Hey there stat nerds.  First off I am by no means a stat guy.  However, I had this notion that main problem with our Hawks this year are one goal games, specifically how the PK influenced the outcome of the one goal game and more importantly standing points. 

Remember I am no statistician. 

I apologize for the hugeness of my tables.  Making them a jpg made them real blurry

Below is the table showing the one goal games to date and all the pertinent info like who the Hawks played and where.  Also included is columns showing allow PPG and score PPG.  These columns are the focus of this analysis.

Here is the data

Here is that data sorted for one goal wins only.

Same data sorted for losses (regardless of the fact that a point was earned)

What does all this mean?

1. 27 of 60 games have ended in a one goal win or loss or 45% of all games (Almost 1/2 the season)

2. 11 of the 27 one goal games resulted in 2 points for Hawks and 0 for opponent or 41%

3. 16 of the 27 one goal games resulted in 2 points for the opponent or 59%

4. 6 of the 27 one goal games resulted in 1 point for Hawks or 22%

Now lets look at how special teams influenced these games.

1. In the one goal game wins Hawks opponents scored PPG in 5 of the 11 games or 45%

2. In the one goal losses Hawks opponents scored PPG in 11 of 16 games or 68% and in the regulation losses (10 games), Hawks have allowed PPG in 7 of those games or 70%.  So, the perentage of opponent PPG during a one goal win is 23% - 25% lower than in the one goal loss

Something interesting of note is the Score PPG column.  It is my assumption that when the Hawks score a PPG the outcome of the game should be in the Hawks favor, but was this the case?  It does not apper to be so in the one goal games this season based on this data. 

1. PPG in 6 of 11 one goal wins or 54%

2. PPG in 8 of 16 one goal losses or 50%

3. PPG in 4 of 10 regulation losses or 40%

4. PPG in 4 of 6 OT/SO losses or 66%

What irks me the most is that if the hawks had scored just 5 more goals during these one goal games, they would have at least 5 more standings points, likewise if they had allowed 5 less goals they would have at least 5 more standings points.

You stat people run the numbers.