1st and 2nd Forward Lines 2011 vs 2010 Production
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 6, 2011 2:57 PM CST
Email
PrintEd note: The work CNS did here merited some serious recognition on the front page, so it's with pride that I bump this up to the forefront on this the most superest of Sundays. It beats looking at the Western Conference standings. --McClure
I noticed a lot of conversation lately about the production of the Hawks' top lines as compared to the bottom lines this season. So I decided to take a closer look at the forward corps. If this generates any interest I'll put together something similar for the defensivemen.
I charted the 1st and 2nd line production from this season compared to last year's based on Plus/Minus and Scoring. Last year had A LOT of line juggling. Instead of going through and figuring out who played on what line during each game of the season, it was much, much easier to use stats from the players who I remember spending the most time on each line during the regular season. I believe the results still paint a fairly accurate picture.
Second, I also wanted to look deeper into the relationship between a player's stats and the performance of his linemates and to compare each player's individual performance with his performance from last year.
The data for each player from 2011 has been adjusted to equal the number of games that player (or the player in that position, in the case of Ladd and Kopecky) played in 2010. That way it is easier to determine the difference from last year's pace for each player.
Also, the reason Ladd 2010 was used in comparison to Kopecky 2011 is not only because he played a decent chunk of time on the 2nd line, but also because if I took on average of the other players who I recall spent some time on the 2nd line, the resulting average would be almost identical to Ladd's actual season figures. Therefore I felt he was the best measuring stick, my "everyman" so to speak.
LEGEND
GP-Games Played, G-Goals, A-Assists, Pts-Points
TOI/GP - Avg Time-On-Ice per Game Played
TOI/Pt - Minutes Played per Point Scored
GP/Pt- Games Played per Goal Scored
GP/Pt 5 - Games Played per Goal at Full Strength
HIGHLIGHTED DATA
BLUE - IMPROVEMENT (double digit)
GREEN - IMPROVEMENT (single digit)
ORANGE - DECLINE (single digit
RED - DECLINE (double digit)
LINE PERFORMANCE
click on image for a larger view
OBSERVATIONS - 1st and 2nd Lines
TOTAL SCORING
You asked for your top lines to step up the scoring this year, and they have. They're on pace to score 14 more goals than last season. But I assume this increase is mostly due to the Hawks' PP being #1 in the league, and all of these players get PP time. I also assume that much of this advantage has been given away on the dismal PK. That leaves 5vs5, where most of the game is played and where the lines are intact, so I'm going to look at that in more detail.
FULL STRENGTH (5vs5)
All you need to do is notice the amount of red boxes in the 5vs5 categories to see that something has changed significantly since last year, and definitely for the worse. Prior to this season, it was apparent that the top lines would have to increase their production to have a season anywhere near as successful as last year's. Therefore any decline is substantial.
Projected Goals for the 1st and 2nd lines are down 7 from last year. Not a significant variance from a statistical standpoint, but again we were looking for an increase. From the breakdown, the 1st line is actually on pace to match last year's production. The decline in goals has come completely from the 2nd line.
Assists are down 29 from last year. That's a substantial variation from last year's figure, but not just because it's a double-digit decline. What is curious about the variance is that NHL forwards typically average about 1.40 A/G (assists per goal) 5vs5. Based on that, I would have expected the decrease in assists to be somewhere around -10 (-7G x 1.40G/A). Instead the ratio between the decline in goals and assists is 4.14 A/G (-29A/-7G). Last season's A/G ratio for the top 2 lines was right in line with the league average at 1.41 5vs5. This season it has dropped to 1.21 5vs5.
So where have those assists gone? Is it due to an increase in unassisted goals or a reduction in secondary assists? I doubt it. Therefore they must be going to the defensemen. The fact that Seabrook and Keith are #1 and #2 on the team this year in assists may support this theory. If that's the case, then it would probably be safe to assume that:
a) the offense is taking more shots this year from out near the blue line,
b) the defensivemen are pinching more often, and/or
c) the defense is making more stretch passes in an attempt to spring odd man rushes.
Whether it is one, two, or all of the above, this leads to more scoring chances and odd man rushes for the opposition via blocked shots (um, Keith), the defensivemen being caught down low, or intercepted stretch passes. Could this be part of the reason the defense has suffered this year? Are the Hawks playing a higher risk offense in order to sustain scoring? I reviewed stats back to the lockout and this is by far the lowest G/A ratio, so something has to be causing this deviation from the norm.
I initially thought I further confirmed my theory based on the general assumption that the Hawks are trying to play the same style of hockey as last season with lesser personnel. But aside from Kopecky for Ladd these are the same players from last season, so I dunno if that's truly the case.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The chart below shows the overall team's performance on special teams. This year the Hawks are on pace to net 68G on the PP (PP Net=PPG-SHGA) and 48GA on the PK (PK Net=PPGA-SHG) for special teams net of +20G. Last season the Hawks were at +48 and -26, for a net of +22. The goal differential is only -2 since last season. The PP and PK are neither helping nor hurting the Hawks this year as compared to last.
One note though. I keep hearing "Good thing the Hawks are among the least penalized teams in the league. Therefore the PK doesn't hurt us as much." Yes, they are the 3rd least penalized team in the league, but they are also 3rd from last in PP opportunities. So by that rationale the PP doesn't help as much either. The Hawks have the fewest special teams opportunities (PP + PK) in the league. Therefore 5vs5 performance plays a larger part in determining the Hawks' fate than any other team in the NHL.
