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1, 2, 3, 4 (Sumpin’ New): Blackhawks at Flyers

Posted on by L_B_R
Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The Chicago Blackhawks kick off a back-to-back set Thursday night, continuing their East Coast swing with a stop in Philadelphia to take on the Flyers.

Like the New York Islanders on Tuesday, it’s been since late December that the Blackhawks last faced the Flyers, but it’s been more of a downhill slide for the team from Philly over the past few months. Back when the two teams faced off before Christmas, the Flyers were sitting second in the Metropolitan Division and in the Eastern Conference but are currently sitting five points out of the playoff spot. With only 12 games left and several teams clustered around the same point pace battling for the final playoff spots, it feels like a tall order for the Flyers to scrap their way in — especially when they haven’t been successful much as home lately.

The drop in the standings in a highly competitive East isn’t all that surprising. The Flyers are a decently structured team that more or less breaks even in quality chances (49.49 percent expected goals share), but they lack the offensive finish to capitalize and don’t possess the puck as much as needed (47.45 percent shot attempt share). They typically lean on their forecheck and pressure off turnovers, but the scoring comes and goes with too many dry spells lately. That’s led to a lot of low-margin hockey where they rely on goaltending to hold things together, which has been fine at times but not consistently strong enough to mask the lack of finish. Special teams haven’t helped much either, with a bottom of the league power play (14.8 percent) and a penalty kill that’s aggressive but not particularly successful (78.1 percent).

The top Flyer forwards have remained fairly consistent, with Travis Konecny (0.91 points per game), Trevor Zegras (0.80), Christian Dvorak (0.61), and Owen Tippett (0.60) only seeing slight dips in their production over the last few months. Others, like Sean Couturier, have fallen off a bit more (from 0.56 to 0.45), while the bottom six has remained fairly lukewarm. On defense, Travis Sanheim (0.44) has been steady, but Jamie Drysdale (0.42) and especially Cam York (0.40) have seen more noticeable declines in their production rates. Matvei Michkov has been one of the most productive in recent games with four assists in his last five games.

The Flyers lines and pairs Thursday will likely be the same as their game against the Columbus Blue Jackets Tuesday:

This will likely include Dan Vlader in net, perhaps the biggest reason the Flyers are still somewhat in the playoff race this late in the season. He currently has a .907 save percentage in 44 games as well as a top 10 goals saved above expected per 60 rate of 0.299 (just slightly better than Chicago’s Spender Knight).

With their recent 4-3 win over the New York Islanders on Tuesday, the Blackhawks now have points in nine of their last 12 games in March and have also picked up a point in six of their last seven road games (4-1-2). The second line was buzzing all night: Nick Lardis had a three-point performance (1 G, 2 A), while both Frank Nazar and Tyler Bertuzzi recorded a goal and an assist in the victory. Ilya Mikheyev scored the other goal, with top prospect Anton Frondell picking up the primary assist in his NHL debut. In goal, Arvid Soderblom had a spectacular night, finishing with a .936 save percentage on 47 shots.

Just to note, there is a segment of Blackhawks fans bemoaning any points accumulated because it hurts the team’s NHL Draft lottery odds, but it’s honestly not worth worrying about. — a strong finish from the young players is the priority regardless of wins or losses. If fans are going to standings-watch, the better place to focus is the Florida Panthers’ finish, a race that could determine whether the Blackhawks end up with a second first-round pick inside the top 15.

Speaking of young players, prospect Sacha Boisvert was a full participant at Thursday morning skate and is expected to draw into the lineup against the Flyers. He was taking line rushes with Teuvo Teravainen and Landon Slaggert, replacing Sam Lafferty.

He also mentioned that the wait for his work visa was somewhat of a blessing in disguise:

The other lines and pairs remained the same from the previous game against the Islanders. The only change is that Spencer Knight will be the starter in net Thursday.

Tale of the Tape

Blackhawks — Statistic — Flyers
45.94% (30th) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 47.45% (27th)
43.23% (32nd) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 49.49% (20th)
2.59 (30th) — Goals per game — 2.78 (25th)
3.14 (22nd) — Goals against per game — 3.00 (12th)
46.5% (31st) — Faceoffs — 52.1% (6th)
18.1% (22nd) — Power play — 14.8% (32nd)
84.5% (1st) — Penalty kill — 78.1% (20th)
(All stats from this season)

How to watch

When: 6:00 p.m. CT
Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
TV: CHSN
Webstream: ESPN+
Radio: WGN 720

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