The Chicago Blackhawks host the Detroit Red Wings on Sunday night at the United Center, the same day they plan to retire Chris Chelios’ jersey.
The Red Wings are currently sitting in the top wild card playoff spot in the Eastern Conference thanks to a four-game winning streak. While it’s unlikely they’ll jump to the top three in the Atlantic Division — the Toronto Maple Leafs are six points up — they’ve also put some distance between themselves and the New Jersey Devils who are sitting six points back, so Detroit is the closest they’ve come to securing a playoff berth for the first time in eight years.
Interestingly, despite currently being a playoff team, the Red Wings are one of the worst statistical shot metric teams at 5-on-5: their shot attempt share (45.60 percent) and expected goals share (45.17 percent) are both 29th in the league, only slightly better than Chicago’s 31st and 32nd rankings, respectively. To put it into even more perspective, the Red Wings have the second highest shooting percentage (10.64) at 5-on-5 despite having the second worst rate of expected goals (2.23), with the Blackhawks being the only team below them. Detroit’s top-six inflates the shooting percentage a bit due to sheer skill, but the discrepancy between generating quality chances and scoring actual goals there is a question of sustainability vs. a regression coming.
This also means that the Blackhawks have better odds than usual of coming out of this game with a potential win — the Red Wings are still a better team with some elite top-end talent and a pretty deep group of forwards, but they’re not that much better at the team level (outside of shooting skill), and they’re coming in tired as Detroit played on Saturday night. The Blackhawks will need to keep penalties to a minimum because where that shooting skill is absolutely brutal — and sustainable — on opponents is the Red Wings’ 8th ranked power play.
Speaking of that top-end talent, the big story for Sunday is obviously the return of Patrick Kane to the United Center for the first time as an opponent. He comes in leading the Red Wings in points over the last five games with seven (4 G, 3 A), while riding a seven-game points streak (10 points), and a point-per-game pace on the season (26 in 26). Dylan Larkin is the only other point-per-game player on the team with 51 points (25 G, 26 A) in 51 games, but Alex DeBrincat (0.88) and Lucas Raymond (0.84) aren’t too far off. The Wings have four other forwards — J.T. Compher, Daniel Sprong, David Perron, and Robby Fabbri — and two defensemen — Shayne Gostisbehere and Moritz Seider — producing at a 0.5 point-per-game or better as well.
The Red Wings are expected to keep the same lineup they’ve run the last several games, including their 6-1 win over the St. Louis Blues Saturday night:
As for the Blackhawks, they had a fairly strong showing against the Winnipeg Jets on Friday, a game in which they ultimately lost 3-2 but pushed to overtime through hard work, high effort, and a never-give-up attitude that resulted in a 14-7 edge in shots on goal and a Tyler Johnson goal in the third period to push for extra hockey. While it was ultimately their third loss in a row and 11th loss in their last 12 (gross), it was a much more entertaining game to watch as a fan. Hopefully, Chicago can bring that effort and performance level again Sunday night as they take on the Wings.
Despite not having a point in his last two games, Connor Bedard still leads the Blackhawks with six points and two goals in their last five games. His primary linemates, Nick Foligno (2 G, 3 A) and Philipp Kurashev (1 G, 3 A) along with one of his power-play partners Tyler Johnson (2 G, 2 A), are next up in terms of production in that span. Only four other Blackhawks have registered a point — Colin Blackwell, Joey Anderson, Jason Dickinson, and Seth Jones — highlighting the offensive woes for Chicago.
As for lines, the Blackhawks will likely start with a similar lineup as what faced the Jets on Friday, though those lines were shuffled somewhat during the actual game. The main change was Anthony Beauvillier moved to the top line to play with Bedard and Kurashev for much of the latter half of the game, which pushed Nick Foligno down to play with T. Johnson and Taylor Raddysh.
Petr Mrazek will also start for the Blackhawks, completely expected as they want the best chance of winning on Chelios night.
Tale of the Tape
Blackhawks β Statistic β Red Wings
43.97% (31st) β 5-on-5 Corsi For β 45.60% (29th)
42.18% (32nd) β 5-on-5 Expected goals for β 45.17% (29th)
2.07 (32nd) β Goals per game β 3.51 (5th)
3.52 (28th) β Goals against per game β 3.18 (20th)
45.9% (31st) β Faceoffs β 49.4% (27th)
12.8% (32nd) β Power play β 23.3% (8th)
77.7% (22nd) β Penalty kill β 82.5% (7th)
How to watch
When: 5:00 p.m. CT
Where: United Center, Chicago, IL
TV: NBC Sports Chicago, NHL Network
Webstream:
Radio: WGN 720
Also: The ceremony for Chelios’ jersey retirement starts at 3:10 p.m., with any fans attending the game encouraged to be in their seats by 3 p.m. That ceremony will air live locally on NBC Sports Chicago and on the NHL Network for those outside of the area.