Calder Cup Playoffs Series Preview: IceHogs vs. Iowa Wild

Although the Chicago Blackhawks season is over, there is some playoff action that their fans might be interested in: the IceHogs will be facing off against the Iowa Wild in the play-in round to open the 2023 Calder Cup Playoffs.

It’ll be a best-of-three series starting Wednesday night at the at BMO Center in Rockford.

How We Got Here: Rockford finished fifth in the Central Division

After starting off strong, the IceHogs had a rocky finish to the season, needing to win the last game just to secure their position in the playoffs. Rockford hovered around second in the division throughout the first three months of the season, but slowly descended as the season progressed until they were fighting for their postseason destiny. However, the IceHogs managed to scrap enough points together in their last 10 games, going 5-5-0-0, and clinched a postseason berth with a 4-1 win over the Milwaukee Admirals in the last game.

January is where things really started to fall apart: the roster was hit with several key injuries, absences due to recalls to the Blackhawks, and then some young players struggled after returning from playing in the NHL. The IceHogs ended up losing seven straight games in January, making them drop in the standings as a result, and they went on to struggle to maintain .500 hockey after that. The AHL and NHL trade deadlines also caused problems as several teammates either left for other organizations or spent even more time up with the Blackhawks.

Top Blackhawks prospect Lukas Reichel, unsurprisingly, had the best point-per-game rate (0.93) in Rockford. Like the IceHogs, Reichel had a roaring start to the season in the AHL with an impressive 37 points (14 G, 23 A) in his first 32 games before the January slump took effect. The turning point for him was after he returned from his second stint with the Blackhawks on Jan. 14: he had just three goals and seven assists in 19 games. That 0.5 points-per-game pace was less than half the rate he’d been producing earlier. Reichel ended up spending all of March and the start of April with the Blackhawks, where he was one of their best players, and then came back to the IceHogs to finish with five points (3 G, 2 A) in the last four games to help them make the playoffs.

Reichel ultimately finished with 20 goals and 31 assists, a solid sophomore campaign. He’s obviously the forward Blackhawks fans will be most interested in watching.

Last season, the IceHogs were a very young team, so the Blackhawks intentionally found veterans for this year’s roster to supplement the youth. The most important vet trio was David Gust, Luke Philp, and Brett Seney. Gust and Philp both had recent playoff experience: last season, Gust won the Calder Cup with the Chicago Wolves and Philp reached the Western Conference Final with the Stockton Heat. Seney had never played in the post season, but he’s been racking up points in the AHL regular season with the Binghamton Devils and Toronto Marlies for several years.

The trio finished the season as the top three scorers for the IceHogs, often on a line together and acting as the catalyst for the team’s offense along with Reichel. Gust led Rockford in actual points with 59 (26G, 33A) in 65 games, setting a new career-high. Philp was one of very few players not affected by the offensive slump starting in January, racking up 17 points (12G, 5A) in the last 18 games of the season to hit 53 points in 60 games total. Seney was just behind Reichel in points-per-game with 0.92.

These three also combined for two of the four goals in the playoff berth-clinching win over the Admirals:

The IceHogs traded for more veteran support at the trade deadline. First, Rocco Grimaldi came over from the San Diego Gulls and had 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 16 games with Rockford. Scond, Joey Anderson arrived from the Toronto Marlies, though he spent most of his time in Chicago – he played in only two games with Rockford but picked up three assists in that span. Grimaldi finished the season with 73 points (33 G, 40 A) in 70 AHL games and Anderson had 30 points (14 G, 16 A) in 32 AHL games. These two have spent the last two games on a line with Reichel, and it looks like they’ll be linemates in the first playoff game as well.

After the top-six, the IceHogs have a pretty big drop in production, which is part of why they struggled in the back half of the season.

Michael Teply is next up with a 0.45 points-per-game rate this season and one of only two Blackhawks prospects left in Rockford’s forward group. His season started slow, but he actually finished with a solid 12 points (4 G, 8 A) in his final 20 games. The IceHogs really need him to keep his momentum because he’s the only scoring threat in their bottom-six currently.

Mike Hardman, the other Blackhawks forward prospect left, had just five goals and 13 assists in 58 games for Rockford this season in a mostly fourth line role.