PLUS/MINUS
Well let's get the good news immediately out of the way. The difference in plus/minus from last year for the top two lines is only -125. (You may now release your sarcasm detector buttons) I knew the numbers were worse, but a -125 difference was unexpected.
I'll try to lessen the blow of that number if possible. Since all three skaters get a plus or minus whenever a goal is scored, the actual Goals For-Against Differential (GFA Diff) is generally only going to be 1/3 of that number. Here's how each line compares to last season:
At first, one might assume that because the plus/minus and GFA Differential of the 2nd line is almost double that of the 1st line, that the 2nd line must be giving up twice as many GA. That's actually not true.
The 1st line is on pace to score exactly the same number of goals they did last season. Therefore they're on pace to give up 16 more GA. The 2nd line is on pace to score 7 less goals 5vs5 than last season. Therefore they're on pace to give up 19 more GA than last season (-26+7=19), which is only 3 more GA than the 1st line. So the 1st and 2nd lines are both having relatively equal defensive lapses.
ADDITIONAL INFO
Last year the Hawks finished with the 2nd best Goal Differential in the league at +62. This year, believe it or not, they are on pace to finish with the 6th best GDIFF at +34. The GDIFF of the 1st and 2nd lines has decreased by a total of 42G and special teams has decreased by 2G. 62-42-2 = 18 GDIFF. So where are the other 16 (34-18) coming from? The 3rd and 4th lines.
Last season our 3rd and 4th lines combined for a plus/minus rating of +28. This season they are on pace for a +66 combined rating. This year's minimum wage roster-fillers are not only matching the 5on5 production of last year's names like Byfuglien, Versteeg, Madden, Eager, Fraser, et al; they're more than doubling it. The 3rd and 4th lines are matching the GDIFF of the 1st and 2nd lines with an average of 5 mins less TOI/GP.
INDIVIDUAL PLAYER PERFORMANCE
click on image for a larger view
OBSERVATIONS - Individual Players
When looking at individual performance, it is important to remember that Plus/Minus and Scoring are not very good metrics for determining how much of an effect that player is having on his linemates, and in turn, how much of his performance is a product of them.
Toews
I've heard a lot of chatter that Toews isn't quite Toews this year. Maybe there's something to that, but these stats say otherwise. Nothing but consistency from Captain Serious. An equal mix of green and orange shows no extremes in any category. Toews' Assists and Plus/Minus are down, but Kane's injury and perceived lack of effort this season might have something to do with that. Only a -8 in Plus/Minus Diff from last season when your partner in crime is on pace for a -32 suggests that Toews has in fact been carrying this line.
Kane
In a season where EVERYONE'S stats are better on the PP, Kane is the lone player who has had any regression. No green or blue boxes for Kane, only red and orange. Assists are down and Plus/Minus is down substantially. His -32 Plus/Minus Diff is way out of whack from Toews' -8 and Brouwer's -9. Maybe some of this is due to his nagging ankle injuring, but his play left much to be desired prior to that. Also note that Kane's TOI/Pt is down considerably, with little influence from the PP or PK affecting this number.
Brouwer
Another good year from a guy who seems to thrive on the top line. Aside from the sole PK goal last season and the small drop in Plus/Minus, Brouwer has improved slightly in all categories. His TOI/Pt improvement of 5:19 is the best among the top lines. And he's been doing all this with 1:15 less ice time per game. Why Q?
Sharp
Biggest jump in goal production from any position on the team - but also the largest drop in Plus/Minus of any forward. How can that be? Simply put, he's been going batshit crazy on the PP, but his 5on5 play has dropped off a cliff. With all those goals, he's only on pace for 11 more points this season, even with an increase in ice time of 1:12 per game. One can't deny he's been clutch, but his -45 Plus/Minus Diff compared to Hossa's -14 and Kopecky/Ladd's -18 suggests he's definitely a guilty party.
Hossa
The PP is keeping him on pace to get near last year's offensive numbers, but his 5on5 play has definitely declined. And 20-25 goals per season is simply not going to cut it for the $7.9 Million Dollar Man.
You are Marian Hossa, and you are not scoring.
Kopecky/Ladd
I am torn here. Kopecky is such a polarizing player. We all know that Ladd is a better player than Kopecky. We all know that the 2nd line could use someone more talented than Kopecky. But these numbers comparing Kopecky's production to Ladd's suggest he's actually getting the job done - or at least filling in better than expected. It's hard to say that he's been solely the recipient of good linemates when his numbers are in line with Ladd's from last season.
Last season Sharp and Hossa were both +24 for a combined +48. Ladd was only +2. This year Sharp is -21 and Hossa is +10 for a combined -11. Kopecky is -16. Kopecky's Plus/Minus rating is much more in line with his linemates than Ladd's was (69% drop off compared to a 2,400% drop off). But who is influencing whom? Are Sharp and Hossa's numbers down because they're missing a linemate of Ladd's caliber, who is paid twice as much as Kopecky and who has intangibles that led him to be named captain of his current team? (I only mention Ladd's salary because people need to start accepting that Kopecky is playing here solely due to the salary cap) The simple answer is "Yes," but how much of Sharp and Hossa's 5on5 downturn is due to Kopecky and how much is due to themselves?
Ladd didn't play special teams, so it's not fair to directly compare results there. But I often wonder if another less clumsy-looking player played the season in Kopecky's spot and had the same numbers. Would we praise how that player sparked our PP? (I'm not implying he has, but he's done a good job in front of the net) Would we be impartial? Or would we chastise him for his performance? And what came first, the chicken or the egg? (Some of you already know my answer to that one: The rooster came first. Duh.)
