(It’s a day late. I’m on vacation this week. Sue me.)
If the playoffs started today, the Blackhawks would be in the top wild card spot. That’s an admittedly dumb thing to type as of this writing on Oct. 21 of a regular season that doesn’t end until April, but that’s going to be chalked up to how admittedly dumb it’s been to watch a tanking/rebuilding team for the last several seasons. Take it for the fun moment in time that it is and move along for now. If we’re still talking about this come Thanksgiving, then we’ll discuss it more.
But there are positive signs emerging so far this season. Connor Bedard seems to have rediscovered the gear that was missing during his sophomore season and his playmaking has been noticeable, even on nights when his scoring has not. Frank Nazar appears to be on the early steps towards stardom. Sam Rinzel has recovered from a slower start to display some of the promise he showed at the end of last season. Wyatt Kaiser has been steadily excellent in virtually every game. Ryan Greene has been solid in a bottom-six role. Spencer Knight has been exceptional in goal. And every player mentioned in that paragraph is under the age of 25. Look beyond Chicago and good news isn’t hard to find there, either. Nick Lardis is leading the AHL with eight points (2 G, 6 A) after five games and Oliver Moore is off to a strong start as well (4 G, 2 A in five games). Across the pond, Anton Frondell has seven goals in 12 games as a teenager in a league largely comprised of fully grown adults. In Russia, Roman Kantserov is atop the KHL with 11 goals as part of his point-per-game start (11 G, 7 A).
Still a lengthy road ahead, of course. But hard to find too many complaints from this perspective.
The Week That Was
Wednesday, Oct. 15: Blackhawks 8, Blues 3
What a delightful night of hockey.
Friday, Oct. 17: Canucks 3, Blackhawks 2
Still uncertain about that Bertuzzi interference call.
Sunday, Oct. 19: Blackhawks 2, Ducks 1
The uniforms that the Ducks were wearing in this game made them all look like orange versions of Mega Man (derogatory).
The Melting Point of Wax
And now, it’s time for everyone’s favorite game show:
IS!
IT!
SUSTAINABLE?
/cue music
Hello everyone, and welcome to this edition of IS! IT! SUSTAINABLE?! The place where we take an unfairly small sample of Blackhawks games from the 2025-26 regular season and decide whether or not the things that happened in those games will maintain over an 82-game schedule!
Up first:
The Blackhawks currently have three players tied for the team lead with three goals apiece: Frank Nazar (27.3 shot percentage), Ryan Donato (17.6) and Ilya Mikheyev (18.8). Their career shot percentages are, respectively, 15.4, 11.2 and 11.2.
IS!
IT!
SUSTAINABLE?
OK, OK, that one was probably a bit of a stretch. There are still two strikes left, though. What’s next?
As a team, the Blackhawks are shooting 12.9 percent, which is well above the current league average of 10.7. In the last four seasons, the Blackhawks have finished the season with team shot percentages of 11.2, 8.3, 9.1 and 9.0.
IS!
IT!
SUSTAINABLE?
Uh oh … that’s 0-for-2. Let’s try one more:
During 325:20 of 5-on-5 play in the first seven games of the season, the Blackhawks are fourth in the league with an 11.94 shot percentage and fifth in the NHL with a save percentage of 0.938, adding up to a PDO mark of 1.057 that is No. 4 in the league. Keeping in mind that those PDO figures regress heavily towards a mean of 1.00 as a larger sample sizes are measured …
IS!
IT!
SUSTAINABLE?
A third and final mistake. Better luck next time on …
IS!
IT!
SUSTAINABLE?
OK, OK, some of the shot percentage things in there can be a bit of reach, yes. But the general idea of the above section is that the Blackhawks are winning games with underlying numbers which suggest they’re closer to lucky than good so far. However, it should also be noted that there is some improvement happening. We’ve long lamented that the Blackhawks have spent the last seven or eight seasons at the bottom of all the possession data at Natural Stat Trick because they consistently weren’t doing things to improve the quality — or quantity — of their puck possession. Well … that’s changed a bit. The Hawks 5-on-5 shot attempt share is currently at 46.17 percent, which is 27th in the league. Their 5-on-5 expected goal share is 46.54 percent, which is 25th in the league. Considering they were dead last in both categories with figures of 44.09 and 43.03 last season, respectively, that modest improvement shouldn’t go unnoticed. Hell, throw out the Florida game and the Blackhawks expected goal share soars to 17th in the league at 49.34.
Improvement is the point of this season, and we’ve seen it so far.
The Week That Will Be
Thursday, Oct. 23 at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa has been so good at fighting off that inevitable downfall which seems to come for every dynastic team as its star players age further and further beyond but their primes. But that may be running out a bit.
Sunday, Oct. 26 vs. Los Angeles Kings
This being a road game means LA won’t wear those horrendous purple uniforms, right? What an eyesore.