x

Already member? Login first!

Comments / New

What recent NHL history says about the Blackhawks’ options with the No. 4 pick

Should the Hawks move that pick for some established NHL talent? Let history be the guide.

Posted on by L_B_R
Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The worst-case scenario happened for the Blackhawks in the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery: they fell back two spots and now hold the No. 4 overall pick. That’s still a valuable asset and the Blackhawks will land a very good player, but the slide likely takes them out of the range where they could realistically expect immediate NHL help next season from their selected player.

Only Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg feel likely to step directly into the NHL next season and move the needle in a meaningful way. Unless something bizarre happens in the top three, neither is making it to fourth overall.

That creates a dilemma for the Blackhawks: what do they do with the No. 4 pick? The organization is entering Year Whatever of the rebuild, when patience is still the correct answer. But the NHL roster is also thin in certain areas and clearly needs legitimate help, especially for Connor Bedard. Naturally, there’s already speculation about whether Davidson should explore trading the No. 4 pick for an established NHL player — or perhaps multiple players — who can help immediately.

Now, let’s be clear: the Blackhawks absolutely should listen if teams call. Ignoring possibilities entirely would be dumb. Before people start throwing together fantasy trades involving the No. 4 overall pick for every vaguely available top-six forward, though, it’s a good time to review how often top-five picks have been traded and if those trades were successful.

Spoiler: the answers are “rare” and “not particularly”, which Davidson seems to be aware of:

First, it’s important to note that trades involving a top-five pick are incredible rare and have not been made straight up for an established player in decades. And 25-30 years is where I’m cutting off my research because it’s irrelevant to be that far removed from the salary cap era. There are, however, more instances of top-10 picks being moved for immediate, established veteran help. (Please note key words being “established” and “veteran”.)

1999: Bryan McCabe and a 2000 first-round pick from Vancouver to Chicago for the No. 4 overall pick

This was a notoriously terrible trade for the Blackhawks at the time, but the trade tree did bear fruit eventually in the form of Niklas Hjalmarsson.

McCabe was with Chicago only a single season before being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs a year later for Alexander Karpovtsev (who was a good defenseman but they did nothing in his four seasons) and a 2001 fourth-round pick (selected a player who never came to the NHL). However, Karpovtsev was eventually traded to the New York Islanders for a 2005 fourth-round pick that would be use to nab Hjalmarsson.

The 2000 first-round pick became Pavel Vorobiev, who played less than 60 games in the NHL and accused Chicago of discrimination against Russians on his way back to the KHL.

This ended up working out for the Blackhawks because they got one of their core defensemen for the 2010-2015 success years, but it did take 11 year to bear that fruit.

2001: Alexei Yashin from New York to Ottawa for No. 3 overall pick, Zdeno Chara, and Bill Muckalt

This trade became an outright disaster for the Islanders. Alexei Yashin was still a very good player at the time, but he never came close to justifying the massive return or the enormous long-term contract the Islanders immediately gave him. New York made the playoffs a few times with Yashin, but never became a true contender and eventually bought out the remainder of his deal.

Meanwhile, the Ottawa Senators did decently in this trade, even if it did not result in winning a Stanley Cup. The third overall pick became Jason Spezza, who turned into a franchise center and one of the best offensive players in team history, and one of 425 players to reach 1,000 NHL games.

Zdeno Chara likewise was a meaningful member of the team; however his time with the organization was for only four years before he walked in free agency in 2006. It was during his time with the Boston Bruins he became a Hall of Fame defenseman and one of the best blueliners of his generation.

2010: Bobby Ryan from Anaheim to Ottawa for No. 10 overall pick, Jakob Silfverberg, and Stefan Noesen

Ryan had a couple of productive seasons with Ottawa and was part of the team’s 2017 Eastern Conference Final run, but he also struggled with injuries and never consistently became the star-level forward the Senators hoped they were acquiring.