I have another FanPost regarding plus/minus and goal production of the TOI leaders in Wins vs Losses and Home vs Away to post, but my laptop power cord died (no need to send flowers or a card, it was hooked up to a monitor for years. Har har) so I don't have access to the graphs until I get my replacement cord in the mail.
OT, I know many of us hate to play the "prediction game," but I've been working on a program that predicts the outcome of individual games, in hopes that I can come up with a formula that will beat the betting lines by a small percentage. The program suggests that the Hawks will finish with a record around 44-30-6 and 94 points. Don't fret though. Prior to the season most expected that 95 points would be needed to make the playoffs. Due to parity in the Western Conference, it appears 92 points will likely be the threshold.
74 comments
|
6 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
TL/DNR
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 5, 2011 1:41 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Was that your reaction to my e-mail?
Haha, no worries though. Great work here — confirms what I think I’ve observed but can’t seem to get anyone to see. Love that you weren’t lazy like me and can back it up with the numbers.
Haha
I feel awful for not emailing you back. I put it aside to write back when I had more time and it fell off the page. Sorry Stig!
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 5, 2011 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
No biggie, I have the same problem
as ahnfire and others can probably attest to… that and I can’t imagine anyone really having the patience to read my e-mails when I go into WALL OF TEXT mode.
Last season’s A/G ratio for the top 2 lines was right in line with the league average at 1.41 5vs5. This season it has dropped to 1.21 5vs5.
Verstig, do you have an insight into this? I found it be a potentially interesting discovery.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 5, 2011 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
Hmm I've never thought about A/G ratio
What you say about it going to defensemen might be it, but it’d be interesting to look at it on a goal-by-goal basis. What are the secondary assists, are they being leeched by other PP guys, etc. would all be good to know — there’s information there that might help us figure out whether it really is a change in style from last year (what I was getting at with my “movement” stat — I swear I’ll get a chance to look at it again by the end of the year).
The ratio is based on 5on5 play
so it definitely isn’t getting leeched by PP guys, but maybe looking at the defensivemen stats might bring us closer to a conclusion. My concern though is that d-men A/G ratios are all over the board depending on a number of factors like what line they skate on and whether they are a puck mover/scorer or a stay-at-home d-man.
The Hawks defensivemen this season have an overall A/G ratio of 5.80 (87A/15G). Last year their rating was 3.27 (170/52). It’s a very large variance, but I’m not sure what it means. One might argue that the ratio was lower last year because the d-men were jumping into the play more often, which would negate 1 of the 3 suggestions I made in my post.
If A/G ratio for d-men is perhaps partially based on the style of play of a team (I haven’t looked into that yet, just an assumption), then I would not expect this kind of variation from the same team comparing consecutive years, unless…?
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 5, 2011 3:20 PM CST up reply actions
I read everything!
But I may have missed something. Why exactly are you comparing Kopecky to Ladd? Wasn’t Ladd playing on the 3rd line with Bolland and Versteeg?
If you really think about it, this comment was actually hockey-related.
Towards the end of the year yes
If I remember correctly though, the line generator was pretty active last year too. A lot of guys saw time on the 2nd line.
oh, now I remember
I think Versteeg was also on the 1st line for a bit early on before Q finally settled on the 3rd line.
If you really think about it, this comment was actually hockey-related.
I will defer to
Instead of going through and figuring out who played on what line during each game of the season, it was much, much easier to use stats from the players who I remember spending the most time on each line during the regular season. I believe the results still paint a fairly accurate picture.
If someone can show that another player spend more time on the 2nd line than Ladd, or if Ladd and Player X spent about equal time in the 2nd line, then I can quickly alter the stats to include that other player or even a combination of Ladd and Player X.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 5, 2011 2:18 PM CST up reply actions
meh, too lazy
your assumptions/memories are probably on target
If you really think about it, this comment was actually hockey-related.
Good stuff
Largely confirms the conventional wisdom.
Kane and Hossa have underperformed.
The 2nd line is getting its teeth kicked in 5 on 5.
Tighten up the PK.
we are the people our parents warned us about
tl;dr ;)
where are the photoshops/cliff notes? D: there’s no photoshops in this fanpost- THIS FANPOST IS FULL OF LIES – CNS MUST BE USING A GHOSTWRITER!
so cliffnotes would be…pick it up, Kaner. you too Hossa. and for crying out loud Sharp, play hockey when it’s 5v5?
Interesting
You need an executive summary though.
39 years of pain (1971 loss to Habs) vaporized by one OT goal.
I'd take a one sentence dumbing-down.
Give it to me Fox News style. I need to know what I believe!
Call in the next deaf end ant!
Fox News style
We’re not winning because of the terrorists!
If you really think about it, this comment was actually hockey-related.
Hmmm....no Obama as an antagonist...no Evil Democrats
needs a little work…
Call in the next deaf end ant!
lemme try again...
Big Government Management has spent too much money on failing policies players, and the liberal elite coaching staff is allowing terrorists bad play continue to attack plague us instead of keeping us safe focused and consistent.
If you really think about it, this comment was actually hockey-related.
and one more thing
Obama Bowman is too young, too inexperienced for the job and too soft on enemies bad veterans. Palin Pierre McGuire would do a better job.
If you really think about it, this comment was actually hockey-related.
by LanceFister3 on Feb 6, 2011 5:16 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
This is fantastic, CNS
I love being able to pocket away the underperformances. Game to game it’s never so easy to identify the trends, but over the course of 50+ games thigns do become apparent. I’m not much of a believer in individual +/- as being too revealing a stat, but looking at the top lines’ differntial from this over last season … Jesus. It bears notice … and it also confirms the eye-test of own-zone floundering that seem to be more the norm this year.