Buddy Robinson, Bobby Lynch, D.J. Busdeker, and Kale Howarth round out the bottom half of the roster, and while they’re decent defensively, this group isn’t really known for their secondary scoring.

Just to note: Gavin Hayes and Ryder Rolston both signed amateur tryout deals with the IceHogs after their NCAA seasons ended with their respective teams. Neither played a game with Rockford during the regular season, and it’s unlikely they’ll get do so in the playoffs barring injuries to the IceHog regulars – but you never know.

On defense is where the Blackhawks have most of their prospects, and like last year, it’s also where most of the hope is for the IceHogs to have any playoff success this season. There are three players – Issak Phillips, Alec Regula, Alex Vlasic – that will definitely get the lion’s share of the playing time but after that it could shuffle around.

Phillips was arguably the best defenseman for the IceHogs this season in terms of being the most well-rounded: not only has he made significant strides defensively – especially in shutting down and/or breaking up opposing plays – he put up a respectable 0.45 point-per-game rate in 51 games. He played the highest average minutes per game of any Rockford defensemen and in all situations. His partner often rotated, but Regula was with him on the top-pairing in the last several games. Regula was second only to Phillips in consistency when it came to offense, and he ended the season with five goals and 16 assists in 51 games.

Vlasic is the most poised, defensively structured defeseman in Rockford. He’s able to use his impressive reach and gap control to limit opponents space in the defensive zone, especially on the penalty kill. He’s not known for his offense, but he also isn’t a black hole there: he picked up three goals and 17 assists in 56 games. Vlasic has one of the best stretch passes on the team – he just needs to use it more. Rockford also leaned on him heavily in defensive situations, such as whenever they needed to protect a lead late.

Vlasic was often paired with Louis Crevier this season, an imposingly large partnership that worked extremely well in shutting down other players. However, Jakub Galvas – who actually led the defensemen in points with 29 (3 G, 26 A) in 64 games, albeit most game in the first few months – combined the last few games with Vlasic to create a more balanced pairing. Galvas played the most games among IceHogs defensemen this season, but seemed to get less playing time as the season progressed until being paired with Vlasic. The IceHogs likely can’t afford to not play Galvas, considering how much they need offense.

Filip Roos and Andy Welinski were one of the most common pairings down the stretch as well, and both can be described as steady but not necessary standout defensemen. Roos has played in 39 games with Rockford while Welinski was added at the AHL trade deadline.

Finally, Arvid Soderblom was the primary goaltender for Rockford this season, and this was cemented as he started the final seven games. His season started strong, hit a road bump in the middle after spending time with the Blackhawks, went on a surge, and then finished somewhat quietly. His final save percentage was just .905, but that doesn’t really indicate how good Soderblom can be when at his best: he’s an absolute difference maker when “on,” like in the final game against the Admirals when Soderblom posted a .954 save-percentage to help the IceHogs make the playoffs.

With how poor the IceHogs offense was in the latter half of the season, Soderblom is going to need to keep the scoring low to give Rockford a chance at success. He had a .925 save percentage in five postseason games last season.

What’s Next: Facing off against the Iowa Wild

The Iowa Wild are the fourth-seeded team in the Central Division, just edging out the IceHogs for that position. The two teams technically have the same points (79), but Iowa owned the tiebreaker with four more regulation wins. The Wild also had a bit of a rough landing at the end of the season, going 5-3-1-1 in their last 10 after a season-high 14-game point streak between January and February. Like Rockford, Iowa needed to win their last game of the season to secure their playoff spot, which they did in a 5-2 victory over the Texas Stars.

This will be only the second time in the last 10 seasons the Wild have made the AHL playoffs.

For the Wild, they’re one of the few teams that were just as unsuccessful offensively as the IceHogs: they had just a three-goal difference over the course of the season with Rockford having that slight edge. However, the Wild are top-10 in goals against with just 2.93 while the IceHogs are almost the exactly opposite, having the 12th worst goals against rate with 3.22. This is primarily due to the Wild’s ability to suppress their opponent’s shot quality at a better rate than the IceHogs. For example, Iowa kept the Texas Stars to just 21 shots against and only three high-danger chances in the last game of the season to clinch their playoff berth.

