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Monte Carlo Simulation - NHL Playoffs Round 1

Below are the distributions of results from a Monte Carlo simulation I ran of the first round of the NHL playoffs.  It is based on the home and away winning percentages of each team after the All-Star break for non-shootout games ONLY.  Each series was "played" 1000 times, i.e. a random number between 0 and1 was selected for each game in each series 1000 times, was compared to the average of the home team's win pctg and visitors lose pctg, and a winner was assigned to each game.

Using these inputs, the most likely results are:

Eastern Conference Probability team advances

Washington d. NY Rangers 4-1 Washington advances 79.7%

Buffalo d. Philadelphia 4-1 Buffalo advances 64.4%

Boston d. Montreal 4-2 Boston advances 55.6%

Tampa Bay d. Pittsburgh 4-1 Tampa Bay advances 55.8%

Western Conference Probability team advances

Vancouver d. Chicago 4-2 Vancouver advances 61.9%

San Jose d. Los Angeles 4-1 San Jose advances 76.3%

Phoenix d. Detroit 4-2 Phoenix advances 61.3%

Anaheim d. Nashville 4-2 Anaheim advances 60.7%

 

And the distributions, with pctg of outcomes on the Y-axis and wins v. losses on the X-axis

Direct link to charts, click on chart to enlarge

 

 

For the record, my own personal predictions:

East - Washington 4-2, Buffalo 4-3,  Boston 4-2, Pittsburgh 4-3

West - Chicago 4-3, San Jose 4-1, Detroit 4-2, Nashville 4-3

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