There’s more to comment on … but I’m going to let it rest and then read again. Great post.
www.mjt.org
They just better pick it up...
Currently they are 11th in the West and not even in the playoff picture. The game against Vancouver showed a lot of promise despite the loss. Hopefully they can pick up a lot of positives from it and just turn it around and start lighting up those lamps!
Wow
I love it when my head explodes from looking at number because they make sense!
Seriously, this is great, and checks with chart for the eye test!
Frying Brain cells and killing retina receptors writing about our founding history.
Second City Hockey, Seriously dude, we do talk about hockey sometimes, no really!
by Toews-makes-funny-faces on Feb 6, 2011 4:09 PM CST reply actions
Points
1) When Hossa came back from injury he was paired with Bolland on the second line. It wasn’t until Legwand was crushing the Hawks in the Playoffs that Bolland was moved to the third line. So Bolland should really be there before Ladd.
2) Last year the Hawks had the luxury of playing Sharp on LW. That let him sometime play with Toews and Kane. So some of Toews’ negative numbers this year can almost directly be contributed to the difference between having a player like Sharp as a sometime LW and having a player like Stalberg as your sometime LW. And Kane’s assist numbers are also directly related to the difference in linemates.
3) This season was predicated on Sharp being able to play center on the Hawks second line. Last year Sharp played center with either Hossa or players like Versteeg. They could at least win time of possession to keep positive +/- ratings. This year when Hossa has been injured there hasn’t been anyone on the bottom lines to step up. Neither Sharp nor Kopecky can hold down that second line without Hossa and their negative +/- numbers show that.
4) And Sharp REALLY can’t play center with Kane on RW. They don’t have enough defense. Both Kane and Sharp have dug themselves around a ‘-8’ hole on their +/- playing together on that second line.
5) Could you please explain how you determined goal differential per line? No way are the Hawks defensive lines doing better this year from last. The big difference between +/- this year and last year has been on the Hawks top d-pair. I don’t see how your data correlates to the defensemen data.
agree w/ point 1-4
haven’t read closely enough to guess on #5 yet. Great work though CNS.
My hockey-related comment: Thowing an octopus on the ice is the dumbest meme in professional sports. I'd rather throw waffles.
by puppetmasterp on Feb 6, 2011 10:27 PM CST up reply actions
I think you completely ignored my disclaimer
In all honesty, I went through numerous TOI and shift charts from last season – and ended up more confused than before I looked. There was a reason we had the Q Random Line Generator.
1. Bolland played less than half of the season and he spent some time on both the 2nd and 3rd lines, although I think you’re correct that most of it was on the 2nd. But Sharp played the full season and centered roughly half of those games on the 2nds line. Since I’m trying to compare positions more than just players, IMO Sharp gets the nod over Bolland for last season’s 2nd line center.
And Ladd gets the nod over Bolland because he also played a full season and spent much of it on the 2nd line. If you take an average of all the remaining players who played on the 2nd line – their averaged combined stats come out almost identical to Ladd’s season stats. Ladd is my “everyman.”
2. I’m not sure that +/- is a good metric to use to compare quality of linemates and it’s very difficult to determine who influences whom. There is probably truth in your statement, but even if I switch Sharp from 2nd line center to 1st line left wing the combined +/- differential of the top 2 forward lines is still -125 between last year and this year.
3. I agree completely. It’s the price they pay for losing depth.
4. Agree again. That’s partly why Q hasn’t been doing much juggling this year. He can’t.
5. I’m not sure where you’re reading that I imply the defense is better this year. I haven’t charted the d-lines. What I did state is that the defense is averaging more assists per goal than last year and the forwards are the opposite. I think there’s information hidden in that stat.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 6, 2011 11:23 PM CST up reply actions
reply to points
1) OK, I understand why you used Ladd. It’s just that I don’t remember ever seeing Ladd/Sharp/Hossa as a line. At least NOT on a consistent basis. Also, when you use Hossa on that line your year is 57 games and Bolland was available for 2/3rds of those. And he was by far Hossa’s most often linemate.
2) For Kane it is about assists. He needs a finisher that he doesn’t have this year compared to last. So he is giving you what he gave last year. Toews is the one that is doing a little better.
4) Not being able to line juggle as much or matchup as much this year is probably the biggest key to where the +/- drop falls. I have more on this but I need to do the math first.
5) Sorry, I should have explained that more. I looked at the +/- differential of Keith and Campbell earlier this year. I looked at zone starts, quality of competition and quality of teammates and actual line combination’s. What I found is that it is almost like the two players are on different teams. Campbell got put into offensive situations with pretty much last year’s team. Keith and Seabrook pretty much took the defensive responsibilities and played much more with the new guys. So I find it hard to believe that the new guys are doing better then last years players when Keith’s +/- has dropped so much…
Regarding #1. It’s admittedly the biggest flaw in the data and I expected to be called out on it. But to do it any other way would’ve made an already long post twice as long and the work put in too much. Even if the names were changed though, the results would be similar. Ultimately, if I continue with the 3rd and 4th lines and the d-men, everyone will get used and the overall trends will bear out.
Can I use BtN to find out who the d-line have been skating with based on TOI or would I be stuck using shift charts? For the most part it seems that Keith/Seabs are always on the ice with the 3rd line and that Campbell/Hammer have the 2nd line. 2/7 also get a majority of the time with the 1st line, but 51/4 get some time with them too. Would you agree?