While the Wild have a younger forward group than the Blackhawks, they are still led offensive by two vets: Nic Petan has 62 points (23 G, 39 A) in 53 games while Steven Fogarty has 49 (19 G, 30 A) in 65 games. The two have also been hot against the IceHogs, with Fogarty putting up seven goals and adding five assists in his 10 games while Petan had 10 points (3 G, 7 A), including two game-winning goals against Rockford. They’re often paired with 25-year-old Nick Swaney, who produced at a respectable but not overwhelming 0.63 point-per-game rate in 48 games.

The Wild’s prospects take over the lineup a bit after that, starting with their second best producer and top forward prospect, Marco Rossi. He had 51 points (16 G, 35 A) in 53 games, including three goals and 11 points against the IceHogs this season – the most among Iowa players. Rossi is especially adept at royal road passes to set up teammates for one-timers:

Rossi’s most common linemates down the stretch, Sammy Walker (48 points in 56 games) and Adam Beckman (36 points in 53 games), were no slouches either against Rockford: they combined for six goals and six assists in nine games. It’s a young trio that will be out to prove something in the playoffs. Beckman, in particular, is a dangerous mid-range scorer.

Like the IceHogs, though, the Wild’s bottom-six is lacking in any real offensive power. Four-year AHL vet Mike O’Leary is next up with a 0.41 point-per-game rate, but everyone else is 0.3 or worse. However, defensively, they’re strong – especially someone like Damien Giroux on the penalty kill – and they’re going to match up against the IceHogs top lines in key situations to limit chances against.

Unlike the IceHogs, though, the Wild’s blue line consists almost entirely of veterans. They’re led by seven-year AHL vet Joe Hicketts, who was easily the biggest contributor with 48 points (6 G, 42 A) in 72 games while playing in all situations for Iowa. His primary partner, Turner Ottenbreit, is more of a defense-first blue-liner who allows Hicketts the ability to be more loose offensively.

Dakota Mermis and Riese Zmolek (yes, the son of former Blackhawks defenseman Doug Zmolek), who have 10 years in the AHL between them, have been a strong shut-down middle pairing since Iowa acquired Zmolek at the trade deadline. Mermis can also produce: he has a solid 0.41 point-per-game rate this season. The Wild’s only real prospective defensemen are Daemon Hunt and Simon Johansson, though only Hunt really made much of an impression. Hunt moved up and down the pairings, and while he can be sloppy at times, he’s good at defending one-on-one.

In net, the Wild have gone with a rotating duo of rookie Jesper Wallstedt (38 games) and veteran Zane McIntyre (34 games). Wallstedt is likely to get the nod to start because, not only is he the Wild’s likely goaltender of the future, he’s 4-2-1 with a .922 save percentage against Rockford this season while McIntyre has just a .907 save percentage in four games. Wallstedt set a Wild rookie record with 18 wins on the season.

Who will win: Too close to call

During the regular season, the Wild and IceHogs played each other 12 times with Rockford going 5-2-3-2, though Rockford had momentum at the end of the series by winning four of the last five matchups. Almost all of the meetings between the two teams were close – seven of the 12 games required overtime or a shootout. They were low-scoring affairs as well, with nine of the games totaling four goals or fewer between the teams. It wouldn’t be surprising if it’s a close series – at least in the individual games – again.

Neither team is good offensively, but the Wild have the edge in terms of defense. Soderblom has done better with less help than Wallstedt, but the latter is still one of the best goalie prospects in the league. Honestly, it’s hard to pick a winner in this matchup.

Final IceHogs notes: The IceHogs players who have performed the best against the Wild this season are Philp with four goals and three assists, Gust with three goals and four assists, and Jakub Galvas with one goal and six assists – all in 10 games. Reichel was next up with one goal and three assists in nine games. Soderblom started five times against the Wild, going 4-0-1-0 with a .936 save percentage in that span.

Central Division First Round Schedule

• Game 1: Wednesday, April 19 | BMO Harris Bank Center @ 7 p.m.
• Game 2: Friday, April 21 | Wells Fargo Arena @ 7 p.m.
• Game 3: Sunday, April 23 | Wells Fargo Arena @ 3 p.m. (if necessary)

How to tune-in

Live stream: AHL.TV

Live audio: IceHogs Broadcast Network at IceHogs.com and on IceHogs app; Mid-West Family’s local stations including 104.9 The X, B103, 95.3 The Bull, and Rockford Greatest Hits 100.5.