SOG & Differential - Goalie vs Goalie or This Year vs. Last

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SOG & Differential - Goalie vs Goalie or This Year vs. Last

By Scott13 on Mar 9 2011, 12:10p 9

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Through 3/9/11 (or 67 games)

I've been thinking about the ups and downs of this season compared to last as well as the idea that the Hawks play hard for this goalie vs. that. I wanted to see if the numbers for SOG were dramatically telling for different periods this season (monthly) and last. Also I wanted to see what they looked like depending on who was in net. My TV is broke so while I'm waiting for Fed Ex to deliver my parts I thought I'd do some research.

Full stats below the jump:

2010-2011 Season	GP	GF	GA	GD	SF	SA	SD	W-L
All Year	67	3.21	2.70	0.51	32.12	28.54	3.58	37-24-6
Wins	37	4.08	1.92	2.16	31.57	29.00	2.57
Losses	24	2.08	3.92	(1.83)	33.04	27.04	6.00
OTL	6	2.33	2.67	(0.33)	31.83	31.67	0.17
March	4	4.50	3.00	1.50	30.75	23.25	7.50	3-1-0
February	13	3.31	2.46	0.85	31.85	30.23	1.62	8-3-2
January	11	3.00	2.27	0.73	33.73	26.36	7.36	6-4-1
December	12	3.08	2.83	0.25	30.00	28.00	2.00	6-5-1
November	14	3.29	2.93	0.36	34.21	26.93	7.29	7-6-1
October	13	2.92	2.85	0.08	31.15	32.54	(1.38)	7-5-1
Turco All	25	3.00	3.04	(0.04)	32.32	30.28	2.04	11-11-3
Turco Wins	11	4.09	2.00	2.09	32.64	31.09	1.55
Turco Losses	14	2.14	3.86	(1.71)	32.07	29.64	2.43
Crawford All	42	3.33	2.50	0.83	32.00	27.50	4.50	26-13-3
Crawford Wins	26	4.08	1.88	2.19	31.12	28.12	3.00
Crawford Losses	16	2.13	3.50	(1.38)	33.44	26.50	6.94


2009-2010 Season	GP	GF	GA	GD	SF	SA	SD	W-L
All Year	82	3.195	2.476	0.72	34.12	25.1	9.02	52-22-8
Wins	52	3.83	1.83	2.00	33.60	25.04	8.56
Losses	22	1.86	3.82	(1.95)	35.77	25.41	10.36
OTL	7	2.75	3.00	(0.25)	33.00	24.63	8.38
April	6	3.83	2.33	1.50	31.17	28.50	2.67	5-0-1
March	15	3.20	3.20	0.00	36.47	26.53	9.93	6-7-2
February	6	2.67	2.67	0.00	35.00	26.33	8.67	4-1-1
January	15	3.53	2.87	0.67	34.20	23.93	10.27	10-4-1
December	15	3.07	1.93	1.13	35.73	24.53	11.20	11-4-0
November	12	3.17	1.92	1.25	30.92	25.75	5.17	8-2-2
October	13	2.92	2.31	0.62	33.38	22.69	10.69	8-4-1
Huet All	44	3.11	2.41	0.70	34.68	23.93	10.75	26-14-4
Huet Wins	26	4.00	1.73	2.27	33.96	23.50	10.46
Huet Losses	18	1.83	3.39	(1.56)	35.72	24.56	11.17
Niemi All	37	3.32	2.51	0.81	33.27	26.19	7.08	26-7-4
Niemi Wins	26	3.65	1.92	1.73	33.23	26.58	6.65
Niemi Losses	11	2.55	3.91	(1.36)	33.36	25.27	8.09

So looking at the numbers the shot differential is significantly down from last year (+9 last year vs +3.5 this year) and that's relative to a decline in both shots for and shots against. They are generating 2 fewer SF/G and giving up 3.5 more SA/G.

The Hawks give up fewer shots against when Crawford plays vs. when Turco plays (27.50 vs 30.28) so the idea that the Hawks play better defensively in front of Crawford has some merit. However, and this is strange, both Crawford and Turco see more shots against in their wins than in their losses.

Yet what seems more determinative is the accuracy of the shooting and/or the quality of the chances. Regardless of the goalie, in the Hawks wins they generate more than 4 goals/game. In their losses it's just over 2 goals/game. The numbers are almost identical regardless of who is in net. Apparently, for this season anyway, as goes the Hawks offense so goes the Hawks. And just like last season in their wins they score on average 2 more goals, while generating two fewer shots for. And in their losses they give up two fewer goals even though they give up 2 more SOG/G. SOG doesn't seem to matter all that much.

Also, I'm not sure that shot differential is all that determinative of success so far this season for the Hawks. In the two months with their highest positive shot differential (January +7.36 and November +7.29) their records were only 6-4-1 and 7-6-1 respectively. On the other hand they had their best month in February going 8-3-2 and only had a shot differential of +1.62. (I'm temporarily ignoring their numbers so far in March as they've only played a few games and the numbers were skewed heavily by the game last night where the Hawks outshot the Panthers 39-15)