Keith is only a -2 this season and Seabs is -5, so I don’t don’t find it too hard to believe that a good chunk is their drop in Plus/Minus is coming from the 125 pt drop of the top lines. Especially when you consider that the 3rd and 4th lines last year didn’t have as incredible of a 5on5 GF/GA ratio as we warmly remember.
I do plan on putting together future posts focusing on zone starts, quality of competition and quality of teammates. I wanted to start off with something more familiar that would point out trends and then look further into the Qual ratings to look deeper. You’re one of the resident experts on that, so if you put something together please post it.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 7, 2011 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
You can use timeonice.com
but you’d have to add up the head-to-head TOI… I think I have a chart of that for even strength last season, let me know if you think my program would be helpful
by VerStig on Feb 7, 2011 11:52 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Ooo, yes please
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 7, 2011 2:21 PM CST up reply actions
BTN
What Verstig said on timeonice. BTN doesn’t break it down by shifts. And quality of teammates can be a little misleading since Buf was NOT a quality teammate last year and Kane and Sharp aren’t quality teammates this year.
As for forward to defensive pairings it really has been more about the opponents. When Q is matching Bolland with the other teams top lines, that is almost always 72. When Q is matching ones with ones, Campbell can get a little time with the third line. Since he hasn’t been doing that much lately it’s almost always Keith and Bolland.
As for the rest, if it isn’t the other teams top line or his teams 4th line, Q tries to put Campbell out there in offensive zone draws as often as he can get away with it.
So to recap in management speak
1. Fix the third D pairing
2. Get a second line center
3. Keith, Hossa and Kane – pick up your games
Since the likelihood of the first and second happening are basically zero, and the third probabilistic at best, they had best find a way to win 19 of the last 30 with the crew they have and finish with 96 points to make sure they are in. I think 92 will be too low this year. I also think hitting 90 will be tough. Too much time has gone by and they are unable to get any momentum together.
Next year gives them another $6-7MM to fix things.
by Return of the Roar on Feb 6, 2011 10:38 PM CST reply actions
I don't need all this mumbo jumbo to tell you ...
that the hawks’ problem is that they have two thrid lines, which both suck, and no fourth line. Dowell, Stalberg, Skille, Bickel? Peeeuuuu. Add in that Bolland’s slow start, Boyton’s mustache, and the new assistant coach’s “hey, what’s going on over here, guys?” look to him and you got yourself a team that misses the playoffs.
by Billy Charlesbois on Feb 6, 2011 10:58 PM CST reply actions
One stat tells the whole story
Goals against.
209 last year in regular season. On pace for 232 this year. How many one goal games have they lost this year? That’s at least good for six games or so – 12 points.
Defense.
by Return of the Roar on Feb 6, 2011 11:10 PM CST reply actions
True, but why?
As you can see from above, the 3rd and 4th forward lines are more than doubling the GF/GA ratio from last season’s 3rd and 4th lines. So no lapse there. The combined +/- of the 3rd d-line this season is on pace to be +7. Last year’s was +13. It’s only a drop off of 6 in +/-, which equals about 2 goals. That’s negligible.
The goals are being scored on the top 2 forward lines – and they mostly skate with the top 2 defensive lines. 9 out of 10 of these players played the majority of last season in those spots. So why are they suffering this year? Can half of them really be having bad years simultaneously? I find that hard to believe.
You pinpointed the problem. Step 2 is washing it out.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 6, 2011 11:45 PM CST up reply actions
Well
First line on pace to give up 16 more GA. Second line to give up 19 more GA. That is 35 more GA. Like I said earlier, your data is fairly consistent with a net 20-30 GA higher than last year. And since you only need to lose a game by one, that higher GA is likely the reason why the Hawks do not have another 12-14 points in the standings right now.
Just think back on the games they had in third period and gave up two quick ones to lose it in the end. It is defensive lapses on both sides of the game, O and D, for the most part, which seem to be fairly evenly distributed among individual players when using memories of the games as the guide.
The weakness is the aggregate inconsistent defense. No one or two or even three culprits. The TEAM defense is failing enough at critical times to cost them games.
by Return of the Roar on Feb 7, 2011 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
Puck Possession
It’s really as simple as team depth and puck possession. Last year the team was an insanely puck possession team. This year they are just an average puck possession team.
Last year the Hawks gave up 25.1 shots against per game. This year they have been averaging 28.7. So 203 goals against last year becomes 232 projected goals against this year. And that is just because of the additional ~3 shots against per game.
Last year they scored 262 goals on 34.1 shots per game. This year they are averaging 32.4 shots per game for a projected net result of 13 less goals.
So 13 + 29 is a 42 goal differential from last year to this year. It’s interesting to note that the Hawks are a slightly more efficient offensive team and a slightly more stingy defensive team so the actual projected goal differential is less.
Anyway, the Causes
With puck possession you can “hide” Kane’s defensive issues. With less quality replacements, Kane becomes more of a defensive liability.
Sharp is a strong defensive LW but is merely mortal as a defensive center.
And Hossa has been hurt this year so there is a little bit of a drop off there. Otherwise, it really hasn’t been the “core.”
Then Q is “protecting” the Hawks fourth line more so then last years. With the top lines taking on the added burden.
At the beginning of the year, Q was using the first line (Toews + Hossa) as his checking line. So although this years and last years third lines have similar +/- they haven’t always played as difficult level opponents. At least not at the beginning of the year.
So, I’m still thinking the +/- differences are NOT having Sharp available as a LW and NOT having Buff, Versteeg and Ladd available as top two line injury replacements.
