Sorry it’s late, folks. It’s been a week.
We’re about one month into this season now and we’ve talked about the process a lot and we’re going to continue to do that because that’s the path to long-term sustainability here. The good teams always seem to have the puck more than their opponents, even in the postseason, and that’s why those possession numbers are going to be a constant theme because all of those little things on the ice, all of those little 1-on-1 moments that are won, add up to more possession of the puck and more chances and more shots and, hopefully, more goals than the other team.
To be abundantly clear, though: the results are important, too. The Blackhawks process has been better this season than in so many recent seasons but the No. 1 reason why things feel so much better around this team right now is because they are actually winning games. A season-long expected goal share of 55 percent (which, for context, would’ve been No. 3 in the league last year behind the Cup champs at 55.14) would be amazing but decidedly less so if the team still ended up with 65 points and sat at the bottom of the league standings, ya know? At some point, you just have to win games.
Drafting talented players and developing them into good ones is great. Promoting them up to the NHL and giving them prime spots in the lineup is even better, as is watching those players deliver from those prime spots, and the hope is that what those players collectively do together on the ice improves the in-game process with this team that has been woeful for what feels like a decade now. Ultimately, though, the way this thing really gets going, the way we know that this team is done with all the tanking/rebuilding/whatever phase is that they start winning. It’s happening a little bit right now, leading to some of the pleasantries we’re feeling about this team. Just imagine what that could feel like if this team starts winning at a level that has them contending for a playoff spot … and then a divisional title … and on and on from there.
The Week That Was
Thursday, Oct. 30: Jets 6, Blackhawks 3
Thought the Toews angle would be more at the forefront of this game but that’ll probably be a bigger deal when he actually plays in Chicago.
Saturday, Nov. 1: Oilers 3, Blackhawks 2
I still don’t know how any Oilers fan could ever complain about Connor McDavid, ever. What else do you want him to be? He’s probably the best hockey player who’s ever existed!
Monday, Nov. 3: Kraken 3, Blackhawks 1
Now I can go back to forgetting the Kraken exist until the next time the Hawks play them. Franchise still feels irrelevant for some reason.
Wednesday, Nov. 5: Blackhawks 5, Canucks 2
That third period was just … (/chef’s kiss)
The Color of the Sky
One example of the plentiful reasons why LBR will always be the MVP of this site came earlier in the week when I asked about a correlation between shot attempts and actual shots on goal that was considered standard for the league as it sometimes feels like the Hawks have been missing the net or having shots blocked at a rate higher than usual and it made me curious about how much that can affect team success. Over the next day or two I was presented with a steady torrent of data that she’d compiled — a Bulin Wall of Text of data, if you will. What follows below is the summation of all that data, and all the thanks in the world to LBR for creating it.
The percentage of shot attempts that reached the net peaked at 55.2 percent in the 2021-22 season but was down to 46.6 percent last season, althought some of that was caused by a change in the way the NHL tracked that data: shots that were unintentionally blocked by a teammate were no longer included, explaining part of the drop there. This article dives a lot deeper into this overall topic, and you’ll notice a weird dip in the percentages below.
But here’s the data for the Hawks, displaying their percentage of shot attempts that ended up as a shot on goal along with where they ranked in the league:
| Season | 5-on-5 | All Strengths |
| 2020-21 | 56.45%, 9th | 57.5%, 6th |
| 2021-22 | 54.43%, 21st | 55.36%, 20th |
| 2022-23 | 53.29%, 15th | 54.23%, 10th |
| 2023-24 | 49.53%, 12th | 50.59%, 14th |
| 2024-25 | 48.76%, 2nd | 49.59%, 3rd |
This season, the Hawks are ninth in the league at 5-on-5 play with a percentage of 47.68 and 10th across all strengths at 48.83, so they actually haven’t been as unsuccessful at getting pucks on net as it may initially feel. League averages are currerntly 46.44 at 5-on-5 and 47.78 at all-strengths.
Now, is there any correlation between that and success? Well … it depends. I’ll quote LBR directly here:
“Carolina was at the bottom of this efficiency at 5-on-5 last season but was also the top CF%/xGF% team, but then Edmonton is at the top of this efficiency at 5-on-5 last season and was also a top-three or four CF%/xGF% team. Florida was average in terms of efficiency at 5-on-5 last season but a top-two CF%/xGF% team. So I don’t think there is much correlation between shot attempts to shots on goal efficency and possesion/expected goals, but if you have to average-to-good efficiency on top of strong possession/expected goals, that’ll push you ahead.”
So it seems like how successful the Blackhawks are at getting shots on net isn’t something to be too worried about. There certainly are teams that still pride themselves on clogging up the defensive zone enough that fewer and fewer shots make it to the net. But if the Hawks are building this team loaded with the speed and skill that we’re all hoping they have, then it shouldn’t be too difficult for them to pull defenses apart with their skating and then exploit those happenings with the necessary skills to put the pucks in the right places.
The Week That Will Be
Friday, Nov. 7 at Calgary Flames
Can’t think of Calgary without thinking of this delightful Kyle Kinane bit:
Sunday, Nov. 9 at Detroit Red Wings
A Hawks/Bears double feature on a Sunday afternoon when we might be getting our first snowfall of the season could not be timed any better.