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Four Walls of Raiford: Blackhawks at Panthers Preview

On the road against the reigning Cup champions.

Posted on by L_B_R
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Blackhawks are kicking off February on the road, facing the Florida Panthers in Sunrise for a matinee match on Saturday.

The Panthers have been just alright in their last 10 games (5-4-1) but with three of those wins coming against two bottom-five teams in the league: the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks. They’ve been having issues against teams sitting in playoff positions or vying for them, including the Los Angeles Kings and Detroit Red Wings. This has caused the Panthers to lose some ground in the standings, but they’re still sitting comfortably in second in the Atlantic Division based on points percentage (.606) and within spitting distance of the top team, the Toronto Maple Leafs. With Toronto currently on a three-game losing streak, a win against the Blackhawks would be quite timely in helping Florida retake the top seed in their division.

Despite good-but-not-great results of late, the Panthers are one of the best shot statistical teams in the league: second in terms of shot attempt share (54.68 percent) and fourth for expected goals share (54.30) at 5-on-5. Defensively, they’re one of the best shot-suppression teams, which will likely be an issue for a Blackhawks team struggling recently to generate shots on goal lately (they’ve averaged just 21.1 shots over their last 10 games).

Offensively, the Panthers have an elite trio — Sam Reinhart (1.04 points per game), Matthew Tkachuk (1.0), and Aleksander Barkov (1.0) — and three others who are above average in Carter Verhaeghe (0.67), Anton Lundell (0.65), and Sam Bennett (0.62). Tkachuk has been especially productive recently with 7 points (2 G, 5 A) in his last five games. After them, production drops but the bottom-six is a strong defensive group to offset the lower point production. Aaron Ekblad (0.52) is their top two-way defender, as usual, and his partner, Gustav Forsling, is one of the best defense-first blue-liners in the league.

The Panthers lines have been very steady this season and they’re expected to be the same as the ones they rolled on Wednesday when they beat the Los Angeles Kings 3-0, including having Sergei Bobrovsky in net. The Russian netminder has been having just an alright season with a .901 save percentage, but he is coming off a 29-save shutout.

The last time the Blackhawks saw the Panthers, they were victorious to the tune of a 3-1 score all the way back in late November. Although the score was in favor of the Blackhawks, it was one of those games where the goalie — in this case Petr Mrazek — had to be great, stopping 32 of 33 shots while his team was dominated in every shot category to an absurd degree. It was also one of the games in which Connor Bedard was being used in a checking role. Glad we’re away from that experiment, at least. Still, the Blackhawks have managed to play better against stronger teams, including previously against the Panthers, so hopefully that performance will continue Saturday afternoon in Florida.

Recently, the Blackhawks have only won two games in their last 10 but picked up points in three others, an improvement in the blowouts they were seeing on either side of New Year’s Day. That includes in their latest game, a 3-2 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday. Kind of wish the Blackhawks could have poured a little more on the adventurous, freestyling Pyotr Kochetkov, but alas, it was not meant to be.

Even if there haven’t been too many wins lately, there is positive momentum with many of the young kids: in the last five games, Frank Nazar and Connor Bedard both have four points (2 G, 2 A), Lukas Reichel has a pair of primary assists and Colton Dach and Landon Slaggert have both scored. The latter three aren’t lighting the world on fire in terms of production, but their energy, speed, and effort has been noticeable.

As for lines, the top two remain the same but the bottom six has been shuffled a little. Basically, Reichel and Ryan Donato are swapping places, with Reichel and Dach reunited but also demoted to playing on the fourth line with Pat Maroon — who is replacing Philipp Kurashev, as expected after his issues last game — while Donato slots between Landon Slaggert and Nick Foligno.

Annoyingly, both Nolan Allan and Ethan Del Mastro are expected to be scratches against Florida. While it’s great that Connor Murphy is back from injury, it’s highly vexing that TJ Brodie is staying in as his partner to create the maybe the slowest pair in the league instead getting in one of the younger defensemen. This isn’t a knock too much on Murphy, by the way: he is slow but has been compensating well this season by being smart, something that cannot be said as much for Brodie.

Since Arvid Soderblom played the last two games, it’s most likely Mrazek that will get the nod as the starter in Sunrise.

Blackhawks — Statistic — Panthers
44.34% (32nd) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 54.68% (2nd)
43.85% (30th) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 54.30% (4th)
2.61 (31st) — Goals per game — 3.19 (9th)
3.39 (29th) — Goals against per game — 2.92 (15th)
45.1% (30th) — Faceoffs — 49.5% (22nd)
23.8% (9th) — Power play — 24.2% (8th)
81.5% (11th) — Penalty kill — 79.4% (1st)
(All stats from this season)

How to watch

When: 12 p.m. CT
Where: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL
TV: ABC
Webstream: ESPN+
Radio: WGN 720

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