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My Snowman and Me: Blackhawks at Maple Leafs Preview

A trio of games up north begin on Tuesday night in Toronto.

Posted on by L_B_R
Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Blackhawks travel north to Toronto as the Blackhawks and Maple Leafs each try to put an end to a two-game losing skid.

The Leafs’ season to date has been defined by inconsistency and unmet expectations: instead of sitting comfortably in the Atlantic mix, they find themselves a handful of spots outside the playoff picture, stuck in the muddled middle of the Eastern Conference. The wins haven’t come in bunches, defensive lapses have been a recurring issue, and the overall product has felt disjointed for a team that entered the year with designs on being a contender rather than a bubble team. It’s not been the best run of things lately, either: the Leafs have lost three of their last five games, including two in a row coming into Tuesday night. In short, the fact that Toronto isn’t completely buried is thanks to how close the East is currently, but the margin for error is shrinking, and the next stretch of the season will go a long way toward determining whether this becomes a course correction or another year of uneasy scoreboard watching in Toronto.

It’s been about a month since the Blackhawks last faced the Leafs, and the story up front hasn’t changed much. Toronto’s offense is still driven by the core four: William Nylander (1.26 points per game) leads the way, followed by Matthew Knies (1.04), who has firmly established himself as a legitimate scoring threat. John Tavares (0.97) remains reliable, while Auston Matthews (0.81) is having a quieter year than usual. After that quartet, production drops off sharply to forwards like Easton Cowan (0.43) and Max Domi (0.41), making it impressive that the team’s offense still ranks near the league’s top.

On the back end, Morgan Rielly tops the defense in scoring (0.77), with Oliver Ekman-Larsson close behind (0.68). Jake McCabe contributes nearly half a point per game as well, giving Toronto a blue line that can chip in offensively. Combined, that’s enough to keep the Leafs’ attack in the league’s upper tier (3.29 goals per game, tied for fifth in the league), though it still hasn’t consistently compensated for lingering defensive issues.

Unlike the last time Chicago saw them, the Leafs will have Matthews in the lineup, and they recently opted to load up the top line with him, Knies and Nylander as a kind of nuclear option.

Should also note that reports from Tuesday’s morning skate indicate that Joseph Woll will return from an injury that’s kept him sidelined since Dec. 4 and be the starting goalie for Toronto in this game.

With another set of back-to-back losses, this time being outscored 7-2 by the St. Louis Blues and Detroit Red Wings, the Blackhawks have now won just one of their last five games. It’s the kind of stretch that makes you shake your head: flashes of promise here and there, but consistently undone by defensive lapses, shaky goaltending, and scoring droughts. At this pace, the Blackhawks are firmly stuck in “grit-your-teeth-and-hope” territory, and unless something clicks quickly — which is made all the more difficult to do with the loss of Connor Bedard, who will be out until at least early January — the slide could stretch longer than anyone wants to see.

The Blackhawks did call in reinforcements: Nick Lardis joined the lineup against Detroit, and while he didn’t find the scoresheet, he was one of the more offensively engaged players on the ice. On Monday, Chicago also recalled Ethan Del Mastro, who’s ended last season with the Blackhawks on a high note and has been a steady presence in Rockford lately. It’s a bit surprising that Kevin Korchinski didn’t get the nod, given he’s the IceHogs’ top offensive defenseman and has been making strides to round out his game this season. Still, it’s likely the coaching staff wanted a more defense-first player like Del Mastro to help address the team’s recent defensive struggles at the back.

The good news is the Blackhawks did win the last time they faced the Leafs, a 3-2 victory on Nov. 15 where Bedard didn’t actually factor directly into any goals. Instead, it was a more balanced team effort with three of the four lines contributing. Ryan Greene got things started with a first-period one-timer off a crisp feed from the blue line, Teuvo Teravainen tied it early in the third, and Colton Dach tipped home the game-winner midway through the final frame. The Blackhawks are going to have to score by committee like this more often than not to compensate for the loss of Bedard.

That committee will not include Arytom Levshunov, though, who was late to practice on Monday and is being punished as a healthy scratch for this game.

Here are the players who will play for Chicago:

Tale of the Tape

Blackhawks — Statistic — Maple Leafs
46.81% (28th) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 45.60% (30th)
44.39% (31st) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 48.68% (20th)
2.84 (24th) — Goals per game — 3.29 (t-5th)
3.00 (t-15th) — Goals against per game — 3.26 (23rd)
46.6% (28th) — Faceoffs — 56.9% (1st)
21.5% (10th) — Power play — 14.3% (t-30th)
84.4% (4th) — Penalty kill — 82.6% (10th)
(All stats from this season)

How to watch

When: 6 p.m. CT
Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
TV: CHSN
Webstream: ESPN+
Radio: WGN 720

Your other option for watching the game is to join us at Flo & Santos in the South Loop for a Second City Hockey watch party!

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