The glimpses of Wyatt Kaiser’s NHL potential we saw this season

Wyatt Kaiser’s 2025-26 season was, in a lot of ways, a microcosm of the Chicago Blackhawks season itself: an incredible, promising first half that gradually unraveled into a much rougher second half that finished on a strong note.

Early on, Kaiser played like a legitimate, steady second-pair defenseman. Not regularly flashy, but the occasional move that made you sit up and notice. He didn\'t put up gaudy point totals but drove play in subtle ways and jumped in when needed. Keeping things clean defensively and using his skating to move pucks efficiently up the ice -- it was very in line with the Niklas Hjalmarsson school of playing hockey.

But as the season wore on -- and as the Blackhawks’ structure, confidence, and overall play deteriorated -- there\'s no denying that Kaiser’s game slipped with it. That decline wasn’t entirely self-inflicted nor team-related, though: he did suffer a serious lower-body injury right before the Olympic break, and that almost certainly negatively impacted the last couple of months of play. That injury was initially considered a possible season-ender , and it\'s easy to forget that seriousness since almost all the recuperation happened while the Blackhawks were not playing.

This doesn't look great https://t.co/83esyCY5mZ pic.twitter.com/uDd1jg2EFY

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) February 5, 2026

Coach Jeff Blashill referenced the impact the time off -- especially missing the practices the team had at the end of the Olympic break -- had on Kaiser:

\"I think there’s another level of his game. I thought he was playing so good when he got hurt, on a night-to-night basis. He hasn’t quite got that consistency back to that level. But I expect he will. But it was a heck of a layoff. Including missing some of those important training camp practices we had coming back.\"

The fact that Kaiser had to ramp back up post-injury doesn\'t negate the slower ending for the defenseman, but the injury woes combined with the increasingly difficult usage around him seemed to amplify some issues in his game down the stretch. The fact that he still finished on an upward trend, often being called out by the coach as one of the team\'s best players, shows there is some resilience, too.

All this makes evaluating his season somewhat tricky. If you only look at the final progress, you’re probably underselling what he did early and during the strong finish. But if you lean too heavily on the early-season version and those final few weeks, you’re ignoring the drop-off in the middle. The drop-off is reasonable when you take into consideration the team and injury context, but you still have to factor it in overall.

So let’s split the difference and treat this for what it was: overall positive, but with some bumps along the way.

Here is Kaiser\'s end-of-season player card provided by HockeyStats:

As seen above, his overall WAR along with his even-strength impacts on offense and defense waned to below average. For comparison\'s sake, last season Kaiser ended in the 59th percentile for offensive WAR and 61st percentile for defensive WAR.

Again, this ending doesn\'t take away from how exceptional Kaiser was in the early portions of the season, when he was objectively one of the more effective defensemen on the roster. His offensive and defensive WAR were above the 55th and 75th percentile, respectively, heading into the new year. Not only was that an improvement over the prior season, but legitimately second-pair quality.

Below is his season-long rolling percentile changes:

It\'s easy to see where the fall happened and how steep the drop was. If this were just a story about Kaiser’s first half, we’d be talking about a pretty clean season and a big developmental step forward, but we do have to factor in the latter part of his season. The chart doesn\'t seem to reflect that Kaiser\'s last couple of weeks were still strong, as noted by Blashill in late March:

\"I think he’s played excellent the last little bit. Back to where he was right before the break. He’s done a really good job this year of learning to use his feet to skate himself out of pressure, and then the balance of when to then make the next play and when to just live another day. And I think he’s really learned that well. And if he does that, he’s a real talented guy that can create offense without giving much up.\"

As mentioned above, Kaiser\'s performance is clearly tied closesly to the team context. Yes, his injury seemed to drag him down some, but the first major fall lines up with the Blackhawks\' performance, even before he was hurt. We all saw the Blackhawks hit a wall, particularly in the second half, when the same issues kept popping up like turnovers, failed exits and defensive breakdowns. When the structure around a player degrades, it’s going to impact their numbers.

