The Chicago Blackhawks head to UBS Arena on Tuesday night to face off against the New York Islanders.
Even with only eight games left, the Islanders are still fighting for a playoff spot: they are currently sitting three points back of the Washington Capitals for the second wild card spot, but the Detroit Red Wings are also three points ahead (the Caps own the tiebreaker with the Wings). The Islanders are also four points behind the Philadelphia Flyers with two games in hand for the third spot in the Metropolitan Division, thanks in part to a 4-3 overtime win against the Flyers on Monday. However, the team from Long Island is also just 3-6-1 in their last 10, the worst stretch among those three Eastern teams battling for the final playoff berth.
Even though facing a team near the bottom of the standings like the Blackhawks would seem fortuitous for a team like the Islanders looking for easy wins, the last time these two met back on Jan. 19, the Blackhawks won 4-3 in overtime and the Islanders fired coach Lane Lambert after the game. The Islanders have obviously climbed the standings under new coach Patrick Roy, but that disastrous January game showed the Blackhawks can play spoiler if they’re on top of their game. The Islanders also haven’t been successful this season in the second game of a back-to-back set:
The Islanders have improved statistically under Roy, mostly in suppressing quality chances against to give them a positive expected goals share. Since Jan. 20 when Roy took over, the Islanders only managed 48.65 percent of the shot attempts (23rd in the league in that time), but their expected goals percentage is 51.31 thanks to improving the high-danger chances against rate (just 8.75 per 60) and posting a top-10 scoring chances against rate (25.24 per 60) at 5-on-5.
Outside of the defense improving, the offense has only improved minutely. Prior to Roy, the Islanders’ goals-per-game rate was 2.93. Since, it’s 2.98. As for the players contributing to that offense, forwards Matthew Barzel (75 points in 73 games), Bo Horvat (66 in 74), and Brock Nelson (61 in 74) as well as defenseman Noah Dobson (66 in 74) still lead the team in production. There’s a major drop off from them, but Kyle Palmieri is at 0.59 points per game (44 in 74), Anders Lee is at 0.45 (33 in 74), and Jean-Gabriel Pageau at 0.41 (30 in 74) are contributing a bit and round out the top-six. Despite their lack of scoring depth, the Islanders didn’t make any trades at the NHL Trade Deadline.
Since the Islanders played on Monday night, they did not have a morning skate on Tuesday so we don’t know their lines. But here’s what they rolled out against the Flyers:
Since Semyon Varlamov played last night, expect Ilya Sorokin and his .907 save percentage to face the Blackhawks.
As for the Blackhawks, they’ve been on a bit of an upward swing thanks to the softening of their schedule: they’re a respectable 7-5-0 since ending a seven-game losing streak in early March, have won three of their last four games, and are coming off a 5-1 victory over the Flyers on Saturday night. The Flyers game, in particular, was exciting because several of the young guns — Connor Bedard, Philipp Kurashev, Lukas Reichel, Alex Vlasic, and Wyatt Kaiser — factored into goals and/or put up strong performances.
The solid game in Philadephia likely means the Blackhawks won’t change much in terms of their lineup for the game against the Islanders. Chicago didn’t have a morning skate on Tuesday, but their lines at Monday’s practice were the same as in the game against the Flyers:
This means that Connor Bedard is still on wing, which the team stated was meant to be a short-term thing to help Bedard with faceoffs and defensively, two things at which his current center — Jason Dickinson — excels.
There is also a chance that Colin Blackwell and Nikita Zaitsev, both out recently with upper-body injuries, could play Tuesday night based on how ready they are during warm-ups.
In prospect news, the Blackhawks will have three forwards in the Frozen Four: Frank Nazar (Michigan), Ryan Greene (Boston), and Aiden Thompson (Denver). Semifinals are on Thursday, April 11, and the final is Saturday, April 13. Nazar was the only one of the three to register a point in their last regional game, and the assist was a beauty:
Tale of the Tape
Blackhawks — Statistic — Islanders
44.46% (31st) — 5-on-5 Corsi For — 46.78% (25th)
43.18% (31st) — 5-on-5 Expected goals for — 49.51% (19th)
2.22 (t-31st) — Goals per game — 2.96 (21st)
3.50 (29th) — Goals against per game — 3.30 (23rd)
46.4% (29nd) — Faceoffs — 51.2% (11th)
16.3% (27th) — Power play — 20.0% (20th)
77.6% (21st) — Penalty kill — 72.0% (32nd)
How to watch
When: 6:30 p.m. CT
Where: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY
TV: NBC Sports Chicago
Webstream: ESPN+
Radio: WGN 720