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We’re on the outside and we’re looking in: A Blackhawks fan’s guide to the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Posted on by Dave Melton

Once again, the Blackhawks will be spectators for the Stanley Cup Playoffs this summer, as another season ends without a shot at hockey’s holy grail. But all of us –  like most of you –  will still be tuning in over the next few months to see what unfolds in the 2023 postseason.

The SCH staff assembled to offer some thoughts about the 16 teams who’ve qualified for the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, with the teams presented in order of how they finished in the league standings:

Western Conference

Vegas Golden Knights

Dave: Just realized the Vegas finished with the most points in the West this season. Had no idea! No one on this team stands out as especially obnoxious and the always wonderful Phil Kessel is on the team, so it wouldn’t be too annoying if this was the year for Vegas.

Eric: Jack Eichel’s first taste of the playoffs! He may be a weird robot but I’m always glad to see quality players get their first chance in the playoffs (sorry Connor Murphy). Who’s Vegas’ goalie again? Oh yeah, Columbus Blue Jackets’ legend Jonathan Quick. He’s 6-2-2 since coming over to the Golden Knights but I just don’t see how you can expect to ride him very far.

L_B_R: Vegas feels a bit like a popcorn muscle team this year: they look good in the regular season but it doesn’t feel sustainable when put to a real test. They were in the bottom half of the league in expected goals share (50.50 percent) and shot attempt share (48.15 percent). One team (Washington) has won the cup with shot metric possession stats that poor in recent years, so it’s not impossible, but it requires near perfection to do it. Lucky for them, the path out of the West is a bit easier than in the East. Mark Stone being healthy (and he’s playing in Game 1) would be the difference-maker, though, to whether Vegas will pop early or not.

Edmonton Oilers

Dave: This is probably atop the list of tweets from the SCH account that need to be spoken into existence:

Eric: Edmonton has been the best team in the NHL since Jan. 1 and got even better at the trade deadline. Their defense has taken a gigantic step forward with the addition of Mattias Eckholm (and the subsequent subtraction of noted defensive turnstile Tyson Barrie) and they have a historically good power play (which, McDavid, duh). It feels like they should have no issue walking straight back into the Western Conference Finals for a rematch with the Avalanche but a lot rests on rookie goalie Stuart Skinner and his ridiculous/glorious mustache.

L_B_R: It’s kind of gross they’re good, honestly – especially after the trade deadline, with a 16-2-1 record since. Their biggest concern is scoring depth and goaltending, but Stuart Skinner took over in net and been annoying awesome with a .914 save-percentage on the season. But does anyone actually want to root for them outside of Edmonton? They’re like the Toronto Maple Leafs of the west: the most entertaining thing is them failing leading up to or in the playoffs despite having some of – or in this case THE – best players in the league. So I’m going full chaotic evil mode and hoping for a quick demise. Teams just need to keep them off the power play as much as possible.

Mil: Not enough people are talking about McDavid’s historic season. I would not be surprised if he willed the Oilers to another Western Conference Final appearance. If nothing else, Edmonton should be fun to watch this postseason.

Colorado Avalanche

Eric: The Avs finished the regular season on fire, going 16-3 down the stretch in order to snatch the Central Division crown away from the Stars.

Always hard to rule out the defending champs but Colorado has lost a lot of depth since last season’s cup-winning run, their captain Gabriel Landeskog won’t be returning for the playoffs (after sitting out all year while recovering from knee surgery) and both Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen are banged up at the moment. Nathan MacKinnon is good enough to beat Seattle on his own though if either of them need to take it easy to ensure they’re ready for round two.

L_B_R: Colorado played this season perfectly like a seasoned champ: came out slow to conserve energy but turned it on when necessary to take over lead in their division. Even with that conservation, MacKinnon and Rantanen both had over 100 point seasons, Makar was over a point-per-game, and Bowen Byram stepped into a top-4 role pretty effortlessly. The only real difference between this year and last year’s Avalanche is the lack of Nazem Kadri – which they seemingly did not miss – and Alexandar Georgiev – who proves that any decent goalie can perform well behind one of the best possession teams in the league. The hiccup for the Avalanche might be having to face Seattle in the first round: they’re a better team than most of the other Central division foes.

Dave: The Rocky Mountains are lovely and Denver is a delightful city so there will always be a soft spot for any teams from that city for those reasons. If the Blackhawks were any good and running into this Colorado juggernaut in the postseason, the feelings may be different, but I currently struggle to find any reason to dislike the Avs.

Mil: Between personnel changes and injuries, I’m not sure how much Colorado will have left in the tank to try to make another run at the Cup. The energy provided during last year’s Nazem Kadri face-turn is no longer there. I wouldn’t count the Avs out long-term but I don’t see them coming out of this playoff with ay hardware.

Dallas Stars

Eric: While it’s hard for me to force myself to say anything good about something from Texas, the Stars could be poised for a nice run this postseason. They have high-end offensive talent, solid defense and a top ten goalie. While us Hawks’ fans stare into the abyss of our own rebuild we can look to Dallas for a shining example of how one really good draft can change the entire fortune of your franchise. In 2017 the Stars selected bonafide No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen and goaltender Jake Oettinger in the first round before nabbing superstar winger Jason Robertson (who just set the Dallas single season points record) in the second. Let’s all collectively ignore that six-year timeline however.