For the team to succeed, the Blackhawks will still need Kaiser (and other defensemen) to rise above those team-wide issues and become a steadying force himself. He\'s shown potential to do that, especially last season and even at the end of this one, but he\'ll need to do so consistently, and this is especially important for a team like the Blackhawks going through growing pains.

Now, let\'s look under the hood a bit:

Kaiser is not, and likely never will be, labeled an offensive defenseman. He finished with 17 points (6 G, 11 A) in 77 games, which isn\'t anything special. That’s not his game, and it doesn’t need to be, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t contribute offensively in key ways that didn\'t show up on the scoresheet.

His finished shot contribution finished in the 66th percentile, which is quite respectable for a player in his role. As a distributor, Kaiser didn\'t facilitate much in the offensive zone in terms of passes setting up teammates (in-zone offense was just 48th percentile). Some of this is, of course, due to the Blackhawks generally being a poor cycling team who didn\'t spend that much time in the offensive zone. Kaiser himself has shown hints at being able to walk the blue line well when needed, but there just wasn\'t much of an opportunity for him to do this regularly.

Here are two examples of when Kaiser was able to connect well in the offensive zone and his ability to fluidly move along the blue line for passing looks:

Kaiser feeds Dickinson who shoots off the post pic.twitter.com/aStzCJCpk9

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 24, 2026

Wyatt Kaiser not getting a power play look continues to be a huge missed opportunity. There's very few players that can walk the line like this — he'd be a perfect PP QB: pic.twitter.com/iFR69ShCmf

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) March 30, 2026

However, it\'s interesting to note that Kaiser was in the 76th percentile in passing from outside the offensive zone, thanks to how effective he was in shot creation via transition (62nd percentile for defensive-zone shot assists and 79th percentile from the neutral zone). In other words, while Kaiser wasn\'t connecting in-zone to good effect, he was was great at moving the puck out and in helping turn those exits/entries into actual offensive opportunities.

Since the Blackhawks were more prone to chances off transition plays, Kaiser also saw his primary scoring chance assists rate being quite high, ranking in the 90th percentile. That’s legitimately excellent, and suggests he was creating high-quality looks for teammates at a strong rate (at least for transition). The problem is those chances didn’t convert: his actual assist rate was down in the 20th percentile, which is about as clear a case of the results not being entirely on him as you’ll find. The Blackhawks’ offense was -- let\'s be very blunt -- terrible this season, as the finishing talent wasn’t there consistently. That disconnect drags down his overall chance contribution (34th percentile), even though the underlying play-driving elements were more encouraging, like his rush offense contribution sitting slightly above average (53rd percentile). So, you end up with a weird statistical transition passing profile for Kaiser: a strong process but with weak results in terms of offense.

Here\'s a Kaiser pass that set up a breakaway chance:

Great heads up play by Wyatt Kaiser to give Slaggert a chance at a breakaway pic.twitter.com/4kPEwmWOqj

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 8, 2026

Speaking of transition performance, Kaiser\'s prowess in this regard showed up in other stats as well. He led the team in zone-entry rate and ranked in the 82nd percentile league-wide, which is a strong indicator of how often he was able to help push play forward. What’s notable here is how he did it: not by trying to be a one-man breakout machine, but by making smart, quick decisions with the puck. Again, this was primarily through distribution rather than carrying the puck himself -- his entry possession rate sat at just the 30th percentile. That latter part is not really a concern, considering controlled entries are typically driven by forwards, and Kaiser’s role leaned more toward facilitating those sequences than leading them.

In the clip below, Kaiser forces a turnover before skating into the zone for his own chance:

Kaiser with a steal then a move to wheel in and get a backhander on net pic.twitter.com/mYh705A1ca

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 28, 2026

That same approach carried over to his zone exits, where Kaiser was again strong. He landed in the 75th percentile overall, driven by an excellent 93rd percentile rate on carry exits and a solid 69th percentile on pass exits. Interestingly, he showed more willingness to carry the puck out of the defensive zone than into the offensive zone, which fits his strengths as a player who uses his skating to escape pressure and create cleaner breakouts. The combination of those two skills made him one of the more reliable breakout options on the roster, especially early in the season, when things were functioning at least semi-coherently.