For Anaheim, they did one long-term asset in the deal as Silfverberg became a reliable middle-six winger for more than a decade in Anaheim and eventually retired at Duck in 2024. The other pieces were less successful. Noesen spent more time in the AHL when with the organization before he was claimed off waivers by the New Jersey Devils in 2017. The 10th overall pick became Nick Ritchie, who had an okay NHL career but never fully broke out, and he was moved after five-years to the Boston Bruins in exchange for Danton Heinen at the 2020 trade deadline. Heinen walked in free agency in 2021.

2010: Phil Kessel from Boston to Toronto for a No. 2 overall pick, a 2010 second-round pick (Jared Knight) and a 2011 first-round pick.

This one is a little different from the others already mentioned because Toronto had no idea they were ultimately giving up the No. 2 overall pick when they made the original trade at the start of the season.

The Leafs acquired Kessel hoping he could jumpstart the franchise offensively, and while Kessel individually produced well, the Leafs remained bad enough that the surrendered pick became the second overall selection in 2010. Toronto eventually made the playoffs only once during Kessel’s initial tenure before later trading him away in 2015. That blockbuster deal netted the Leafs some players and picks that really didn’t do much with the team while Kessel won back-to-back Stanley Cups with Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, the Bruins turned the package into Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton, two elite young assets at the time. Even though Seguin was traded in 2013 because Boston was reportedly displeased with his supposed hard-partying lifestyle, he still did help them win the Cup in 2011. The 2011 first-round pick was used to pick Hamilton, and while he was eventually traded in 2018, his trade tree is still ongoing.

2011: Jeff Carter from Philadelphia to Columbus for the No. 8 overall pick, Jakub Voracek and a third-round pick

This one very obviously did not work out for the Columbus Blue Jackets. Carter never really wanted to be there, struggled through an underwhelming partial season, and was dealt to the Los Angeles Kings by the trade deadline. The return from Los Angeles ended up firmly in the meh category too: Jack Johnson and a conditional first-round pick that became Marko Dano — Chicago fans should remember that name — who never developed into an NHL player.

Meanwhile, the trade didn’t really turn into major team success for the Philadelphia Flyers, either, though they did getting a ton of long-term value out of the original deal. Voracek spent 15 seasons with the organization and was a consistently productive top-line winger for much of that stretch, while the eighth overall pick became Sean Couturier, who is still part of their current playoff team.

2012: Jordan Staal from Pittsburgh to Carolina for No. 8 overall pick, Brian Dumoulin and Brandon Sutter

The Pittsburgh Penguins did extremely well with the return package, though not necessarily right away or due to the top pick received. While the eighth overall pick became Derrick Pouliot, who definitely didn’t pan out as hoped, Dumoulin became a major success story as he developed into a reliable top-four defenseman and longtime partner for Kris Letang, playing huge minutes on the Penguins teams that won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017.

Additionally, Pittsburgh didn’t do that well with Sutter in the lineup, but his trade tree secured two major players for the Cup teams: Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin. First Sutter was flipped to the Vancouver Canucks summer of 2015 in exchange for Nick Bonino, Adam Clendening and a 2016 second-round pick, and then Clendening was subsequently traded that same season to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Carl Haglien. It took four seasons, but the Penguins got three big players that helped them win Cups.

As for the Carolina Hurricanes, it’s not like the trade was bad, but it hasn’t yet amounted to an NHL team’s main goal and it’s been 14 years. To be fair, Jordan has captained teams that made multiple deep playoff runs and remained a core piece of Carolina’s contender window for over a decade. Still, despite being a regular playoff team, the Hurricanes have yet to reach the pinnacle.

2013: Cory Schneider from Vancouver to New Jersey for the No. 9 overall pick

The Devils paid heavily for a goalie they believed could stabilize the position long-term. It initially looked like a win, too: Schneider quickly became one of the better goalies in the league, putting up strong performances in those first three seasons. Unfortunately for New Jersey, those teams were never good enough to capitalize on Schneider’s prime and injuries eventually derailed the back half of his career to the point he was placed on unconditional waivers in 2020 for the purpose of buying out the remaining two years of his contract with the club.