I don't really see how the
increased GA and inferred lack of puck possession (though this inference is fairly well supported by increased SA) points to the lack of depth of 2011 vs 2010.
It seems to be denied by the 35 additional GA projected over last year by the top two lines – lines which have more or less stayed the same as last year. Our 3rd D-pairing is playing sufficiently well, but our top D pairing is looking like swiss cheese that lost a fight with a shotgun.
Especially with this: “This season they are on pace for a +66 combined rating” from the OP, I don’t see depth as being the causative factor in the dropoff of team defense from ’10 to ’11, unless you are specifically suggesting that it is the shielding of the 4th line which causes quality-of-play of the top two lines to drop off.
I could be incorrect, but I believe Bolland actually leads the league in qualcomp, indicating that the third line, which is stellar in terms of +/- is seeing tough customers on a regular basis.
I don’t see the depth players, or 3/4 lines, as taking the brunt of the responsibility in terms of the decreased efficiency of team defense, i see it as the top two lines. We knew going into the season that if we got adequate levels of play from the 3rd/4th lines and 3rd d-pairing, it would be all down to the ‘core’ to produce to get this team where it needs to be. To date, we’ve gotten better-than-expected output from the 3rd/4th lines and 3rd pairing, but, in one form or another, the core hasn’t been there all season long. They’re all under contract (with the one exception) for another year, which means there’s still time to right their brains before it is potentially broken up, but if they don’t do it fast (tonight vs calgary) this season might just be a write-off.
6 Hawks in the top 20 in QualComp - Toews, the 3rd line, and Marlboro 72
RK NAME QUALCOMP QUALTEAM
1 DAVEBOLLAND 0.180 0.054
3 BRENTSEABROOK 0.135 -0.166
7 DUNCANKEITH 0.126 -0.170
8 BRYANBICKELL 0.123 -0.031
10 FERNANDOPISANI 0.118 -0.015
20 JONATHANTOEWS 0.091 -0.258
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 7, 2011 7:30 PM CST up reply actions
No idea why it does that. Take 2...
RK NAME QUALCOMP QUALTEAM
1 BOLLAND 0.180 0.054
3 SEABROOK 0.135 -0.166
7 KEITH 0.126 -0.170
8 BICKELL 0.123 -0.031
10 PISANI 0.118 -0.015
20 TOEWS 0.091 -0.258
It’s impressive that the 3rd line has the highest combined QualComp of any line in the entire league. What’s all the more amazing is that they are among the Plus/Minus leaders on the team too.
Bickell +11
Bolland +7
Pisani +5
From this and what I showed above, the 3rd line actually hasn’t been getting “hidden” by Q and the 3rd and 4th lines really are outperforming the lines from last season. I think Dale may be referring to the fact that Q hid the 4th line when Scott and Hendry were skating there. The 4th line has had a good amount of ice time since then.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 7, 2011 7:58 PM CST up reply actions
+/- Quality of competition
At the start of the season Q hadn’t settled on Bickell/Bolland/Pisani as the third line. At that time the Hawks were playing Toews/Hossa as the top checking line.
In any event, Toews and Kanes Quality of competition numbers are up.
The second lines numbers are down.
The new third lines numbers are way up.
The various 4th line numbers are down and when Scott is on the ice WAY down.
The second d-pairs numbers are up and the third line d-pairs numbers are way down.
So
Last year the Hawks would try and exploit the other teams bottom lines. This year Q needs to “protect” his 4th line just to get them ice time. Which is one of the reasons the Hawks top line’s competition numbers are up. They haven’t been able to “bottom feed” as much.
To me the biggest issue on the top lines are the replacements, like when Hossa gets hurt. Kopecky’s, Sharp’s and Kane’s +/- negative numbers are all related to trying to maintain a second line without Hossa.
The issue with the drop from last year has been the goals NOT scored by players teamed up with the core. The difference between Skille/Stalberg playing left wing with the kids instead of Sharp. The difference between moving up Versteeg/Buff/Ladd to replace Hossa, instead of Pisani or Skille or Stalberg. It is important to remember that a lot of the bottom 6 goals last year were actually scored when they were playing on the top lines. This year that has NOT been the case.
The puck dominance of last year was that the Hawks didn’t miss a beat when a “core” player was hurt. Now the teams second line “bleeds” whenever Hossa has been hurt.
In short, the Hawks were fooled last year into thinking Sharp could play center. He can play Center on a deep team where the oppositions is “wasting” their first and second lines on the Hawks third and first lines. He can play center when he has a healthy Hossa or a Versteeg/Ladd combination linemates. Sharp just can’t play center when the other team can exploit the fact that he is playing center…
by DaleHalas on Feb 8, 2011 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Wow, a lot of really good insight I wouldn't have thought to ponder
It’s almost saying the ridiculous QoC is actually a Very Bad Thing in the sense that we’re losing depth (and while it doesn’t show offensively, it does defensively as other teams send their best right at us).
by VerStig on Feb 8, 2011 1:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I'm confused on that
If the 3rd line’s QualComp is way up to the point where it is the highest in the league and they’re still outscoring their competition, wouldn’t that free up the top lines for lesser competition? If the 1st line’s QualComp was way up, then I could see it being a very bad thing, but it’s the 3rd line, made up of two new players and Bolland who most of us were concerned about and they’re over-performing.
Back to Dale’s insights…
To me the biggest issue on the top lines are the replacements, like when Hossa gets hurt. Kopecky’s, Sharp’s and Kane’s +/- negative numbers are all related to trying to maintain a second line without Hossa.I’ll try to prove that assumption and add the results to my Hossa FanPost. My mind says “of course it’s true” but I’d like to see if the numbers are as conclusive.
