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Country Grammar: Blackhawks vs. Blues Preview

Posted on by L_B_R
Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Blackhawks continue their season-ending homestand on Saturday afternoon at the United Center against the St. Louis Blues.

Since the turn of the new year, the Blues have played better than their first-half disaster suggested, but not nearly well enough to make the turnaround complete and qualify for the playoffs. They tightened up defensively, got steadier goaltending, and generally looked more competent after the new year, including putting together mostly break-even shot metrics like a 49.63 percent shot attempt share and 50.22 percent expected goal share in that span. Unfortunately for the Blues, despite the improvement, the team was just never able to string together the kind of run needed to erase their ugly start. So, instead of mounting a real playoff push, St. Louis has mostly spent the last few months hovering in that annoying space where they’re more respectable to bottom out but never actually close enough to matter — and now sit effectively out of the race despite being mathematically alive.

In their last 10 games, the Blues have gone a respectable 6-3-1, but that’s capped off with back-to-back losses this week: a 3-1 defeat to the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday followed by a 3-2 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday. Up front, the offense has been driven largely by Dylan Holloway (1.4 points per game) and Robert Thomas (1.3) with Jordan Kyrou and Jimmy Snuggerud also chipping in at a 0.70 PPG rate apiece. On the blue line, Philip Broberg (0.90) has continued to be a major contributor offensively too. However, the rest of the roster has been merely fine, and with the Blues averaging just 3.00 goals per game in that span (22nd in the league) their late push has ultimately been too little, too late too make up much ground.

The Blues lines seem to be pretty consistent despite the two recent losses. Below are what they rolled with at practice Friday. Joel Hofer is the likely starter, and he has a .910 save percentage in 43 games this season.

The Blackhawks have taken the opposite path from the Blues, sliding hard in the second half and into the race for the league’s second-best draft lottery odds. They’ve also now dropped two straight, most recently getting embarrassed 7-2 by a Carolina Hurricanes team on Thursday that was missing seven regulars, including several of its best players. At this point, the losses themselves are whatever … it’s the way they’re happening — sloppy, disconnected, and without much push — that’s frustrating.

The bright side is Anton Frondell has looked even better than advertised, posting eight points (3 G, 5 A) in his first nine NHL games and actually leading the Blackhawks in scoring over the last 10 despite playing one fewer game. Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, and Tyler Bertuzzi are all at 0.70 points per game in that span as well, so the top of the lineup is still producing some offense. The problem is it simply hasn’t been enough to overcome the constant defensive breakdowns elsewhere.

The other encouraging note for Chicago is that the Blackhawks have done well against the Blues this season. They did lose a close 3-2 game back in December, but in the other two meetings the Blackhawks thoroughly handled St. Louis, outscoring the Blues 15-6 in a pair of lopsided wins. A other victory is absolutely possible against this mediocre Blues squad if the Blackhawks put in their best effort.

The Blackhawks tweaked their lines at Friday’s practice, with Sacha Boisvert drawing back into the lineup on the fourth line while Landon Slaggert came out. Ryan Greene was bumped up to the top line, reuniting with Connor Bedard and Nick Lardis, while Teuvo Teravainen slid down to the fourth line alongside Boisvert and Andrew Mangiapane. The other two forward lines remained unchanged.

Also of note, Oliver Moore (lower body) is back on the ice skating and practicing on his own, though not yet with the team. He’s still not expected to return for any of the final three games, but the progress is nice to see and suggests he should be ready for a full, normal offseason of training.

Tale of the Tape

Blackhawks — Statistic — Blues
45.57% (30th) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 48.15% (24th)
42.38% (32nd) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 49.19% (22nd)
2.54(31st) — Goals per game — 2.65 (29th)
3.27 (25th) — Goals against per game — 3.08 (21st)
46% (31st) — Faceoffs — 49.3% (19th)
17.7% (26th) — Power play — 17.4% (28th)
84.0% (2nd) — Penalty kill — 76.2% (28th)
(All stats from this season)

How to watch

When: 4 p.m. CT
Where: United Center, Chicago
TV: CHSN
Webstream: ESPN+
Radio: WGN 720

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