Examining Taylor Raddysh’s drop-off in performance during the ’23-24 season

With the 2023-24 Chicago Blackhawks, forward Taylor Raddysh played in 73 games.

He averaged 15:53 of ice time, yet amassed just 14 points (5 G, 9 A), a substantial drop from the 2022-23 season when he played in 78 games, averaged a career-high 16:34 of ice time, and ended up with 37 points (20 G, 17 A)

So what the hell happened here?

One obvious culprit? A 4.2 shot percentage this season, well below the 15.5 percent from 2022-23 which was always going to be an outlier, considering his career mark is 10.2 percent. But a more sizeable explanation points to what we discussed about Raddysh at the end of his rookie NHL season in 2022-23.

https://www.secondcityhockey.com/chicago-blackhawks-2022-23-nhl-season-review-taylor-raddysh-statistics-analysis-commentary-projections/

That season, Raddysh averaged 3:18 of ice time per game on the man advantage, the leader among players who ended the season in Chicago, with trade-deadline departures Patrick Kane and Max Domi the only ones ahead of him. This season, he was down at 1:48 per game, which was seventh among the 19 Blackhawks forwards who appeared in at least 15 games. And his production suffered, with Raddysh tallying just three power-play points (1 G, 2 A) this season after notching 15 (7 G, 8 A) during the 2022-23 season. That was one of the significant questions raised about Raddysh in the article above: would his overall production survive an expected decline in power-play time when those opportunities went to other players?

This season offered substantial evidence towards the negative side of the equation. Here\'s the power-play goal, by the way:

https://twitter.com/CRoumeliotis/status/1731424461998493908

Raddysh did see consistent PK opportunities for the first time in his Blackhawks career, something that emerged from a training-camp conversation with coach Luke Richardson, as reported by Ben Pope of the Sun-Times on Halloween. He did not skate a second of PK time in 2022-23 but was second only to Jason Dickinson among forwards on the team with an average PK ice time of 1:33 per game this season. Still, there\'s nothing in the numbers to suggest Chicago was especially good or bad with Raddysh on the ice.

It\'s a similar story at 5-on-5, the portion of the game where Raddysh tallied 10 (3 G, 7 A) of his 14 points last season.

The news isn\'t much better for Raddysh at 5-on-5, either, where Raddysh scored 10 points (3 G, 7 A) while averaging 12:32 of even-strength ice time per game, seventh among Blackhawks forwards. His two most common linemates were Tyler Johnson and Nick Foligno, which is a step down from Jonathan Toews and Philipp Kurashev, who were Raddysh\'s top-two linemates last season.

Still, Raddysh\'s 5-on-5 production was flat out abysmal this season. There were 16 Chicago forwards who skated at least 200 minutes at 5-on-5 this season. Among that sample, Raddysh\'s productions rates were dreadful:

Last in goals scored per 60 minutes (0.2)

Second-to-last in total assists per 60 (0.41)

Last in total points per 60 (0.61)

He was towards the middle of the pack overall in terms of both quality and quantity of chances that he generated (8th in shots on goal/60 at 6.14, 8th in iSCF/60 at 5.87, 8th in ixG/60 at 0.64), which means there was some measure of scoring chances available when Raddysh was on the ice, but those scoring chances were very rarely capitalized upon by Raddysh or his linemates. Oh, and all of this happened while Raddysh started in the offensive zone 49.49 percent of the time -- fourth-best on the team (Sidenote: a player having an oZS% below 50/50 yet still being fourth-best among Chicago forwards helps explain just how often the Blackhawks were pinned in their end of the ice).

There aren\'t many positives to be gleaned from the microstats detailed at the All Three Zones project, either:

Last season, Raddysh at least displayed some decent passing ability which suggested he could be a solid compliment to players who had the ability to put the puck in the net:

There\'s just not much positive to be drawn from Raddysh\'s second full NHL season. He was decent enough in 2022-23 to warrant another look in 2023-24, but this substantial step in the wrong direction makes it unlikely that there\'s a long-term place in Chicago for a veteran of 225 NHL games who turned 26 last February. Raddysh is a restricted free agent this summer and isn\'t going to command much more than the $758,333 he made last season. Without a ton of forwards moving up the pipeline, Raddysh could be back again next season but there will need to be monumental signs of progress in 2024-25, or Connor Bedard may need to find another place to hang out when he\'s nursing an injury:

https://twitter.com/_phil_thompson/status/1768340566050295875

Corey Crawford Tier

Connor Bedard Tier

Examining Taylor Raddysh’s drop-off in performance during the ’23-24 season

Talking Points