Number Munchers, Part II: Searching for the road ahead

A couple of items left to tackle under this Number Munchers banner before we move away from the team-focused analysis for a while.

As promised on Monday, let\'s take one more look at the Hawks numbers from last season, breaking it into a trio of datasets based on the eras within the last season.

We\'ll open with Games 1-19, which ends after the 5-2 win over Calgary on Nov. 18 and the Hawks at a record of 10-5-4 that was probably the peak of the season because they lost the next five, the Bedard/Nazar injuries arrived soon after, and everything went to hell. We\'ll leave the middle chunk as Games 20-62 from Nov. 19 until March 7, which would include that dreadful game the night of March 6 just hours after the trade deadline expired. The final portion is then the remaining 20 games, when the lineup was more and more kid-heavy as the end of the season approached.

2025-26 CHI Games 1-19 Rank Games 20-62 Rank Games 63-82 Rank Record 10-5-4 9th 13-24-6 31st 6-10-4 28th CF% 45.39 29th 46.94 28th 43.10 31st SF% 45.01 29th 45.11 32nd 42.37 31st SCF% 44.51 30th 44.98 31st 39.13 32nd HDCF% 42.18 30th 42.06 32nd 35.78 32nd GF% 58.44 4th 38.20 32nd 40.43 30th xGF% 44.81 28th 43.66 32nd 37.47 32nd SH% 11.87 1st 8.37 26th 9.77 17th SV% .931 3rd .889 30th .894 19th

Well, that didn\'t go so well.

There\'s not much more point in looking at the numbers from the last Hawks season, is there? The closest thing to a positive sign from that data is that the higher shot percentages in the first and last samples suggest the Hawks could have some decent finishers on the roster and that better possession of the puck in the future will lead to more goals being scored because of the opportunities those finishers will be presented. But that requires an extremely long reach to grasp and we don\'t want to base an entire rebuild on it.

Instead, let\'s flash back to a thought offered at this site a few weeks ago , regarding the lack of progress for the Hawks in the standings as compared to some of the other teams near them at the bottom of the standings after the 2022-23 season. By tracking how those teams have progressed over the last four regular seasons, perhaps that can offer some clues as to the specific path forward for the Hawks. Obviously, roster additions can be the explanation for many of these progressions below, so we don\'t need to dive too far into an explanation of why things happened for these teams. We\'re more concerned with what happened.

Let\'s start with Anaheim, and we can acknowledge their coaching change ahead of the 2025-26 season. All numbers are from Natural Stat Trick and are based on 5-on-5 play:

Anaheim Points Rank CF% Rank xGF% Rank SH% Rank SV% Rank 2022-23 58 32nd 42.67 32nd 39.93 32nd 7.94 25th .912 19th 2023-24 59 30th 46.39 27th 46.01 28th 7.62 30th .909 23rd 2024-25 80 25th 45.9 30th 45.10 30th 8.80 18th .921 7th 2025-26 92 18th 52.35 6th 50.77 13th 8.88 25th .893 29th

The Ducks took a mighty leap a couple of seasons ago, which appeared to be driven by better puck luck and significantly better goaltending. This season, better possession helped the Hawks move up even further despite drops in that puck luck and their goaltending.

Up next are the now-former Arizona Coyotes:

Arizona/Utah Points Rank CF% Rank xGF% Rank SH% Rank SV% Rank 2022-23 70 27th 45.13 29th 44.55 28th 9.09 9th .914 17th 2023-24 77 27th 48.53 22nd 48.53 23rd 9.66 5th .913 15th 2024-25 89 19th 53.23 6th 53.73 5th 8.32 24th .913 13th 2025-26 92 15th 53.13 4th 52.66 6th 10.32 7th .901 21st

It\'s been a steady upward trend for this side, which also saw much better possession numbers in the last two seasons as it continued its ascent up the standings, resulting in an initial playoff qualification this spring.

How about Columbus?

Columbus Points Rank CF% Rank xGF% Rank SH% Rank SV% Rank 2022-23 59 31st 44.92 30th 44.18 29th 7.67 30th .901 30th 2023-24 66 29th 47.76 23rd 46.13 27th 9.03 11th .912 19th 2024-25 89 20th 48.59 21st 48.91 22nd 10.51 3rd .908 19th 2025-26 92 17th 50.82 11th 51.83 8th 9.14 22nd .911 10th

Again, appears like an overall improving trend in the possession stats, aided at times by better goaltending and a superior shot percentage. But as that latter category fell off during this season, the improvement everywhere else ensured they ended up with more progress -- even if the majority of it came during the final few months of the season.

Now for everyone\'s rebuilding darlings in eastern Canada.

Montreal Points Rank CF% Rank xGF% Rank SH% Rank SV% Rank 2022-23 68 28th 45.51 28th 43.73 30th 9.16 5th .905 27th 2023-24 76 28th 45.63 29th 46.41 26th 9.15 9th .919 9th 2024-25 91 17th 47.49 28th 47.03 28th 9.54 8th .901 25th 2025-26 106 6th 48.64 23rd 48.59 23rd 11.30 1st .906 14th

Montreal\'s always had decent finish but continued improvement in the possession numbers and slightly above league average goaltending was the final catalyst for a jump into a triple-digit point total by the end of the season.

Let\'s stay out east but come back to the states:

Philadelphia Points Rank CF% Rank xGF% Rank SH% Rank SV% Rank 2022-23 75 26th 47.40 25th 47.84 23rd 7.81 27th .913 18th 2023-24 87 21st 51.58 8th 52.49 7th 7.65 29th .895 32nd 2024-25 76 29th 47.95 24th 51.81 9th 9.29 13th .890 32nd 2025-26 98 11th 47.73 26th 50.71 14th 10.24 10th .905 15th

The Flyers had a step forward, then a step back, and then a massive leap forward. The possession numbers haven\'t moved in the same direction as their point totals have, though.

And now for the Sharks:

San Jose Points Rank CF% Rank xGF% Rank SH% Rank SV% Rank 2022-23 60 29th 48.60 21st 49.97 18th 8.78 14th .893 32nd 2023-24 47 32nd 43.8 31st 41.83 32nd 7.06 31st .899 31st 2024-25 52 32nd 45.55 31st 43.96 31st 8.29 25th .900 26th 2025-26 86 24th 46.95 28th 46.91 27th 10.12 11th .897 25th

That 34-point leap this season seems to outpace the other columns here, which suggests it may not be on the sturdiest foundation. Guess we\'ll find out later this year, eh?

A massive jump next season isn\'t impossible: plenty of the above teams experienced improvements of 20 or 30-plus in their point totals from one season to the next. Chuck another 20 on this season\'s point total and we\'d be watching playoff hockey right now.

The real question is how they get there, and it sure seems necessary for there to be improvement from the team as a whole -- not just a few individual standouts, like we\'ve seen the last few seasons -- to have things move in the proper direction. Once we get to that point, when the Hawks aren\'t dragging at the bottom of damn near every stat that exists, then we should see this team move from the bottom of the standings, too -- just like the teams that used to be near them.

Talking Points