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Where do RFAs Caleb Jones and Ian Mitchell fit in the Blackhawks’ long-term plans?

Posted on by L_B_R

The Blackhawks’ have a few decisions to make related to their blue line this offseason, especially on restricted free agents Caleb Jones and Ian Mitchell. With four veterans already signed for next season and several prospects like Isaak Phillips, Alex Vlasic, and Wyatt Kaiser – or even possibly Kevin Korchinski – vying for spots in the NHL, the Blackhawks will have to decide what’s best for the few spots that exist.

Let’s take a look how Jones and Mitchell performed this season, how they might slot into the lineup next season, and if one or both or neither are worth re-signing.

Caleb Jones

Jones played in 73 games this season – the most in his NHL career – and amassed 16 points (4 G, 12 A)while averaging 19:13 in ice time. That’s pretty solid bottom-pair results and playing time.

It’s a little less solid when you dig deeper, though.

At 5-on-5, his points per 60 rate was 0.55 and he contributed to only 25 percent of the goals scored while he was on the ice, both of which were eighth among Blackhawks defenders. That’s a little odd, considering how much time Jones was deployed in the offensive zone (57.14 percent) and against lower quality of competition. On the other hand, the Blackhawks, in general, were a bad offensive team, and he spent a lot of time with the bottom-six players. So Jones was not able to make complete use of his easier assignments but he also wasn’t particularly helped by his teammates, either. Still, if Jarred Tinordi can contribute to 50 percent of the goals scored while handling a more defensive role, you’d think a more offensively gifted player like Jones could at least get into the range of 30-35 percent.

When you include power-play time – where Jones spent 1:33 per game and four of his points were scored – this contribution jumped to 66.67 percent, which is strong for a predominantly second-unit player. Seth Jones was only at 42.86 percent, for comparison, typically playing with better guys. Some of this is skewed by the fact that the second power-play unit scored much less, thus the possibility of contribution being higher, but Caleb Jones was still pretty decent with the man advantage and could be used in that role in the future.

But why didn’t the younger Jones brother contribute more offensively at 5-on-5? It’s pretty clear when you look at his micro stats:

He had both a low shot rate (2.77 per 60) and shot assist rate (3.65 per 60). Again, some of this is due to who he was on the ice with the most – the bottom-six were just not generating shots or receiving passes as much – but neither of these rates dramatically increased (less than 0.3 for each over average) when he was with his brother or top-six players like Patrick Kane or Max Domi. We know Jones has the ability to jump into plays and score (see clip below), but he didn’t have a quantity or quality of results at a consistent level this past season to really take off.

Shifting to defense, defending the blue line was one of Jones’ better skills this past season, statistically. Primarily, he was good at preventing the opposing team from entering with possession (successful about 50 percent of the time), especially when they were trying to carry the puck in (16.2 percent). That latter number may seem low but, for comparison, that’s slightly better than the 15.59 percent from Carolina’s Jaccob Slavin. Granted, Slavin acted as a No. 1 defensemen in deployment and coverage while Jones was the opposite. When Jones wasn’t able to prevent entry, he did see a higher number of those entries against that resulted in scoring chances, but his overall work at the blue line was solid.

Jones’ transition is somewhat of a mixed bag: he had some bright spots, but his bad was so bad, he landed in the “worst of the NHL” category. This is another odd thing given his generally good skating ability, but it makes more sense when you remember his puck handling and decision making with the puck can be iffy. For entries, his quantity was good: he attempted to enter the zone frequently, as his rate of 7.11 zone entries per 60 is above average for a defensemen and was third on the Blackhawks after Seth Jones and Issak Phillips. The quality of those entries is a bit worrisome, though, as every one of those stats in the graphic above are in the red because his entries lacked control and didn’t result in much offensive opportunity.

Furthermore, while Jones had a high quantity of defensive zone (DZ) retrievals with 17.49 per 60, only 8.26 per 60 of those ended up in exits, which was below league average – another quality problem. He also had issues with botching those retrievals (turnovers, failed possession, etc.) with a high rate of 8.26 per 60 – only Jack Johnson and Nikita Zaitsev were worse with the Blackhawks. Jones was very good in clearing the zone, though – his 2.88 clears per 60 was best on the Blackhawks and well above average in comparison to the league – but he had 2.19 turnovers per 60 overall at 5-on-5 this season (fifth most). And 7.24 turnovers per 60 if you only look at those only in the DZ (easily the worst on the team and well above league average).

