The Blackhawks’ 3-2 overtime loss to the Canucks on Monday night removed some of the luster off a resilient Chicago team that has again materialized as a factor in the Western Conference playoff race.
With 10 games remaining, the Blackhawks are four points behind the Coyotes and three behind the Wild with a game in hand on both teams. They’re also tied with the Avalanche at 74 points in 72 games, with the aforementioned Canucks in striking distance at 72 points in 73 games.
Although the defeat to the Canucks was a setback, it hasn’t silenced Chicago’s playoff hopes. But Monday’s squandered point could loom large as the Blackhawks inch closer to the most crucial part of the schedule, followed by a brutal Central Division gauntlet at the end.
Before we examine the Hawks remaining games, let’s glance at the other teams in the chase:
- The Wild have the most difficult finish, with eight of their last nine games against teams currently in a playoff spot. The only outlier is Tuesday’s game against the Avalanche, a team that’ll be just as desperate to pick up points.
- The Avalanche, meanwhile, face six playoff teams in their final 10, which doesn’t include this weekend’s home-and-home against the Blackhawks. There isn’t a single cupcake on Colorado’s remaining schedule.
- Arizona can catch its breath after facing the the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Lightning on Monday. The Coyotes face two non-playoff teams next: Florida on Thursday and New Jersey on Saturday. But the March 26 game against the Blackhawks looms large. Arizona ends its season by traveling to Vegas followed by a home game against the Jets./
Chicago’s trek is not as brutal as the Wild’s but certainly more mountainous than Arizona’s. There’s Thursday’s game against a surging Flyers team followed by the aforementioned weekend double-dip with the Avalanche. Then, it’s next Tuesday’s pivotal game at Arizona. And then the Blackhawks visit the Sharks in San Jose — again.
The Blackhawks only opponent with 0 playoff hopes are the Los Angeles Kings, in the same building where Chicago’s late-season surge was nearly put to bed for good.
And the news only gets worse from there, with the Blackhawks closing the season with four straight games — the first three at home — against the top four teams in the Central Division in this order: Winnipeg, St. Louis, Dallas and Nashville.
So what must the Blackhawks do to catch the Coyotes and return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
Say the Coyotes pick up five wins in their final nine games (which is probably the most optimistic outcome, considering their relatively soft schedule). That puts their total at 88 points.
For the sake of this exercise, let’s also assume Minnesota succumbs to its difficult schedule and Colorado moves to the rearview mirror after this weekend to create a two-horse race between Arizona and Chicago.
The Blackhawks would still need seven wins (or 14 points) in their final 11 games just to tie the Coyotes — and Arizona currently has a two-game lead in the regulation/overtime wins category that serves as the top tiebreaker.
Where do those seven wins emerge?
Although the Flyers have been much better of late, the Blackhawks probably need that victory then would also have to snatch a minimum of one win from the Avalanche this weekend. Next Tuesday’s game in Arizona must be another win or this is all for naught. That’s three.
It’s hard to imagine the Blackhawks beating the Sharks in San Jose, but let’s credit them with a redemptive performance against the Kings for the fourth win.
That’s a reasonable 4-2 stretch over the next six games, but the Blackhawks would still have to acquire six points in those last four games against the Jets, Blues, Stars and Predators. A 3-1 record could get the job done. The good news there is that the Blackhawks are 11-6-3 against Central Division foes this season.
The Blackhawks aren’t done yet.