 steps ahead, even if he didn’t predict the Hammer offer sheet. I agree Turco is a lateral or maybe better move given our defense as opposed to the Stars, but even if Turco were to be slightly worse than Niemi, that $1.3 million contract is huge. Even if Niemi could have been signed for $2 million, that $700K difference opens lots of possibilities in filling the rest of our roster (as shown in the Capgeek post on the main page). Add to that Turco’s attitude and desire to play for the Hawks for the sole purpose of winning and you can’t ask for any more from the hand Bowman was dealt.

by Wolverine16 on Aug 6, 2010 12:08 AM CDT reply actions

Halak is making 3.75

but other than that, legit points. With Madden and Sopel gone, the team is missing a little veteran leadership. I suppose putting Turco between the pipes helps with that. He’s only going to be facing around 24-27 shots a game. If he saves 90 percent of them, it’s a win. Niemi isn’t worth giving up another guy; he can go have fun testing the FA market.

"Mes que un club"
"You're a pro or you're a noob. That's life"

by Scratch and Snif on Aug 6, 2010 12:27 AM CDT reply actions

Halak will make 2.75 this year

3.75 is his cap hit

Link

by JacktheRipper on Aug 6, 2010 12:51 AM CDT up reply actions

I was referring to the cap hit

If you’re looking for a benchmark, you check the cap hit. Nobody would look at Hossa’s contract and say: “Look, a star player making 1 mil a year!”. They would look at the cap hit and say that he’s making around 5 and a half mil, or 7 mil a year if you don’t count the latter years.

"Mes que un club"
"You're a pro or you're a noob. That's life"

by Scratch and Snif on Aug 6, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions

but in this case,

that’s pretty much what the arbitrator did – look at Halak’s next year of pay ($2.75m) and that’s exactly what Niemi got on his 1 year deal. Halak’s cap hit is not comparable to a one year contract in this situation.

by Katherine215 on Aug 6, 2010 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions

In that situation you’re right, but to me, Halak’s value and Niemi’s value aren’t even close. Halak was good during the regular season and great in the playoffs, Niemi had his moments in both, but was otherwise above average.

"Mes que un club"
"You're a pro or you're a noob. That's life"

by Scratch and Snif on Aug 6, 2010 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions

It's obvious Niemi and his agent got outplayed

The only justification for their actions is Niemi accepting the idea that he could get more money in Europe, if the NHL passes. But having their asses handed to them by Bowman hurts the market value of both Niemi and Zito. For his sake, I hope Nemo doesn’t fade away after this fiasco. In this present market, a goalie is playing with fire with these kinds of tactics. With bad luck, he can be out of the game in the near future.

by maxachium27 on Aug 7, 2010 11:37 AM CDT reply actions

Any Truth

There were several blogs saying Niemi was offered 2.6/Year at the beginning of the off season but Zito said no way too low.

Also, there was never any way Campbell was going anywhere. The only way to unload him would be to buy him out. Sharp probably would have been the victim if they had to shed more space.

by pnote on Aug 12, 2010 1:04 PM CDT reply actions