A few samples of zone exits via pass:

Slick move by Kaiser to create a clean breakout pic.twitter.com/ItJOUIXf2m

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 16, 2026

Kaiser shakes Carrier with a sharp turn and works a clean dump-in pic.twitter.com/NPvcLQOnJK

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 23, 2026

And one via Kaiser\'s own skates:

Kaiser works a clean breakout through heavy pressure: pic.twitter.com/AldiVvJsEG

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 23, 2026

It wasn’t just about getting the puck moving, Kaiser was also doing the work required to get the puck in the first place. He was ranked in the 92nd percentile in retrievals, which is a big deal for a team that spent as much time defending as the Blackhawks did. His skating allowed him to close quickly on loose pucks, and his positioning and stickwork helped him win those races cleanly. Even better, his ability to turn those retrievals into exits was above average (69th percentile). For a team that spent a lot of time defending, that ability to end plays and transition quickly was valuable.

Here\'s an example of a Kaiser puck retrieval:

This puck hit off Kaiser's stick then face but he still recovered to work a clean breakout pic.twitter.com/IwjYlMQ5G7

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 11, 2026

And here he uses his skating to evade forecheckers and keep possession for a clear exit opportunity:

Kaiser uses his skating to lose a forechecker pic.twitter.com/iQxtm25UR5

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 10, 2026

That said, Kaiser\'s transition game was somewhat more flawed in the back half. There were some noticeable breakdowns -- botched exits, mis-timed decisions -- and his exits with possession were inconsistent in terms of volume. As the season progressed, he became more conservative, opting for safer plays rather than pushing the pace. While it\'s understandable that young players often default to risk-avoidance when confidence in the team\'s performance drops, it also limited what made Kaiser effective in the first place. That shift is part of why his high-level WAR numbers slipped and ultimately plateaued late in the season, even if the individual micro stats remained encouraging.

Here\'s a Kaiser turnover that ended up in the Chicago net:

Draisaitl adds another off a Kaiser turnover pic.twitter.com/PRBugUOULf

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 13, 2026

Still, for a defenseman not tasked with being an offensive driver, Kaiser played an effective part in trying to facilitate offense and support that offensive game, even if final results were mostly average.

Like most young defensemen, Kaiser’s performance was also influenced by who he played with. Below were the high level shot share results with his four most common partners:

Partner TOI CF% GF% xGF% OZFoS% Levshunov 430:55 45.57 25.00 (10-30) 41.71 60.42 Rinzel 374:54 45.02 54.29 (19-16) 45.32 59.28 Crevier 228:16 38.79 50.00 (9-9) 33.09 28.46 Murphy 219:46 52.00 46.67 (7-8) 49.15 38.14

It\'s pretty clear that Kaiser\'s worst results were with Artyom Levshunov. The two were paired a lot initially and sheltered in some ways to ease the rookie into his first NHL season. When their playing time and assignments increased in toughness, though, their results together tanked. They ended up with the worst goal share among consistent partners in the league. It\'s not hard to see why either: with Levshunov, there were likely more situations when Kaiser had to compensate, which can lead to breakdowns or more conservative decision-making as the season progresses. The tools are obvious for Levshunov, but the structure isn’t there yet, and that can lead to more chaos in the defensive zone. So, for Kaiser, who thrives in structured, read-and-react situations, that difference matters and can be draining as the season progressed. This isn\'t meaning to throw Levshunov under the bus because Kaiser made his own mistakes at times, but the babysitting duty did impact Kaiser.

