It’s been hard to shake the notion that the opening 20 games or so of this approaching season are going to carry a heavier weight than just about any chunk of Blackhawks games from this decade.
Probably not in terms of the overall success or failure of The Plan™ — a 20-game sample is too small to paint that big of a picture — but more about the perception of which of those two outcomes it’s moving towards.
The Bowen Byram trade feels like the watershed moment here. Not that the rebuild portion is over just yet, given the still-youthful ages of so many important cogs being placed into this machine. But professional sports teams also can’t trade away a No. 4 overall pick for a prime-aged defenseman and then sign that player to the richest AAV in franchise history without making a northward move in the standings after three straight seasons of finishing 31st in a 32-team league. At least, not if the front office members value their employment status.
At this the moment, the closest thing we have to a projection of what this team is going to look like at the start of the upcoming season is what it looked like at the end of last season, which was something we discussed back in April. That kid-heavy team put up significantly worse numbers in just about every metric out there during its 20-game sample than the team that played a full 82 and finished 31st in the league last season:
| 2025-26 Hawks | All 82 Games | Rank | Games 63-82 | Rank |
| CF% | 45.60 | 30th | 43.10 | 31st |
| SF% | 44.38 | Last | 42.37 | 31st |
| SCF% | 43.29 | Last | 39.13 | Last |
| HDCF% | 40.35 | Last | 35.78 | Last |
| GF% | 43.27 | 30th | 40.43 | 30th |
| xGF% | 42.25 | Last | 37.47 | Last |
| SH% | 9.56 | 17th | 9.77 | 17th |
| SV% | .900 | 23rd | .894 | 19th |
While the team that takes the ice to open next season will have the aforementioned Byram and Roman Kantserov, it will also not have Connor Bedard, which feels like a wash, at best, if not a move to the negative — and Oliver Moore’s healthy return isn’t going to heavily tip the scales to the positive, either.
Again, it’s the perception that we’re discussing here, because that Byram trade changed the equation. And if there’s a similar perception from those inside the United Center at the start of the upcoming season as there was towards the end of the prior one, that’s going to be a problem.
Remember that penultimate regular season game against Buffalo?
Extremely sloppy by the Hawks, didn't even create a single quality chance, and they're getting booed
— Ben Pope (@BenPopeCST) April 14, 2026
FINAL: Sabres 5, Blackhawks 1
— Ben Pope (@BenPopeCST) April 14, 2026
Simply put, the Hawks did not show any signs of giving a shit throughout the second or third periods.
Or how about the start of the season finale against San Jose, within an hour after an extension to Kyle Davidson was announced?
A massive eruption from the UC crowd as Mikheyev gets the Hawks' first shot on goal 16 minutes into the first period. Biggest one of the night!
— Second City Hockey (@secondcityhockey.bsky.social) April 15, 2026 at 8:04 PM
There were already some emerging signs that the losses were piling too high, that the one-sided hockey on the ice was becoming less and less palatable for those watching it consistently. What happens if the Hawks are similarly outmatched on the ice to open the next season despite that big offseason splash? What happens if there’s a continued lack of on-ice evidence that the kids are progressing? Those questions are asked rhetorically, but anyone who’s watched pro sports long enough knows the answer there.
It all comes back to The Plan™, doesn’t it? The Hawks have been steadfast in their commitment to it, with recent evidence of it being Davidson’s assertion that Kansterov can be the top-six running mate Bedard still hasn’t had in his NHL career. It’s not hard to find corners of the internet where The Plan™ and Chicago’s unwillingness to stray from remain worthy of commendation. But there’s still precious little evidence to suggest that The Plan™ is a prudent one and that those responsible for implementing it are competent enough to do so. And the more skeptical corners of the internet — Hi there! — will continue waiting for proof of that.
Maybe it’s coming this fall. Maybe the boatload of picks and prospects this team has acquired over the last four years will finally take those steps forward on the ice that we’ve been desperately waiting to see. Maybe that big offseason trade will bolster the blue line enough to account for Bedard’s absence in the first few months so that he returns to a team that isn’t already drowning in the standings.
If they don’t, though, the perception that could become reality is not one that’s going to think highly of The Plan™.
And if taking it from some random internet moron doesn’t work, take it from Bedard himself in this clip below from the Blackhawks’ end-of-season media sessions back in April, because these four seconds probably summarize it better than any more words will: