x

Already member? Login first!

Comments / New

That’s What Friends Are For: Blackhawks vs. Jets Preview

A very familiar face is back in Chicago for this evening.

Posted on by L_B_R
Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Blackhawks close out their four-game homestand on Monrday against the Winnipeg Jets, hoping to snap a recent skid and return to the win column.

The Jets’ season has unraveled after a decent start. Winnipeg won seven of its first 10 games but have watched things steadily slide downhill since. The Jets are currently 31st in the league standings, and the underlying numbers explain why: a 48.16 percent shot-attempt share at 5-on-5 (24th in the NHL) and a 46.67 percent expected goals share (28th) point to a team that’s been consistently second-best territorially over the long haul. Whatever early-season structure they had has eroded, leaving a lot of nights spent defending and hoping for bounces. This isn’t entirely new territory, either: the Jets haven’t been a particularly strong statistical team for a while. In past seasons, though, those shortcomings were papered over by elite regular-season goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck. That safety net hasn’t been there this year, with Hellebuyck playing at more of an average level for long stretches and missing a portion of the season with an injury.

Ironically, the Jets show up to Chicago in the middle of one of their better stretches of results. They’ve won four of their last five games and picked up a point in a 4–3 overtime loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. The process, however, still hasn’t followed the results. Winnipeg hasn’t meaningfully improved its underlying play during this run and is instead riding an eye-popping 18.45 percent shooting rate at 5-on-5, a number that almost always comes back to earth. Whether that puck luck holds up a little longer or finally runs out against the Blackhawks will be one of the more interesting storylines heading into this one.

The Jets’ offense is still being driven by a very small group at the top. Mark Scheifele (1.23 points per game), Kyle Connor (1.19), and Gabriel Vilardi (0.94) remain elite producers and are doing most of the heavy lifting, but the drop-off behind them is steep. No other Winnipeg skater is even above a 0.5 points-per-game pace, leaving the Jets overly reliant on that top trio to generate offense on a nightly basis. They do get some offensive lift from the back end via Josh Morrissey (0.83) but, beyond him, the blue line is fairly underwhelming and doesn’t add much in terms of consistent puck-moving or scoring. There are typically solid depth pieces on this roster, but they simply haven’t been contributing much at all this season, which has only magnified the team’s issues.

This game also marks the return of Oh Captain, My Captain Jonathan Toews to the United Center in an opposing jersey, and he comes in playing some of his best hockey of the season. His overall production rate is modest (0.39 points per game), but Toews has six points (five goals, one assist) in his last five games and is currently on pace for just shy of 20 goals. Given the time he’s missed in recent years, that level of scoring is legitimately impressive — and something the Blackhawks will need to be mindful of.

Considering the points-streak the Jets are on currently, it’s not surprising they will be rolling out the same lines and pairing as in their most recent games, with Hellebuyck in net.

The Blackhawks enter this one still searching for some traction, having lost their third straight game and a fourth consecutive contest at the United Center. Their lone win in the last five games came two Saturdays ago, a 3–0 shutout of the Nashville Predators that required an excellent performance from Drew Commesso more than any sort of offensive breakout. Outside of that night, Chicago’s recent play has been largely uninspiring. They’ve been passable defensively for stretches, but a handful of breakdowns keep turning into goals against, and the offense has been so listless that there’s no margin to recover once those mistakes happen. It’s not that the Blackhawks are getting run out of the building — it’s that they’re struggling to generate enough offense to survive even minor errors.

It is worth noting that not all of the recent stretch has been bleak, especially when it comes to the younger players. Connor Bedard continues to generate scoring chances at a high rate, and it feels more like a matter of when, not if, the production finally follows in bunches. Ryan Green recently picked up a goal and has been a well-rounded complement on the top line, while the chemistry between Oliver Moore and Nick Lardis has only continued to grow — they easily could have been rewarded with a goal or three over the last few games. On the back end, Louis Crevier is coming off one of his better performances of the season, Wyatt Kaiser will occasionally bust out a vintage Duncan Keith-style move to remind you why he’s intriguing, Alex Vlasic has been quietly steady, and Artyom Levshunov has flashed legitimate top-end potential while logging heavy minutes, even if a few down games are to be expected from a rookie in that role.

All of that is to say that, while the Blackhawks have slipped back to 30th in the league and haven’t been at their best, there are still real bright spots. If some of the offense starts to catch up to the process, this is a team that could turn things around fairly quickly. It could start tonight against the Jets, even if it may be emotional for some players — and fans — to face off against Toews.

At morning skate, Andre Burakovsky was absent due to illness and a family matter. As a result, he is considered a game-time decision.

With Burakovsky absent, Colton Dach took his place on the top line with Bedard and Greene during line rushes and Sam Lafferty slotted into the fourth line vacancy with the other two lines remaining untouched.

One other small note: although Frank Nazar was a full participant in Monday’s morning skate, he was ruled out for the game against Winnipeg on Sunday by coach Jeff Blashill, and there was no indication that had changed Monday morning. There was some speculation Nazar could be back in game action possibly as early as Thursday’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes.

Tale of the Tape

Blackhawks — Statistic — Jets
46.75% (27th) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 48.16% (24th)
45.12% (30th) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 46.67% (18th)
2.73 (26th) — Goals per game — 3.04 (19th)
3.15 (21st) — Goals against per game — 3.13 (20th)
47.2% (26th) — Faceoffs — 50.8 (11th)
22.1% (12th) — Power play — 19.5% (21st)
84.4% (2nd) — Penalty kill — 78.6% (19th)
(All stats from this season)

How to watch

When: 7:30 p.m. CT
Where: United Center, Chicago
TV: CHSN
Webstream: ESPN+
Radio: WGN 720

LOGIN SIGN UP

Talking Points