The Vancouver Canucks used the No. 9 pick on Bo Horvat, who developed into a long-time captain and one of the organization’s most important players during its transition years after the Sedin era. Vancouver eventually traded Horvat in 2023 for for Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty and a conditional first-round pick in 2023 — the latter of which was then traded to the Detroit Red Wings for Filip Hronek and a 2023 fourth-round pick. Hronek and Raty are still with Vancouver, which is something, I guess, while Beauvillier was flipped to the Blackhawks for a fifth.

Somewhat of a wash for both team, honestly, but the Devils certainly didn’t do much with the acquired established player.

2017: Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta from New York to Arizona for the No. 7 overall pick and Tony DeAngelo

The Arizona Coyotes immediately regretted parts of this one, though it is still playing out today for them — well, the Utah Mammoth — today. Stepan was a decent veteran center for a few seasons but never became a major impact player and was traded three seasons later for a 2021 second-round pick. Additionally, Raanta was good, but struggled to stay healthy for long stretches, and he eventually walked for nothing in free agency four years later. The pick in the Stepan trade became Josh Doan, who has turned into an excellent middle-six player at 24, but not for the Mammoth: he was traded for JJ Peterka, another good young middle-six player.

So the Arizona/Utah franchise still has one good player out of this whole deal and, while they did make the playoffs this year and looking decent going forward, it’s still been nine years since this all went down. Just shows how difficult it is to get immediate impact help that leads to contender/Cup success quickly, even when offering up a high pick.

To be fair, the trade didn’t really work out for the New York Rangers either: they picked Lias Andersson with the No. 7 overall pick, who was a bust and is back in Europe now. DeAngelo was bought out in 2021 due to his off-ice behavioral issues.

2019: Matt Duchene from Colorado to Ottawa for the No. 4 overall pick and Kyle Turris, Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond, and a 2019 third-round pick

Another trade where the team didn’t know they were giving up such a high pick. The pick was top-10 protected in 2018, and when Ottawa’s selection landed inside that range, the Senators chose to defer the obligation to 2019 — which eventually turned into the fourth overall pick.

Ottawa tried to swing for the fences a few times over the years, and this was one of the bigger misses. Duchene was productive offensively, but Ottawa quickly collapsed after its 2017 Eastern Conference Final run and Duchene was traded in 2019 before the team became competitive again. The Senators were able to get a package for him at that time of two prospects (neither did anything of merit in the NHL), and conditional first-round draft picks in 2019 (20th overall, Lassi Thomson whose played 11 games at 25 in the NHL this season) and 2020 (was traded away for other lower picks).

The fall from grace by the Senators made the conditional first-round pick the most valuable piece in the trade. Colorado used it on Bowen Byram, a key part of their 2022 Stanley Cup team before later being traded for Casey Mittelstadt. Even outside the pick, Colorado still gained additional assets while moving on from a player who wanted out.

The Senators effectively gave up a premium top-five pick for a short-lived attempt to keep a contender window open that fizzled out quickly while Colorado got quite lucky.

2021: Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland from Arizona to Vancouver for the No. 9 overall pick and a slew of one-year bad contracts (Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, and Antoine Roussel)

This trade mostly exists as a monument to the dangers of trying to force competitiveness too quickly. It was a disaster for the Canucks almost immediately, as Ekman-Larsson declined soon after arriving in Vancouver and his contract became such a burden that they eventually bought him out in 2023, eating massive dead cap penalties for four years. Garland has been a useful player, but nowhere near enough to justify the overall cost of the trade. He was traded away at this year’s deadline to Columbus in exchange for a 2026 third-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick. This was all fairly predictable at the time, too:

Meanwhile, the Coyotes weaponized their cap space and turned an aging contract into a premium draft pick while also shedding long-term money. The No. 9 overall pick became Dylan Guenther, who already looks like a foundational scorer for the Mammoth franchise moving forward. All three of Beagle, Eriksson, and Roussel exited the NHL after the 2021-22 season, so they were off the books quickly.