However, some perspective is needed: the Blackhawks, in general, were not good in most of these stats. Only Seth Jones was league average or better in terms of exits and only Jake McCabe had positive botched numbers on the team, for example. Some of these botches were turnovers that resulted in scoring chances or goals against, though, and overall, C. Jones was still one of the worst in the league in the tracked data points:

Caleb Jones’ play in the DZ in terms of coverage was also often frustrating. Beyond the turnovers mentioned above, the most common complaints against him were a lack of ability to read plays when defending in his own zone or just being out-worked on plays. These types of plays are harder to quantify, but they included: coverage breakdowns, watching the puck instead of the player, poor positioning, and more. Sometimes, it was so rough, Jones struggled to simply stay on his feet. The most concerning part is not necessarily the volume of mistakes, but rather the likelihood of those mistakes resulting in scoring chances or goals against.

Ultimately, Jones’ season was pretty up and down: he wasn’t quite as bad as the narrative around him suggested, but there were definitely some key areas of concern in his performance, huge mistakes, and not a lot of improvement year over year in regards to either of those points. Still, he’s probably “fine” as a third-pairing defensemen, especially if the quality of the team is higher than what the Blackhawks produced last season.

Ian Mitchell

There’s not really another way to say this: it was a rough season for Mitchell. The 24-year-old played in just 35 games this season, often rotated out in favor of pylon-like veterans, and only had a few bursts of looking like the player he was once touted as a prospect. Now, one can argue that it was difficult for Mitchell to be consistent, considering how he was yanked out of the lineup and sat so much, but he also didn’t necessary make a great case for him to remain in the lineup, either. Although, once again, that was true of many defensemen for the Blackhawks last season.

Mitchell ended up with one goal and seven assists this season, a points-per-game rate (0.23) that’s on par with Caleb Jones (0.22). His points-per-60 rate (0.84) is a bit better, but Mitchell’s 15:50 average ice time was the third lowest among Blackhawks defenders who played more than 10 games, ahead of only Zaitsev and Andreas Englund.

However, like Jones, Mitchell didn’t have many positives in his quantity or quality of shot contributions at 5-on-5. But if Jones’ individual shot contributions were low, then Mitchell’s were in the basement: he had a 2.41 shots per 60 rate and only a 1.59 primary shot assists per 60 rate, both at or near the bottom for Blackhawks’ defensemen. Like Jones, quality of teammate likely plays a role, but this level of negativity is well beyond that. For someone who was known as a playmaking defenseman in the NCAA and AHL, it is disappointing to see that Mitchell hasn’t been able to translate that skill at the NHL level other than in brief flashes here and there.

Mitchell was also given some time on the power play (1:19 per game, on average) when he was in the lineup, but he only tallied one assist and had the lowest rate among defensemen on the PP in these categories: shot attempts (9.41 per 60), scoring chances (2.69 per 60), and expected goals (0.24 per 60). He also created zero rebound opportunities, something a power-play defensemen absolutely needs to be able to do. The other two most common defensemen used on the power play – Seth Jones and Caleb Jones – created 2.04 and 3.15 rebounds per 60, respectively.

There was a stretch, later in the season, when Mitchell was objectively better, at least offensively: the 10 or so games after Jan. 18 when he saw a good improvement on everything mentioned above, especially in his rates of shots (6.2 shots per 60) and scoring chances (3.1 per 60). Ben Pope of the Sun-Times goes into this time of play for Mitchell more here, including some comments from both the player and Blackhawks assistant coach, Kevin Dean in the article linked below. But the issue with Mitchell is the same with C. Jones: he’ll have periods of good play, but there is no real consistency to his performance.

