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This Ain’t Texas: Blackhawks vs. Stars Preview

Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Blackhawks are back at the United Center on Saturday for a matinee tilt against the Dallas Stars. This is the first of a back-to-back set of afternoon games for Chicago this weekend.

The Stars are coming in hot, having won their eighth consecutive game on Wednesday with a 5-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers. Their current surge has propelled them to the top of the Central Division, three points ahead of the Colorado Avalanche with a game in hand, and they’re are sitting ahead of the Vancouver Canucks for first in the Western Conference. With only six games left for Dallas, they could secure home ice advantage in the playoffs until, at least, the Western Conference Final if they can maintain their current position — and possibly the entire playoffs as there are only two teams in the East with the same points (Boston Bruins) or better (New York Rangers). If they go that deep, of course.

Jason Robertson still leads the Stars in points by a large margin with 77 points (27 G, 50 A) in 76 games. After him, the points are still quite strong but not quite point-per-game strong: Joe Pavelski is at 63 points (26 G, 27 A), Roope Hintz at 62 (28 G, 34 A), Matt Duchene at 62 (24 G, 38 A), and Wyatt Johnston at 61 (30 G, 31 A). Ultimately their depth at forward is so great, they have exactly nine forwards with 0.68 points-per-game this season. Dallas also has two defensemen — Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley — above a 0.5 point-per-game with 49 points (8 G, 41) in 65 games and 41 points (15 G, 26 A) in 73 games, respectively.

The Stars are still without forward Evgenii Dadonov, who hasn’t played since Feb. 10 due to a lower back fracture, and possibly without forward Tyler Seguin (lower body) and defenseman Jani Hakanpaa (lower body). For Seguin, it appears Dallas is trying to manage his injury in the final games of the regular season. The team recalled prospect Mavirk Bourque, a former 2020 first-round pick and the AHL’s leading scorer at just 22 years old.

As a result of Seguin’s likely absence in Chicago, Matt Duchene slid up to the second-line center slot and Bourque slotted in on the third line during the Stars’ practice Friday. Otherwise, the lineup is basically the same as during the Edmonton game:

As their schedule has softened, the Blackhawks have been a bit more successful, but they are coming off a 2-1 loss to the New York Islanders on Tuesday. Still, over the last 10 games, the Blackhawks have won five times and managed to score 28 goals, a rate of 2.8 per game that is decently higher than their season average of 2.00 prior to those 10 games. That’s still not great offense — it’d be just 27th in the league if that was their season rate — but that’s made the recent games a little more entertaining, at least. The Blackhawks defense had given up 29 goals against in the same span, making that minus-one goal differential one of the best in a 10-game sample this season. In a season like this, we’ll take that.

This one seems like kind of a longshot for the Blackhawks, despite their slightly improved play. The Stars have really owned the Blackhawks in recent history: Chicago has lost each of its last five head-to-head versus Dallas, including three this season. Their latest loss to the team in green was a 3-1 outing back on Jan. 13 at the United Center. The Blackhawks have been outscored 16-6 in those three games, and four of Chicago’s goals came in a single game.

In those last 10 games, Philipp Kurashev leads the team in points with 14 (5 G, 9 A) with Connor Bedard a close second at 12 (2 G, 10 A). Points drop off after that for players, but Seth Jones is second with four goals in that span.

The Blackhawks lines at practice Friday were decently similar to what they rolled out against the Islanders with the one noticeable difference being the lack of Taylor Raddysh. Instead, Joey Anderson was moved up to the second line with Nick Foligno and Tyler Johnson while Colin Blackwell took turns with Lukas Reichel and Andreas Athanasiou on the third.

As noted in Friday’s Blackhawks Bits, Reese Johnson suffered a setback in his concussion recovery while Connor Murphy may be nearing a return from dealing with a groin injury. Murphy was skating on the extra pairing with Nikita Zaitsev, though, so it’s unlikely Murphy’s in the lineup for this game. Petr Mrazek will likely start in net.

Also of note: Colin Blackwell was named this year’s Blackhawks nominee for the Masterton Trophy:

Tale of the Tape

Blackhawks — Statistic — Stars

44.40% (31st) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 52.88% (5th)

43.35% (31st) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 54.50% (4th)

2.20 (t-31st) — Goals per game — 3.66 (2nd)

3.48 (28th) — Goals against per game — 2.87 (t-9th)

46.3% (30th) — Faceoffs — 53.7% (3rd)

16.2% (29th) — Power play — 24.1% (8th)

77.4% (22nd) — Penalty kill — 81.9% (9nd)

How to watch

When: 2:30 p.m. CT

Where: United Center, Chicago

TV: NBC Sports Chicago

Webstream: ESPN+

Radio: WGN 720

Also, there’s an animated broadcast of this game available on NBC Sports Chicago Plus, with details of that animated broadcast available here.