Arizona pretty clearly won the trade long-term and Vancouver missed out on an excellent forward player in Guenther.

2022: Seth Jones, a 2021-first round pick and a 2022 sixth-round pick from Columbus to Chicago for the No. 6 overall pick, a 2021 first-round pick, a 2021 second-round pick and Adam Boqvist

Like the Colorado trade above, when the Blackhawks made the trade in 2021, they didn’t know they were giving up the No. 6 overall pick in 2022.

Obviously, Blackhawks fans know this trade well, and it’s another whose trade tree is ongoing, although the initial years after were some of the most frustrating for the organization. As we all remember, former Blackhawks Stan Bowman decided to go all-in after a single season of supposed rebuilding, and thus acquired Jones, hoping he could serve as a top-pair cornerstone. However, this failed spectacularly. Jones played huge minutes and was absolutely better than the public narrative around him suggested at times, but the timing never really made sense and the roster around him quickly collapsed into a full tear-down as part of the still-ongoing rebuild.

The massive long-term contract became an awkward fit once the Blackhawks pivoted directions, though current GM Davidson was able to move Jones (retaining some cap) to get a valuable asset back in Spencer Knight, so it’s still got a promising outcome. But that doesn’t erase the gross couple of years after the initial trade.

For the Blue Jackets, Boqvist never fully broke through there either, but Columbus still came away with a lot of draft capital assets while avoiding Jones’ contract demands. The 2021 first-round pick became Cole Sillinger (No. 12 overall) while the 2022 No. 6 overall pick became David Jiricek. Sillinger has settled in as a useful NHL forward, though probably not the high-end offensive player some hoped for after his rookie season. Jiricek, meanwhile, showed flashes of top-four upside but was eventually traded in 2024 to the Minnesota Wild for Daemon Hunt (ironically claimed off waivers by the Wild in 2025), a 2025 first-round pick (20th, selected goalie Pyotr Andreyanov), third and fourth round picks in the 2026, and a 2027 second-round pick.

So, the initial trade was quite harmful to the Blackhawks rebuild plans and pushed them back a lot, but there may be light at the end of the tunnel thanks to Knight, who jumped to second in SCH’s Top 25 Under 25 list this season. The trade hasn’t really moved the needle much for the Blue Jackets yet, having missed the playoffs every year since, but they were competitive this year and their rebuild is in a better place now than if they’d held on to Jones.

2025-26 Midseason Blackhawks Top 25 Under 25 rankings: The complete list

2022: Alex DeBrincat from Chicago to Ottawa for the No. 7 overall pick in 2022, a 2022 second-round pick, and a 2024 third-round pick

Another familar trade to Blackhawks fans, and one that’s still also open-ended for them — but it definitively did not work out as intended for the Senators.

DeBrincat was productive offensively, but not quite at the elite level expected after giving up the No. 7 overall pick and additional assets. More importantly, he was never fully committed long-term to Ottawa and was traded after just one season. The return was Dominik Kubalík (back in Europe now), prospect Donovan Sebrango (claimed by the Panthers off waivers in October 2025), a conditional 2024 first-round draft pick (sent to the Boston Bruins for Linus Ullmark) and a 2024 fourth-round selection (some dude). So down the trade tree, the No. 7 overall pick has basically become Ullmark for the Senators. He’s a good veteran netminder, but he’s not the franchise star forward the Senators were hoping for when trading for DeBrincat.

The Blackhawks, of course, used the No. 7 overall pick on Kevin Korchinski, who still remains more of a project than a realized product, but at least gives the organization a young defenseman. Chicago also gained additional draft capital during the early stages of the rebuild, which fit their timeline better than paying DeBrincat through his prime years.