Blackhawks realizing Ian Mitchell is most effective when allowed to be himself
Mitchell’s defensive weaknesses remain an issue, but he can still succeed in the NHL — and even cover up those weaknesses somewhat — when encouraged to play to his offensive strengths.
Chicago Sun-TimesBen Pope

For such a good skater, Mitchell had some struggles in transition this season, especially when getting out of the defensive zone (bringing back the same charts from above). His DZ retrievals per 60 rate of 8.50 was meager, so as a result, his retrievals that led to exits – just 5.31 per 60 – was also pretty terrible. His botched retrievals rate was slightly better/lower than Caleb Jones at 7.44 per 60, but by no means is that a good number, either. On top of that, Mitchell’s clears per 60 (0.53 per 60) were the lowest on the team and his attempts at exiting with possession (4.78 per 60) weren’t much better at fourth lowest.

Mitchell’s entry play was better but still not good. For example, his zone entries per 60 rate of 6.37 was fourth among Blackhawks regulars, but that’s still below the league average of 6.79. It shows that Blackhawks defensemen in general struggled with getting into the offenzive zone. His carry-in rate of 25 percent, though, was only better than Tinordi (12.9 percent) and on par with Zaitsev (25 percent) on the Blackhawks and obviously below league average.

Despite having worse micro stats than Caleb Jones overall, Mitchell didn’t have quite as harsh of critiques, mostly because Mitchell’s mistakes seemed smaller, if that makes sense. Mitchell was typically quieter and somewhat more responsible in the defensive zone when it came to coverage, being positionally aware, and had far less egregious turnovers, but it’s not like he was a particular standout in the there, either. Goals against in which he played a role often were ones in which he was simply outmaneuvered or overpowered.

In the same Sun-Times article linked above, Dean specifically mentioned that Mitchell needed to work on being stronger when defending while not losing who he is as a player:

“Does he need to work on his defending? Yes. He needs to be stronger. But don’t lose who you are as a player, and then let’s work on defending a little bit harder and stronger… The other message for him is, ‘Be clean with the puck.’ If you get a chance to break the puck out and not have to defend, you better do it. Because [if you don’t], the laws of physics will take over, and you’ll be getting pinned against the wall by guys 15 pounds heavier.”

Size isn’t really the issue with players like Mitchell, as there are plenty of defensemen who are around his size of 5-foot-11 and 193 pounds who are just fine playing in the NHL. But as Dean mentioned in the quote above, the real issue is about strength: Mitchell hasn’t done a good enough job compensating for that lack of size with being strong on the puck. Duncan Keith was never heavier than Mitchell was (though he was taller), but he was such a strong player that it didn’t matter when Keith’s opponents had more weight because Keith was going to take and keep that puck regardless of that weight difference. Mitchell is never going to be a player of Keith’s quality, but he could still be a useful NHL player if he could figure out how to be stronger and smarter with is own physicality (or lack thereof).

Ultimately, Mitchell never found his groove this season with the Blackhawks, and while it can be argued some of that was due to lack of consistent playing time, it still doesn’t change the fact that he really didn’t do much.

Who should the Blackhawks sign of the two – if either?

Neither of these players should be in the long-term goals of the Blackhawks, so it really depends on the contract the two are looking for, as they should not be signed for more than a two-year period at most. Their qualifying offers are super low – Jones’ is $735,000, while Mitchell’s $874,125 – so the amount doesn’t matter as much as the term, as the Blackhawks will have several defensive prospects with higher potential who should be making the transition to the NHL in the coming seasons.

For next season, specifically, the Blackhawks currently have four defensemen signed for next season in Seth Jones, Murphy, Tinordi, and Zaitsev, which already limits some of the room for incoming defensive prospects. Players like Vlasic or Phillips – and Korchinski if he’s ready – should definitely be a higher priority for a roster spot and playing time than Jones or Mitchell, but either of the latter two could slot in as the seventh defensemen pretty easily. Jones had better results than Mitchell and clearly had the trust of the coaching staff more – additionally, Jones can technically play both sides – so he’d be the better option (as long as we can stomach the occasional major disaster that is bound to happen).

There’s been speculation that Zaitsev may be bought out this summer by the Blackhawks, but this doesn’t really change the fact that really only one of these two guys should be re-signed, if that. There are also likely better options via trade or free agency than both, but in what is sure to be another transition rebuilding year, the seventh defenseman isn’t really that big of a concern.

Talking Points