The Blackhawks trek through Western Canada to open the 2024-25 season comes to a close on Tuesday night with one final game in Alberta against the Calgary Flames.
Of all the teams residing in Western Canada, the Calgary Flames are the one owning a 3-0 record early in the season, just as we all expected. The most recent of those three victories was a 4-1 up further north in Alberta over the now 0-3 Edmonton Oilers, which makes all of this a little more hilarious. Calgary currently owns the No. 4 PDO in the league at 108.4, a statistic that combines a team’s save percentage and shot percentage which typically regresses heavily to the mean of 100 as more data is presented. That’s all to say the Flames are due for a statistical regression at some point because an 82-0 record seems a smidge unlikely for this bunch. It calls to mind the 2022-23 Blackhawks, who ripped off four straight wins in October and then went 4-23-4 over the next 31 games. The market correction is almost certainly coming and it likely won’t be pleasant.
Calgary seems to be a team trending in the wrong direction lately overall and without a robust prospect pipeline that’s going to turn things around in the near future. The Flames peaked with 111 points in the 2021-22 season but lost Johnny Gaudreau (/skypoint) to free agency that summer and made the trade that Matthew Tkachuk requested, which crumbled the foundation that seemed to be assembling on their collective shoulders. The teardown of what seems to be Calgary’s inevitable rebuild started last season with the trading away of veterans like Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev, Elias Lindholm and Ryan Johansen. More could be on the way this season, too.
With Calgary scoring 16 goals in its first three games, it already has seven players with four points or more, led by the trio of forward Martin Popisil (1 G, 4 A), forward Jonathan Huberdeau (3 G, 2 A) and defenseman Rasmus Andersson, who each have five points through three games. That average of 5.33 goals per game is certainly not sustainable and the Flames haven’t exactly been the ’85 Bears on defense, averaging three goals against per game — a number that seems closer to reality than the aforementioned 5.33. Dustin Wolf gets the start in the Calgary net for this one, which has the potential to be a higher-scoring affair than most would’ve anticipated at the start of the season.
While we’re on the topic of teams with stats likely due for regression: the Chicago Blackhawks power play is currently tied with the Winnipeg Jets for tops in the league at a cool 42.86 percent (3-for-7) following Saturday’s three-PPG eruption in Edmonton over the weekend. Since Chicago won its last game, the expected lineup for this game will be similar to what skated against the Oilers and took the ice for Monday’s practice, with Petr Mrazek getting the nod in goal. Donato heading to the press box in favor of Craig Smith on the fourth line looks like the only change.
Two wins from a four-game road trip to start the season would be a perfectly acceptable result for this Blackhawks side, and bringing home a total of five points from the eight possible seems above average relative to expectations. But the only way to do that is to nab two more from Calgary this evening. The Flames have been unsustainably good to start this season, so perhaps the game this evening is the time when things start crashing back down to Earth for them. Wouldn’t hurt if the Blackhawks put together a solid 60 minutes to help yank them back down towards the Flames’ expected place in the standings by the end of the season. Of course, Chicago’s expected to be down there, too, so it genuinely feels like just about anything is possible this evening. That’s sort of the fun of it all, right?
Let’s go Hawks.
Tale of the Tape
Blackhawks — Statistic — Flames
43.71% (32nd) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 51.20% (13th)
42.37% (31st) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 50.49% (17th)
2.17 (32nd) — Goals per game — 3.09 (19th)
3.52 (29th) — Goals against per game — 3.26 (22nd)
46.3% (29th) — Faceoffs — 49.6% (20th)
16.60% (28h) — Power play — 17.9% (26th)
75.76% (27th) — Penalty kill — 80.8% (9th)
(All stats from last season)
How to Watch
When: 8 p.m. CT
Where: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
TV: CHSN (How to Watch)
Webstream: ESPN+
Radio: WGN 720
Also, a quick note for Xfinity users because of the ongoing CHSN issues: Channel 3072 is the Blackhawks’ channel for the Center Ice package, and a Google search suggests a free trial of it remains open until October 18, aka this Friday. Worth a shot once again!