Kaiser also spent a lot of time with fellow rookie defenseman Sam Rinzel, and the underlying numbers between the two weren’t all that different from Kaiser’s pairing with Levshunov, outside of the goals share, which finished on the positive side. This was mainly because the Kaiser-Rinzel pairing generally were more controlled and structured, with both defensemen doing a better job moving play out of danger quickly rather than getting trapped defending extended chaos in-zone. It’s also important to note that much of this time together occurred when Rinzel returned from his AHL stint, after which he looked noticeably calmer and more composed defensively. Kaiser’s game had also become a bit more conservative by that point in the season, so together the pair was generally less prone to high-risk mistakes that can quickly tank a pairing’s results. That likely played a role in helping keep their goals share above water even if some of the underlying possession and expected goals numbers were less impressive.

Kaiser had his worst shot share numbers when paired with Crevier, but they managed to keep the goal share even. They also had the toughest deployment: they were used in a more traditional shutdown role with deep defensive deployment against the highest quality of competition. It\'s possible the two could have fared better if not thrown in the deep end, where we know Crevier has not faired well with any partner while Kaiser has, but that\'s a hypothetical. However, Kaiser has so much more to his game -- play-driving, transition work -- that just didn\'t work with Crevier in that particular high-stakes situation. But it did with another player: Connor Murphy.

Murphy was the final partner Kaiser worked alongside consistently, and it’s not particularly surprising that this pairing produced the steadiest overall results. The two basically leaned into their defense-first mentality and kept things extremely low-event. Like with Crevier, Kaiser and Murphy were largely deployed in a shutdown role, but the dynamic was very different, because Murphy brought a level of structure, predictability, and defensive awareness that allowed Kaiser to play even more naturally to his strengths. Murphy’s calmer decision-making and positioning helped clean up plays early in the defensive zone, which in turn let Kaiser focus more on retrievals, exits, and transition play instead of constantly having to compensate for breakdowns around him.

Kaiser was also able to compensate for Murphy\'s lack of foot speed when needed, but Murphy was generally in better positions than other Chicago defensemen who are not particularly swift-footed (Crevier). It created a more balanced pairing, where both players could stay within roles that suited them, rather than Kaiser needing to overextend himself trying to stabilize everything at once.

Kaiser recovers to negate a scoring chance pic.twitter.com/Qh1MHk37hB

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 4, 2026

Ultimately, what does this all mean for Kaiser?

There’s a clear version of Kaiser that looks like a reliable second-pair defenseman, someone who can drive transition, support breakouts, and contribute to offense in subtle ways. That player showed up for a good chunk of this season. If Kaiser can maintain the early-season form when he was confident in transition, assertive with his skating, and sharp in his reads, there’s a clear path to being a steady second-pair piece. And the encouraging part is that most of the issues that cropped up are fixable, and he looked to be on his way to rising above them at the very end anyway. The skating isn’t going anywhere, the decision-making is generally sound, and the blue-line defense will improve with experience and adjustments. Staying healthy will also be key, but that\'s true of all players.

The bottom line is that, while this wasn’t necessarily a true breakout season for Kaiser, it did something almost as valuable: it reinforced that he’s a legitimate NHL defenseman with real top-four upside. At his best, Kaiser looked like a modern, transition-driven defenseman who can tilt the ice in quieter ways. That version of him isn’t theoretical anymore -- we saw it for a meaningful stretch. The late-season dip doesn’t erase that, it just highlights where the growth still needs to happen. And that next step is pretty straightforward: consistency. Not in the sense of being perfect every night, but in maintaining that assertive, confident style over a full season, even when the team around him isn’t exactly making life easy. That’s the difference between a useful piece and a reliable one.

And for where the Blackhawks are right now, that’s exactly the kind of player you want to find and keep.

Two years ago, I thought Wyat Kaiser was going to be the Blackhawks breakout young defenseman after seeing him at the prospect tournament.

Two years later, he's finally playing how he looked then.

My story on what's changed ⤵️ https://t.co/fpuAGVLs83

— Scott Powers (@ByScottPowers) March 23, 2025

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