After back-to-back losses last week in which they were outscored 7-2, the Chicago Blackhawks will host the Minnesota Wild at the United Center on Sunday night.
The Wild are having a great start to the season, currently sitting in second place in both the Central Division and Western Conference and third overall in the league with a 10-2-2 record and .767 points percentage. But while the Wild are a solid team, they are over-performing a bit: they have middling shot metrics at 5-on-5, owning only 48.40 percent share of shot attempts (21st)and 50.07 percent of expected goals (16th), but they’re also riding a high shooting percentage (10.96 percent, 6th) and team save percentage (.934 percent). It’ll be interesting to see if the Wild can sustain their current streak of success without improving their underlying numbers.
Still, the fact is the Wild are successful right now, winning eight of their last 10 games. Like the Blackhawks, Minnesota is coming off two games in two nights last week, though their matches were both 5-2 victories in California over the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks. The two wins helped Minnesota keep pace with the other top-five teams which are all on win streaks of their own.
In terms of players, the main one to watch is Kirill Kaprizov, as usual. He has six points (2 G, 4 A) in those last two games, bringing his season total to a league-leading 27 (9 G, 18 A) in 14 games. The 27-year-old star has been especially dominant at 5-on-5 play with 15 points while factoring into nearly 90 percent of all goals scored when he is on the ice, the second highest in the top 20 behind only fellow Russian Artemi Panarin (92 percent), who has fewer points (11). It’s still very early in the season obviously, but considering how good the Wild have been this season and with Kaprizov being the team’s early MVP — seriously, no one else is within 10 points of him — it’s easy to see why he’s being heralded as a potential Hart trophy winner.
Outside of Kaprizov, the Wild do have a very productive top-six, led by three players playing at close to or more than a point-per-game pace in Matty Boldy (1.07), Mats Zuccarello (0.93), and Marco Rossi (0.93). Joel Eriksson Ek and Frederick Gaudreau round out the top lines with eight points each in 12 and 14 games, respectively. The bottom of their roster is slightly less potent offensively, although Ryan Hartman (3 G, 1 A in 9 games) and Marcus Foligno (3 G, 2 A in 14 games) are solid complimentary contributors. Again, some of these players are shooting at an unsustainable rate, but there’s no disputing they’re a talented group.
The Blackhawks should especially keep an eye on Rossi, who is a high-danger scoring chance machine making a bit of history himself:
On defense, last year’s Calder nominee Brock Faber is showing he’s not a one-hit wonder with nine points (2 G, 7 A) in 14 games while skating 25 minutes a night. His primary partner right now, Jake Middleton, also has a 0.67 point-per-game rate, though he plays about five fewer minutes a night. Jonas Brodin (6 points in 14 games) and Jared Spurgeon (3 points in 8 games) round out the top-four for the Wild.
Lines for the Wild in Chicago will likely be similar to the last game against the Ducks, with the only swap on the bottom defense pairing. Filip Gustavsson will be in net; he has a .920 save percentage and 2.30 goals-against average in 10 starts this season.
As mentioned above, the Blackhawks haven’t been as lucky as the Wild lately — or this season, let’s be honest — currently skidding on a two-game losing steak. They fell 4-1 to the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday and followed that up with a 3-1 loss to the Dallas Stars on Thursday. The lone Blackhawks goals in each game were scored by Nick Foligno and Tyler Bertuzzi, respectively. The one bright spot in either game was Arvid Soderblom’s performance in the latter, when he made 37 saves on 39 shots for a .949 save percentage. He’s only played in four games this season, but they’ve all been respectable outings, especially considering how he couldn’t string together even a couple of good games last year.
The two recent losses were a bit of a disappointment, considering how well the Blackhawks had played the prior weekend against the Los Angles Kings and Anaheim Ducks, but been the up-and-down story of the season for Chicago. With a win for the Nashville Predators last night and due to the ROW tie breaker, the Blackhawks officially sit last place in the Central, second to last in Western Conference, and third to last in the league with a .367 points percentage.
Bertuzzi’s goal against Detroit brought his total to three in his last five games, which leads the team in that span, and also puts him tied for most points (4) in that span with Connor Bedard (all assists) and Ryan Donato (2 G, 2 A). Taylor Hall and Connor Murphy have three assists in those games as well while four players — Foligno, Lukas Reichel, Seth Jones, and Alex Vlasic — have two points each. The Blackhawks actually had offensive contributions from all but three players who played in at least three of the last five games, so despite their record being mixed (2-3-0), the Blackhawks have been producing across the lineup — it’s just not been enough production to win consistently.
The lines the Blackhawks rolled at practice on Saturday had some minor tweaks from the Dallas game: Foligno and Hall swapped places on the top two lines, Pat Maroon will take the place of Ilya Mikheyev on the fourth line, and TJ Brodie is sitting in favor of Isaak Phillips. Petr Mrazek is the likely starter in net.
Personally, I’m still not sold on Bedard and Lukas Reichel being together on a line. Yes, Reichel has been a delight with his play this season, even when not producing, and Bedard is the straw that stirs the Blackhawks’ offense, but they do not seem to mesh well. It possible that the two will in the future, but I’d rather see Teuvo Teravainen back with Bedard. The duo had chemistry, and a short cool streak really shouldn’t have broken them up for so long, especially since the second line of Hall, Bertuzzi, and Philipp Kurashev has only been on the ice for one goal for and four against together with one of the worst expected goals shares (43.85 percent), despite being the second most common line combination.
In injury news, Alec Martinez practiced with the team for the first time since being placed on injured reserve for a groin injury. Coach Luke Richardson hasn’t mentioned when he was expected to be back in the lineup, but it seems it’ll be sooner rather than later.
it’s still unknown when Laurent Brossoit will be game-ready, as Richardson says it’s taking much longer than expected for the goalie to recover from his meniscus tear. Luckily Soderbolm has been playing well, as mentioned above, so there’s no need to rush Brossoit at this time.
One last note: the Blackhawks haven’t seen the Wild since the preseason, when the team from Minnesota outscored the Blackhawks 13-3 in two games. But Chicago has played much better this season than they did back then, so let’s hope Sunday’s game is a little more competitive.
Tale of the Tape
Blackhawks — Statistic — Wild
43.71% (32nd) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 49.65% (20th)
42.37% (31st) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 50.91% (15th)
2.17 (32nd) — Goals per game — 3.02 (21st)
3.52 (29th) — Goals against per game — 3.17 (20th)
46.3% (29th) — Faceoffs — 47.3% (26th)
16.60% (28th) — Power play — 22.7% (T-10th)
75.76% (27th) — Penalty kill — 74.5% (30th)
(All stats from last season)
How to Watch
When: 6 p.m. CT
Where: United Center, Chicago
TV: CHSN (How to Watch)
Webstream: ESPN+
Radio: WGN 720