I don’t deny that last year’s team was much deeper. I’ve stated the same thing as you are in a different way. That “the loss of talent has taken away Q’s ability to juggle lines like last year.” What is interesting though is that you state the bottom guys this year haven’t scored when filling in on the top lines. That would imply they have been scoring more in their “assigned roles” and therefore are doing a better than expected job there, even if the 4th line is getting protected.
And to that point, last night was a great example of Q having a difficult time of getting the 4th forward line and the 3rd d-pairing out on the ice. Calgary did an excellent job of exploiting the home ice advantage.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 8, 2011 1:48 PM CST up reply actions
Good stuff Dale
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 8, 2011 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
This is great, thanks for taking the time! In the big picture though,s houldn't things like Injury and multiple point games also be taken into account? For example
you say about toews that the stats say he’s been nothing but consistant, but don’t his numbers look that way simply because he had a number of multiple point games (in the 3 – 4 point range even), which pads his numbers (for lack of better word). So he’s generating the same number of points, however he’s not doing that every game. He was also injured for longer last year with a bigger injury (just my opinion, I’ve never had a concussion or shoulder injury so feel free to tell me I’m wrong), so I’d expect he’d do better this year, but even Tazer has had games where he was relatively invisible. By the same token, Kaner played a full year last year versus this year. While he has also had multiple point games (though not to the extent of Toews I don’t think) he is playing with a lingering injury (again in my opnion, I’ve never sprained anything, just going based off of what they’ve said and the fact that he tweaked it again on Friday). so I’d expect his numbers to be down.
I still expect everyone to pick up the pace and do better, but maybe there are more variables to consider?
Retracing what I wrote and I’m not sure it makes sense. We know both Kane and tows are basically at a ppg pace, and toews is on pace for better then last year. But I’m wondering how many games they actually had a point in last year versus this year as another mark of consistency – but maybe that’s not really relevant?
by justforkicks on Feb 7, 2011 12:02 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Not sure it really is or not
That’s more in line with what Verstig mentioned above about the distribution of team goals per game. Individual players are often streaky. I think we tend to misremember what actually occurred in previous seasons, especially when the result was the Stanley Cup.
IMO the problem is not the scoring distribution, but the defensive lapses. Of all the results that came out of this post, the most interesting one to me was the one I was not looking for: the decrease in the A/G ratio. I’m not even sure it means anything, but it might. My guess it that maybe it means the Hawks are “trying to hard” or “attempting higher risk passes/pinches.” But maybe that is just a result of playing from behind more often than last year. The fact that I went back 5 yrs on the data though suggests that might also not be true. New project…
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 7, 2011 12:14 AM CST up reply actions
I'll try dusting off my VerStats machine sometime before the end of the month
I want to try to independently confirm some of the suspicions that you’re having from looking at A/G ratio by looking at my possession and movement stats — which really tell you 1) how much pressure we’re sustaining and 2) how well we’re clearing the puck and moving it up ice… respectively.
Also if I can get my database updated, I’ll finally be able to do that faceoff study that puppet wants me to do.
Send me an e-mail
I promise to respond using 500 words or less this time. It might take some time to fill my database with this year’s data, though.
by VerStig on Feb 7, 2011 3:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
major reply fail!
this was supposed to be to CNS’s reply to my comment somewhere up there
by VerStig on Feb 7, 2011 3:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks. I did mention injuries in my summaries of Kane and Hossa
but unless I make up some constant to apply for each particular injury and multiplied the results by that (for example, concussion=.95, shoulder=.85, knee injury=.80, death/Johnsson’d=.0.0), then it’s just one of those things you have to mentally consider when looking at that player’s stats. I did adjust the results to equal the number of games played by each player from last season to give some parity.
I’ll probably be delving into some more indepth stats as the season progresses since we now have some good sample sizes and relatively set lines to analyze.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 7, 2011 12:03 AM CST up reply actions
Is there a single team in the NHL not rumored to be interested in Chris Phillips?
Detroit Red Wings - Green Bay Packers - Minnesota Twins : Axis of Evil
Pretty cool stats
Marian Hossa, for all that he is making is the goat right now offensively. In a salary cap driven league guys that make what he is earning HAVE to put up points, not just back check and play well in their own end.
I really think the problem of this team is not scoring but a commitment to a different style of Hockey. This team simply does not possess the puck like the last two years. They have been running around and chasing the puck on a much more consistent basis this year.
The forwards are starting to realize they have to get their buts back in their own end this year. And how many times are we going to see this team turn it over at the opposing blueline only to give up an oddman break.
I think coach Q is trying to get them to buy into a more responsible approach when they dont have the puck, but so far it’s not catching on with these guys. Lest face it, they aren’t a defensive powerhouse team, they were good the last two years because of the puck possession game, not by shutting teams down.
The philosophy needs to change and change fast with all the away games they have left it will come right down to the wire.
Um
Yea i was on the wtf bandwagon our good players suck binge of vomiting nonsense, especially since I hate the Hossa deal it gave me an excuse. Like the player but the contract can eat a shit sandwich. But I digress.
Looking at those numbers and thinking about the season rationally is just a mind fuck. Sometime Sunday I just gave up on blaming anyone. Statistically (aside from the PK and +/- numbers) at least production wise everybody appears to be doing their jobs they just cant seem to win a close game and its irritating as hell. It’s just significantly easier to project your frustrations upon one or two people than having absolutely no explanation.
by TurdFurgeson on Feb 7, 2011 9:31 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I'm amazed that people keep harping on Hossa
He’s been injured twice (Boynton) this year and plays on a line with a sniper converted/ center whose rocking a – 20~ and fellow Slovakian Kopecky, who’s only on that line with him because he’s of the same nationality and there is some “chemistry” between them.