It was irksome that the Blackhawks were ever in the position of needing to move DeBrincat at all, since it may never have happened if Bowman doesn’t do the half thoughtout, all-in season. But at a minimum, the Blackhawks came away with more long-term flexibility while Ottawa essentially rented a forward for one season.

And that’s the end of the list. Not particularly inspiring, right?

[UPDATE, 2 p.m.] Given the historical precedent detailed above, let’s see if there’s a trade available right now for an established player who’d be worth the risk despite the trend of things not going well for the teams trading a top pick for established veteran talent. Here are some of the bigger names on most trade boards:

Jason Robertson

This is one of only a couple of names on this list that doesn’t feel like a reach, but NHL insiders like Elliott Friedman think a deal between him and the Dallas Stars is going to get done.

Brady Tkachuk

Another player that is possibly worth the No. 4 pick but the Senators don’t seem to actually be looking to move him and he doesn’t seem to want to go anywhere else (which he controls with a full no-movement clause).

Robert Thomas

This one has had more smoke than others on this list, but the Blues’ play at the end of the season reportedly changed things for the team and player, and GM Doug Armstrong has said that earlier reports were “a bit of a fabrication.” Thomas is another player with a full NMC.

Jordan Kyrou

Trade rumors have centered around Kyrou since the last offseason, but these are still mostly speculation by journalists rather than confirmation of him being on the block. Even if Kyrou is available, the 28-year-old winger is coming off of his lowest production (44 points in 72 games) and just underwent knee surgery, so the risk and timing seems off for the Blackhawks.

Nico Hischier

Another situation where it’s journalists near to the team that opened the discussion on trading the Devils captain and that talk was further amplified by Hischier supposedly being noncommittal about re-signing. However, Hischier’s comments were made last month when New Jersey didn’t have a GM, which they do now. And that new GM, Sunny Mehta, has already started the extension discussions.

Vincent Trocheck

His name is one of the only being openly shopped around, but let’s shut this down now because Trocheck turns 33 in July and does not fit with the young Blackhawks team’s trajectory.

Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and Jake DeBrusk

Going to lump these guys together because the Canucks may want to move out more veterans as they go through their own rebuilding process. However, Pettersson doesn’t want to go anywhere, Boeser seems excited about the rebuild — both also have NMCs this season — and DeBrusk obviously isn’t worth the No. 4 overall pick.

Matthew Knies

The player the Blackhawks are most often linked to, but another where the the Leafs were more listening and hoping to be blown away rather than actively shopping him. Also, Toronto winning the draft lottery will definitely changes that team’s whole strategy, and it feels even less likely that Knies is moved.

Auston Matthews

Another narrative mostly based on some people thinking he would be a good target for other teams, not necessarily that Toronto was willing to part with him — at least not yet, anyway. Again, the draft lottery changes things for the Leafs, so we’ll have to see how that impacts Matthew. It’s also important to note that he has a full-NMC for two more seasons.

It certainly seems like most of the players who would be a meaningful addition to the Blackhawks roster either aren’t getting moved, don’t fit the team’s timeline, or wouldn’t waive a no-movement clause to join a rebuilding roster in the first place. At this point in the offseason calendar, there’s not much else to talk about beyond Armchair GM trade fantasies — which is, admittedly, part of the fun during this time of the year for fans of non-playoff teams. But when you actually start looking through realistic options, there’s little out there that cleanly or obviously makes sense for the Blackhawks right now — and history still suggests it’s not worth it, anyway.

Historically speaking, teams trading away premium draft picks for immediate help usually don’t get the transformational boost they envisioned. In several cases, the team either remained mediocre, ended up rebuilding shortly afterward, or haven’t yet seen the hoped-for results, even several years removed from the trade.

Later on, we’ll look at what the recent past can tell us about other options available to the Hawks with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.

LOGIN SIGN UP

Talking Points