How can Bedard find the next steps towards realizing his superstar potential?

Last offseason, our discussion regarding Connor Bedard centered on what felt like a step back during his second NHL season, given the general decline in his rates of production among other mostly negative trends. Bedard\'s third season saw a return to an upward trajectory, as Bedard established new career highs in a bunch of categories: goals (30), assists (45), points (75), shots on goal (226), shot attempts (421), shot percentage (13.3) and more.

The return of positive trends was a welcome development, but it also feels like there\'s still more unearthed potential within Bedard to be discovered, right? Based on everything projected and said of Bedard prior to the draft and what he\'s done so far -- there better be.

So how is that superstar talent going to be unlocked?

Befor we answer that, a quick summary of that third season. We don\'t need to get too deep into the data for confirmation of what all of our own eyeballs took in last season: Bedard was just ... better. There was a noticeable boost in his skating as a result of his offseason work and that seemed to spark an uptick in more offensive contributions in just about every measurable way. Look at all the blue from this season\'s player card from Corey Sznajder\'s All Three Zones project:

Looks much better than the 2024-25 card below, right?

Bedard\'s player card from the JFresh hockey data shows some improvement as well, with the 2025-26 season up first:

And the 2024-25 player card next:

We know the possession numbers are bad because the team\'s possession numbers were bad and no individual effort was able to rescue them. The NHL\'s EDGE data explains it all pretty well, indicating that Bedard was in the offensive zone below the league average and in the defensive zone above the league average:

The peak of Bedard\'s season was probably the Nov. 30 game against the Ducks, with Bedard posting a four-point night (2 G, 2 A) while damn near singlehandedly willing the Hawks to a 5-3 victory . After that game, Bedard was up to 37 points (16 G, 21 A) in just 25 games, a pace of 121 points over a full 82. Bedard was injured a few weeks later and never quite rediscovered the incredible pace he enjoyed during the first two months of the season.

That stretch was wildly encouraging, though, because that was on par with the player we were promised ahead of the 2023 NHL Draft: one who\'d be among the top point producers in the NHL for a significant stretch of his career. Now, the lingering question becomes whether or not Bedard can maintain that torrid pace -- injury or not -- for a full season and have his name alongside the McDavids, the Kucherovs and the MacKinnons of the league.

Speaking of those three names: it seemed worthwhile to examine their trajectories to see if it can offer any clues into what we can expect out of Bedard going forward. We\'re going to ignore McDavid because he\'s a singular hockey talent that won\'t be worth much to this discussion. The other two, though, have a common theme.

The early struggles of MacKinnon\'s career matched the collective struggles of his team. Colorado did make the postseason in his rookie season (2013-14) but then steadily trended downward until one of the worst regular seasons of all-time in 2016-17, with Colorado having just 48 points in those 82 games. MacKinnon had a team-high 53 points (16 G, 37 A) that season -- his fourth in the NHL -- in 82 games, better than the 38 and 52, respectively, he had the prior two seasons but still below his rookie mark of 63 points. His top linemates that season were Mikko Rantanen and Gabe Landeskog.

In 2017-18, the Avs erupted for 95 points and made the playoffs, with MacKinnon tallying 97 points (39 G, 58 A) in 74 games. His top linemates? Once again: Rantanen and Landeskog.

How about Kucherov? He has a summer birthday (June) just like Bedard (July) so the physical maturation is similar. After playing 52 games in 2013-14, Kucherov skated the full 82 in his age-21 season (which Beadrd is about to have in 2026-27) and had 65 points for that season\'s Stanley Cup runner-up. He steadily trended upward for the next two seasons: 66 points in 77 games during 2015-16 and 85 points in 74 games in the 2016-17 season. Some may recall that this was the reign of the \"Triplets Line\" Kucherov was on with Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson, who were Kucherov\'s most common linemates for those three seasons. The 2017-18 saw Steven Stamkos become Kucherov\'s top linemate and the result was Kucherov\'s first 100-point season.

One of the biggest takeaways there, from this perspective, is that both enjoyed linemate continuity in the earlier stages of their careers before they reached the heights of their powers. Let\'s keep that in mind with two other players who are not quite on the Kucherov/MacKinnon level but could be trending in that direction.

Injuries have been Jack Hughes\' biggest nemesis but the 2019 No. 1 overall pick had just 21 points (7 G, 14 A) in 61 games as a rookie, followed it with 31 (11 G, 20 A) in 56 in 2020-21, eclipsed a point-per-game pace in his third season at 56 (26 G, 30 A) in just 49 games in 2021-22 then had his best season in 2022-23 with 99 (43 G, 56 A) in 78 games. In that second season, his top linemates were Yegor Sharangovich (355:49) and Janne Kuokkanen (303:03). In 2021-22, it was Sharangovich again (506:00) and Jesper Bratt (264:04). In 2022-23, it was Bratt (567:46) again and Erik Haula (462:46). Sharangovich probably tops out as a second-liner at best but Bratt became a star himself while playing alongside Hughes.

There\'s also Jason Robertson, with a July birthday as Bedard has and who played his first full NHL season after turning 21 (again, as Bedard will do this summer). Robertson started with 45 points in 51 games in 2020-21, followed with 79 points in 74 games in 2021-22 and then shot up to 109 points in 2022-23. His top linemates? In each of those seasons, it was Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz. Pavelski was well into his 30s by that point but still producing, while Hintz was in his mid-20s and emerging as one of the games better all-around centers.

You know where this is going, right?

Bedard\'s top linemates this season were Andre Burakovsky (580:54) and Ryan Greene (559:37). Burakovsky is now a buyout candidate and while Greene appears to have a solid NHL career in front of him, it\'s not going to be in a top-line role. Last season, it was one-year wonder Ryan Donato and a not-as-good-as-he-was-this-season Tyler Bertuzzi. In Bedard\'s rookie season, it was Philipp Kurashev and Nick Foligno. No thank you.

Based on everything above, it sure seems like the path to superstardom for forwards in the NHL requires a little help along the way in the form of consistent linemates who have enough talent themselves that they can help the future star their potential. MacKinnon had Landeskog and Rantanen. Kucherov had Palat and Johnson. Robertson had Hintz and Pavelski. Hughes had Bratt. Bedard has ... ?

All of those players referenced above started soaring towards superstardom in their early-20s. Bedard turns 21 this summer. That he hasn\'t reached those lofty heights yet seem to be more a result of the environment around him than anything he hasn\'t done on his own. In fact, we may not be giving Bedard enough credit for accomplishing what he has in his career while playing alongside teammates with abilities far below his.

We ended our discussion one year ago with a question that remains every bit as true now:

Who\'s going to play with Connor Bedard?

Corey Crawford Tier

Connor Bedard Tier

How can Bedard find the next steps towards realizing his superstar potential?

Talking Points