This isn’t supposed to be a thrashing of Kopecky, by any means, he’s played up to expectations. Maybe beyond. But often times, he’s the weakest link in terms of skill, and when a play dissolves it’s usually because Kop couldn’t control the pass or whiffed on a shot or tripped. Again, I’m pleasantly surprised with Kop so far- but he is what he is.
If you put Hossa on the top line with Kane and Toews, or legit play making center is there any doubt he’d be lighting up the score board? The idea is to win games, and we need balance and defensive responsibility and Hossa does what he’s asked, night in and night out. To pin a somewhat disappointing season on him is meatball grazing at it’s worst, IMO.
And the season is far from over. We’re 1 game into the second half, playing some real good hockey right now- back checking, winning board battles, first to loose pucks… and if this kind of effort keeps going the Hawks WILL make the play-offs and WILL be a force to be reckoned with, to the meatballs chagrin, no doubt.
No, it's definitely not thrashing Kopecky to point out his weaknesses
It’s common sense that he’s not a high caliber player and his salary falls in line with this. But like you said, he is what he is and because of the cap situation and some questionable moves (many of them in hindsight though), he’s what we’ve got. The Hawks have already filled their 50-man roster and have maxed out their number of NHL veterans in Rockford. No significant changes can be made unless they can deal 2 or 3 players.
Are there any legit 2nd line centers available? I don’t know. But even if there is, it would likely be difficult for the Hawks to pawn off 2 or 3 guys like Stalberg, Skille, Scott, Hendry, or Boynton to get one. They would probably have to throw in a high draft pick or a high potential prospect.
Some days I think Kop is meeting “expectations.” On the other hand, he is getting 2nd line minutes and time on the PP. He should be among the top scorers on the team solely based on that. But when you look at the lack of production from some of the marquee names, I find it hard to blame much of this season on him. The guy takes a beating, but he’s out there every night.
I do also feel that his biggest and most surprising contribution on the team had been on the PP. I can’t recall anyone else consistently getting to the front of the net as Kopecky. His work in the crease has a lot to do with Sharp scoring those backdoor goals on the PP.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 7, 2011 10:41 AM CST up reply actions
I feel like
Hossa should be a bad ass regardless of who is is paired with
by TurdFurgeson on Feb 7, 2011 12:28 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah seriously
It’s like people are actually suggesting he might be mortal.
by VerStig on Feb 7, 2011 12:49 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think he is a bad ass
regardless. He doesn’t have the numbers, but if you watched the games you might agree. He has at least one IMHAYN moment in just about every single game. That’s bad ass.
It’s all the little things that don’t show up on the stat sheet that I appreciate most from him. If he were paired up with a legit top 6 forward and a legit center men, you’d see some points with all those little things.
I mean seriously… Kopecky???? Who in their right mind thought that when Hossa and Kopecky came over from Scum, that two years later they’d be paired on the second line, with Sharp as their Center? No one. No one thought that. Kop spent the majority of last year on the 4th line or in the press box, and now he’s on the second line with Hossa and Sharp. And we’re getting on Hossa because his points are down.
srsly people.
And don't forget
about 98% of the commenters were pissed when he was just on the 4th line!
But I will raise my hand that I stated last season and during the summer that Kopecky would play on the 2nd line this year and that people should start getting used to it. Despite the “warnings,” I’m pretty sure no one wanted to believe it was a possibility, unless in a shadow universe.
/CNS takes a bow, gets booed off the stage – again
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 7, 2011 2:34 PM CST up reply actions
And here are the boos I predicted - I'M RIGHT AGAIN!
/CNS gives curtain call
Now I predict that cliffkoroll watched “What About Bob?” like me over the weekend.
I also predict that cliffkoroll’s answer will be a lie.
And finally I predict that cliffkoroll is pondering not answering just to prove me wrong.
Kessel, get your foot off the boat!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Feb 7, 2011 8:05 PM CST up reply actions
awesome new scrubber
My hockey-related comment: Thowing an octopus on the ice is the dumbest meme in professional sports. I'd rather throw waffles.
by puppetmasterp on Feb 10, 2011 12:23 AM CST up reply actions
He is a bad ass
All the stuff people are bitching about now (including myself) were the same things that he got scum fans all riled up for.
He just isn’t the in your face I’m a bad ass give me the puck at all times player that some expect him to be which is perfectly fine. I have come to accept that.
Big Hoss is gonna get his points and contribute. For sure. Just not in the extravagant manor some would like.
Best scrubber ever!
Second City Hockey, come for the Hockey, stay up late for the Nerdfest!
Lighthouse Hockey, come for the Hockey, stay for the the injury report!
by burpchelischili on Feb 10, 2011 5:13 AM CST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Second City Hockey
Related FanShots on Second City Hockey
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Marek Vs. Wyshynski Radio: Game Show Friday, Bobby Holik, Game 6 preview, NHL ratings debate
- Trending Topics: In praise of Jeff Carter, Mike Richards; ‘While The Men Watch’ criticism
- The John Tortorella origin story, including ground balls to the face
- NHL investigates Coyotes; Shane Doan explains tense Game 5 handshake with Kings’ Brown
- NHL Playoff Beard Watch: Blood, Sweat and Beards of unsung unshaven heroes
