Monday’s win over the Colorado Avalanche marks 10 games for the 2024-25 Chicago Blackhawks, which gives us a nice, round number and a decent enough sample to see if this team has taken the step forward its GM suggested they were going to do at the end of the prior season.
We’ll compare this season’s figures after 10 games to last season’s figures at the same point while comparing those figures to the totals from the 2023-24 season as a guide for where the team may head from this point.
Let’s start off with some basic statistics to get our feet wet:
| Stat | 10 games, ’24-’25 | 10 games, ’23-’24 | 23-’24 Season (Rank) |
| Record | 3-6-1 | 4-6-0 | 23-53-6 (31st) |
| Points % | 0.350 | 0.400 | 0.317 (31st) |
| GF/GM | 2.70 | 2.40 | 2.17 (Last) |
| GA/GM | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.52 (29th) |
| PK% | 77.4 | 84.9 | 75.76 (27th) |
| PP% | 21.2 | 11.1 | 16.60 (28th) |
| SH% | 9.61 | 9.16 | 8.27 (32nd) |
| SV% | 0.887 | 0.902 | 0.892 (25th) |
Chicago also has a goal differential of minus-6 this season (27 for, 33 against) after being at minus-10 last season, largely because of an 8-1 loss to the Arizona Coyotes. Overall, though, there’s nothing wildly different about the team except for some offsetting factors. It’s been slightly better in the columns of goals both for and against. The penalty kill has taken a step down while the power play has taken a step forward. The shot percentage is up a bit but save percentage is down — and down a bit more.
As last season progressed, the offensive production trickled down while the defensive performance steadily declined and it seemed like the only way the team won was due to a Herculean effort in net from Petr Mrazek. This season’s team is not supposed to be so reliant on goaltending for victories, so we’ll see if those trends continue in ’24-’25. Right now, the biggest indicator between a Chicago win or a Chicago loss seems to be on special teams:
Let’s zoom in a little closer at some of those possession metrics to see if the Blackhawks have been any better at 5-on-5 play this season, because they were possibly the worst 5-on-5 team in the league last season. Data in the table below comes from the always excellent Natural Stat Trick.
| Stat | 10 games, ’24-’25 | 10 games, ’23-’24 | 23-’24 Season (Rank) |
| 5-on-5 CF% | 47.29 | 44.33 | 43.71 (Last) |
| 5-on-5 xGF% | 48.38 | 42.15 | 42.32 (31st) |
| 5-on-5 SCF% | 45.87 | 42.48 | 41.66 (31st) |
| 5-on-5 HDCF% | 46.39 | 37.57 | 39.81 (Last) |
| 5-on-5 Goals | 17 for, 18 against | 14 for, 26 against | 118 for, 202 against |
| 5-on-5 GF% | 48.57 | 35.00 | 36.88 (31st) |
| 5-on-5 PDO | 0.994 | 0.973 | 0.978 (30th) |
| 5-on-5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.906 | 0.908 (25th) |
Signs of progress, right? Chicago is better in every category here, in terms of both quality and quantity of puck possession. Because of that, the goal differential at 5-on-5 is minus-1 instead of the minus-12 it was at this point of the ’23-’24 season.
Although this team seems to have better numbers overall, it’s still just one point behind the pace it set last season, when it finished with an absurdly low 52 points by the end of the season. Why is that?
Perhaps looking at some of the numbers above as rates can answer that question.
| Stat | 10 games, ’24-’25 | 10 games, ’23-’24 | 23-’24 Season (Rank) |
| CF/60 | 57.67 | 54.61 | 50.77 (Last) |
| CA/60 | 64.27 | 68.59 | 65.38 (30th) |
| SF/60 | 28.07 | 27.04 | 25.34 (30th) |
| SA/60 | 27.44 | 35.93 | 32.81 (30th) |
| SCF/60 | 24.01 | 25.08 | 22.7 (Last) |
| SCA/60 | 28.33 | 33.97 | 31.79 (31st) |
| HDCF/60 | 9.78 | 8.49 | 8.82 (Last) |
| HDCA/60 | 11.31 | 14.11 | 13.33 (31st) |
| GF/60 | 2.16 | 1.83 | 1.77 (31st) |
| GA/60 | 2.29 | 3.4 | 3.03 (31st) |
| xGF/60 | 2.39 | 2.29 | 2.11 (Last) |
| xGA/60 | 2.55 | 3.14 | 2.88 (29th) |
Again, in general here, Chicago is better. Most of the “for” categories are up while most of the “against” categories are down. But the more sizable changes seem to be in all of the “against” categories. For example, Chicago has 1.03 more shots on goal per 60 (28.07 this season, 27.04 last season) but has allowed 8.49 fewer (27.44 this season, 35.93 last season). Chicago’s generated 1.39 more high-danger chances but allowed 2.80 fewer. They’ve scored 0.33 more goals per 60 but allowed 1.11 fewer per 60.
The point is that the Blackhawks are playing lower-event hockey this season, it seems, which has resulted in a better defensive effort overall, and that’s narrowed the significant gap which existed on the ice between the Blackhawks and their opponents last season. But the offense still isn’t doing a ton of work at 5-on-5, which is why this team hasn’t taken significant steps forward from where it was last season. Power-play goals have been the only savior in that department, but relying on that for victories won’t end well — especially with this offense-deficient roster.
Chicago had three victories in games 10-20 last season. We’ll see what this bunch does.