Blackhawks vs. Lightning, 2015 Stanley Cup Final: Preview, predictions, game info, more

The 2015 Stanley Cup Final is here as the Chicago Blackhawks and Tampa Bay Lightning meet for their first ever playoff series. It’s a matchup between two fantastic teams that play similar styles, and if the Hawks want to win their third Stanley Cup since 2010, they’ll have to show that, once again, nobody can beat them at their own game.

The Lightning seem to have learned a lot from the Blackhawks over the years, emphasizing possession and fast-paced, coordinated hockey, and they’re one of the few teams with the forward talent to go blow-to-blow with Chicago. Star power is in abundance with Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman and others, and the Lightning don’t get bogged down trying to play the hitting game like we saw with Anaheim.

So this matchup is a pretty strong contrast from the Western Conference Final, where the Ducks tried to beat the Hawks into submission, and there might be some pretty high-scoring games. Both goaltenders will undoubtedly be tested.

With Game 1 of the series set to begin Wednesday night at Amalie Arena in Tampa, here’s everything you need to know for the 2015 Stanley Cup Final.

Position breakdown

Forwards

When it comes to high-level talent, the top two lines on both teams are straight up stacked. The Hawks boast Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Brandon Saad, while the Lightning can roll out Stamkos, Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, Valtteri Filppula and Ondrej Palat. How the coaches match lines to try to stop these offensive playmakers remains to be seen.

Line matching could be where Joel Quenneville and the Hawks find their advantage, however, given the team’s superior depth. Tampa Bay can definitely keep up with Chicago up top, but yet again, the Blackhawks’ third and fourth lines will be an advantage in this series. The Lightning don’t have anything resembling the firepower of Patrick Sharp, Antoine Vermette and Teuvo Teravainen on the third line, and it’s possible we see the Marcus Kruger–Andrew Shaw–Andrew Desjardins line take on the top guys at times with their defensive acumen.

The Lightning rely heavily on their top six, and it’s largely up to those guys to drive the offense and get the team scoring. They’ve been good enough that it’s worked so far, but they haven’t faced a team with the skill and depth of the Hawks’ forward corps.

Defensemen

If we’re done talking about whether or not Duncan Keith can handle a bajillion minutes (he can), then the Blackhawks’ defense seems to have settled in after a few scary games in the West Final. David Rundblad and Kyle Cumiskey helped calm things down over the past two games, and now the team doesn’t feel like quite an adventure on that end.

The Lightning can match Chicago with an impressive top line of Hedman and Anton Stralman, but like the Blackhawks, there are concerns beyond the top guys. The team’s other four defensemen are Jason Garrison, Andrej Sustr, Matt Carle and Braydon Coburn, a group that presumably has the Blackhawks’ scorers licking their chops.

Now, the same can probably be said of Rundblad and Cumiskey, but Quenneville does a good job of mixing and matching his guys to minimize their impact. Those two won’t see more than 15 minutes combined in any game, so this is really about Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya. Luckily the Hawks have long emphasized conditioning and the ability to absorb hits because the team asks a ton of those guys.

Goaltenders

Corey Crawford is very good. Ben Bishop is very good. The Blackhawks and Lightning have two very different-looking goaltenders, but the overall results tend to fall in a similar range. Neither guy will stand on his head and win this series, but the Hawks probably won’t be gifted as many goals as they got from Frederik Andersen over the final few games of the West Final.

Crawford has a .919 save percentage and 2.56 GAA in the playoffs. Take out the first two games against Nashville, and those numbers jump to .931 and 2.33. Bishop, meanwhile, has allowed a .920 save percentage and 2.15 GAA this postseason. Most analysis of these two tends to put them in the same group, and it’s hard to disagree.

Special teams

The Lightning’s red-hot power play will meet the Blackhawks’ tough penalty kill in one of the round’s defining matchups. Tampa Bay crushed the Rangers with seven power play goals on 22 chances in the East Final, and Chicago can’t let that kind of performance repeat in this series. The contrast between Tampa Bay and Chicago’s power plays should be striking. The Lightning use a system predicated on constant movement in the zone, and do a great job rotating to get defensemen out of position. Luckily, Chicago has one of the game’s best penalty kills, and allowed only three PP goals to Anaheim in seven games.

On the flip side, the Blackhawks’ power play hasn’t been great lately, but neither has Tampa Bay’s penalty kill. The Lightning had a 71 percent penalty kill rate against New York, and that means Chicago should get a ton of chances when they get the man advantage. There’s a bit of strength vs. strength (TB PP vs. CHI PK) and weakness vs. weakness (CHI PP vs. TB PK) here.

Regular-season history

The Hawks and Lightning played twice during the regular season and split the two matchups.

Chicago won the first game between the two teams, 3-2, in a shootout on Nov. 11. Kruger scored a goal in the victory, but the real highlight was Kane’s shootout game-winner:

The teams would meet again on Feb. 27, with Bishop recording a shutout as the Lightning won, 4-0. Scott Darling was in goal for Chicago during that game, and saved 25-of-29 shot attempts. Stamkos had two goals.

Projected lines

Blackhawks

Saad-Toews-Kane
Bickell-Richards-Hossa
Sharp-Vermette-Teravainen
Desjardins-Kruger-Shaw

Keith-Hjalmarsson
Cumiskey-Seabrook
Oduya-Rundblad

Lightning

Killorn-Filppula-Stamkos
Palat-Johnson-Kucherov
Brown-Paquette-Callahan
Marchessault-Boyle-Morrow

Hedman-Stralman
Garrison-Coburn
Carle-Sustr

Notable injuries

The Blackhawks will be without veteran defenseman Michal Rozsival, who suffered a fractured ankle earlier in the playoffs. That’s pretty much the only absence of note, as the Lightning have a healthy roster entering the Stanley Cup Final.

Predictions

Satchel: Blackhawks in 6. There’s just enough firepower in Tampa Bay to steal a game or two, but Chicago isn’t letting this opportunity slip away.

Brandon: Blackhawks in 6. Each time the Hawks have won the Stanley Cup it has been in four or six games. The Black Hawks completed the sweep at home in 1934 and 1938 with their last three championships being decided on the road. History won’t repeat itself and the Hawks win their first Cup at home in 77 years. And barring a miraculous performance by Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews; Duncan Keith wins the Conn Smythe.

Adam: Blackhawks in 6. The Lightning’s bottom-six (well, five) isn’t deep enough to contend well with the Richards or Vermette lines. Hedman and Stralman are beasts, but after that there’s something to be desired on their blue line. I think Bishop would have to win this series for the Bolts, and he’s been too inconsistent in the playoffs for me to believe he’ll do that.

Erika, Ryan and Liz: Blackhawks in 6.

OK, basically we’re all picking the Blackhawks in six, which means the series will definitely go four, five or seven games. For an update on possible Conn Smythe candidates, check out Brandon’s post here.

Game information