Looking for a Friendsgiving miracle, the Chicago Blackhawks will face the Dallas Stars for the third time this season on Wednesday night at the United Center.
The rule of thumb is that if a team is projected to be in the playoffs by American Thanksgiving, they’ll likely be there come postseason, and the Stars are currently comfortably in a ranked position. Dallas is in third place in the Central Division, up two points on the Colorado Avalanche but with two games in hand and just four behind the Minnesota Wild with one game in hand. The Stars (.650) aren’t even that far off from their Western Conference-winning points percentage pace from last season (.689) despite being lower in the standings. It just goes to show how competitive the top of the Central really is this season, and the Stars are running with that top pack.
Dallas has only dropped slightly below that pace in their last 10 games, going 6-4-0 in that span, including a tough 6-4 loss in their last game against the Carolina Hurricanes. The Stars entered the third period with a 3-1 lead, but the Hurricanes scored a minute into the third and dictated the game the rest of the way. The Stars were especially disappointed in their special teams play: they failed to capitalize on three power plays and then allowed two power-play goals and one shorthanded goal against. It was a strange night for the Stars’ penalty kill — they were top-five going into the game but dropped to ninth after — but Dallas’ power play has been lackluster most of the season.
Still, despite the iffy play against Carolina, Dallas’ stars were out in force. Matt Duchene, who leads the Stars with 25 points (11 G, 14 A), picked up two assists; Tyler Seguin (1.13) and Mason Marchment (1.05), second and third in points per game rates respectively, both had a goal and an assist; and Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnson added assists as well. In addition to those four, the Stars have five other forwards that are at 0.5 points per game or better. And their top-three on the back end aren’t slouched either: Thomas Harley — who also scored against Carolina — has 10 points (2 G, 8 A), Miro Heiskanen has 9 points (4 G, 5 A), and Esa Lindell has 8 points (2 G, 6 A) in 20 games. Together, this group has the seventh ranked offense in the league and most of it is due to their dominating 5-on-5 play.
One injury to note is to No. 1 center Roope Hintz, who will not play against Chicago:
DeSmith in goal
— Mike Heika (@MikeHeika) November 27, 2024
Hintz out with tweak.
Blackwell in
Old friend Colin Blackwell will replace him in the lineup, but how Dallas will reassemble its lines without Hintz in place remains an excellent question. Here’s what they looked like with Hintz in the lineup against Carolina:
Stars in warmup:
— Mike Heika (@MikeHeika) November 25, 2024
Robertson-Hintz-Johnston
Marchment-Duchene-Seguin
Benn-Bourque-Stankoven
Bäck-Steel-Dadonov
Lindell-Heiskanen
Harley-Lyubushkin
Smith-Dumba
Oettinger
The Blackhawks are also coming off a loss after blowing a third-period lead, but that’s not exactly new for the team from Chicago. They fell 3-2 in overtime to the Flyers on Saturday, allowing three goals between the third period and overtime in the defeat.
The Stars have won both matchups this season, outscoring the Blackhawks 7-3 in those two games. The last was just three weeks ago: a 3-1 loss where the Blackhawks got close with a goal midway through the third period but who just didn’t have the offensive impact to complete the comeback. The lack of offense is kind of the No. 1 trend for Chicago right now.
Speaking of trends, we’ve passed the 20-game mark for the Blackhawks, so now is when those really start solidifying, and it’s still pretty bleak. Chicago finished 32nd and 31st in shot attempts and expected goals shares last season and are sitting in 31st in both categories this year. Chicago has been better with suppressing quality against — they’re still bottom-10, but that’s up from bottom-five last year — however, their expected goals generation rate is basically the same (2.11 last season, 2.13 this season).
So yeah, it isn’t surprising that offense is the biggest issue this season, but at least coach Luke Richardson seems to understand that too:
Luke Richardson after Blackhawks practice today: "Offensively, we just have to find something to help us get on the board more. Because we’re getting the goaltending, the defense; the special teams have really risen this year for us. That’s the one area that we have to improve on."
— Ben Pope (@benpopecst.bsky.social) November 26, 2024 at 1:33 PM
Blackhawks lines were shuffled a little after last game — again — with the most notable change being Philipp Kurashev replacing Teuvo Teravainen on the top line with Connor Bedard and Taylor Hall.
#Blackhawks lines and pairs at practice: Hall-Bedard-Kurashev Bertuzzi-Donato-Teräväinen Mikheyev-Dickinson-Foligno Maroon-Reichel-Smith Vlasic-Murphy Kaiser-Martinez Allan-Brodie Mrázek/Söderblom Scratches: Anderson, Crevier
— CHGO Blackhawks (@chgo-blackhawks.bsky.social) November 26, 2024 at 11:28 AM
It’s not that these lines are bad — they make logical sense — it’s just that it’s hard to see how Bedard can get anything of merit going when his line is changed after a single game if they don’t have instantaneous results. How is anyone meant to build chemistry that way?
One thing to watch out for in the near future: Arvid Soderblom is only a few games away from being waiver-eligible, but the timeline for Laurent Brossoit joining the team is still unknown. The Blackhawks have at least one back-to-back coming up this Sunday and Monday and then another the weekend of December 14-15. Even if the Blackhawks are able to get Brossoit back before Soderblom hits his expiration date, the team is just one goalie injury away from having a very complicated situation in net. No way the front office would want to risk Soderblom with how well Soderblom has been playing this season (.926 save-percentage) and with a handful of teams desperate for goaltending help.
And a quick note on a Blackhawks trade that happened on Wednesday: Ryder Rolston was traded to the Nashville Predators for future considerations. Rolston came to the Blackhawks in a 2021 trade and had a goal in six games with the IceHogs this season. The 2020 fifth-round pick of the Colorado Avalanche is yet to make his NHL debut.
The Blackhawks have traded forward prospect Ryder Rolston to the Predators for future considerations. Rolston, 23, has one goal in six games for the IceHogs this season. He had 10 goals and nine assists in 62 games in Rockford last season.
— Scott Powers (@scottpowers.bsky.social) November 27, 2024 at 12:06 PM
Tale of the Tape
Blackhawks — Statistic — Stars
44.37% (31st) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 53.33% (7th)
44.58% (31st) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 52.91% (5th)
2.33 (31st) — Goals per game — 3.45 (7th)
3.00 (t-13th) — Goals against per game — 2.50 (4th)
45.1% (29th) — Faceoffs — 50.6% (16th)
20.8% (14th) — Power play — 16.1% (25th)
78.7% (16th) — Penalty kill — 82.8% (9th)
How to Watch
When: 7:30 p.m. CT
Where: United Center, Chicago
TV: CHSN (How to Watch) Good luck finding it!
Webstream: ESPN+
Radio: WGN 720