L_B_R: Dallas seems to be one of those teams that always looks like they could do well in the playoffs yet then never get the actual Cup, but this could be the year for them. Not only is the path easier than usual, the Stars actually have a well-rounded team this year. Usually, they’re all about defense – it’s how they got to the Cup Final in 2019 – but the Stars now have a top-10 offense to go along with that defensive prowess. It’s the first time they’ve been near the top in goals per game since 2015-16. Jamie Benn is having a come-back season (0.96 PPG), Joe Pavelski seems immortal at this point, while Robertson and Roope Hintz keep repping for the young guys. Not to mention, Oettinger is coming off a .954 save-percentage performance in the playoffs last year.

Dave: I’m just thrilled that Eric and L_B_R had things to say about Dallas because I had nothing. And it feels like I never have, even though it’s been in the same division as Chicago for almost a decade now.

Mil: Please leave the Monster Energy / XBOX jerseys in the closet.

Los Angeles Kings

Eric: I really like Kevin Fiala. I love me some Philip Danault. But, man, the Kings are just boring. A precedent has been set though that every time Los Angeles makes a major trade with the Blue Jackets they go on to win The Stanley Cup – and don’t look now but that’s where they just rescued a top four defenseman and their starting goaltender from. Sorry, Connor McDavid. I guess you and your 153 points are getting sent home by a grown adult man named Mikey.

L_B_R: The Kings were objectively one of the best teams in the second half of the season, especially defensively: they were top-five in both suppressing quantity and quality shots against. Their offense was no slouch either – 3.48 per 60 – but a lot of that came away from 5-on-5 play. Still, the Kings top-nine is well rounded with eight of them have a .5 point-per-game rate or better and Anze Kopitar having a defensive resurgence this season to coincide with his uptick in offense over the last few years.

The biggest question mark for them is the health of Kevin Fiala, their top producer and who reportedly may miss the entire first round (which could mean the entire playoffs, let’s be honest).

Dave: I remain jealous that Kopitar and Doughty are still here from the Kings’ glory days and are still playing in actual playoff games as opposed to what the Blackhawks have been doing for the last six years.

Minnesota Wild

Dave: Will probably exit in the first round because that’s what the Wild do. Barely worth the effort of typing these sentences.  

Eric: So apparently Dave hates fun. Marc-Andre Fleury, as fun as it gets. Matt Boldy; young, fun, really good and coming into his own (also taken nine slots after Kirby Dach in the 2019 Draft). And Kirill Kaprizov is maybe as offensively gifted and exciting as any player in the league that’s not named Connor McDavid. Dallas and Minnesota split their season series 2-2, with both Wild wins coming in the shootout. This should be a really close series with a ton of scoring which = FUN, DAVID. LOTS AND LOTS OF FUN.

Dave: We must have different definitions of “fun.”

L_B_R: I mean, Dave isn’t wrong: the Wild are as big of first round losers as the Leafs are – just less people care to laugh at their misfortune (mostly because not a lot care about the Wild in general). But hey, this could be a year they make it out of the opening round! Well, probably not but anything can happen.

The Wild are excellent at quality shot suppression – their expected goals against rate (2.48 per 60) is top-10 – even if pretty middle of the pack in terms of puck-possession team and the quantity of shots they allow – 31.1 per game, only good for 16th in the league. Their offense is a problem – Kirill Kaprizov with his 1.12 point-per-game is their only true standout – but then the third best save percentage (.930 percent). Interestingly, Minnesota’s first opponent has the same strengths as them – defense and goaltending – but Dallas is better offensively.

Also though, who can root against Marc-Andre Fleury? (even though he probably won’t be starting)

Mil: I love Marc-Andre Fleury. With that said, there’s nothing really special about this Wild team. They seem to continuously parody themselves year-in and year-out.

Seattle Kraken

Dave: This feels like the easy choice for any hockey fan without postseason affiliations because it’s the Kraken’s first time ever in this space and no obviously players to hate stand out when scanning the roster. The closest candidates would be Vince Dunn and Jaden Schwartz due to their St. Louis ties but they’ve been away long enough to wash as much of that stench away as possible.

Eric: While not quite the same level of success (yet?) and not quite as fast, it’s still cool to see the latest expansion team follow the Vegas model and energize their fan base ASAP by introducing them to the playoffs. Seattle got toasted for playing it a little too safe in the expansion draft and through their initial foray into free agency, but now they’re set up nicely with a ton of balance and depth. The Kraken had six different players with at least 20 goals, and 11 with 14 or more. The Avalanche are going to blow their doors off however because they have the worst goaltending of any team in the playoffs (both of their starters finished the year with a sub .900 save percentage. Gross!).

L_B_R: Seattle didn’t come out blazing like Vegas did their first year in the league, but the Kraken making the playoffs in as sophomores is still pretty impressive. They are one of only two playoff teams without a point-per-game player, but they also have the fourth best goals per games rate (3.52) in the league thanks to eight forwards in their top-nine producing at least at 0.5 points per game. This includes Calder Trophy favorite Matty Beniers, who just looks so legit. However, as Eric pointed out above, the playoffs are going to be tough with how abysmal the Kraken’s netminders are. Almost feel bad for them, honestly, but their management is to blame for not picking up a better option at the trade deadline.

Mil: The Kraken are fun, they have a lot of guys – many of who I forgot were even still in the league – scoring in double digits. They will have to put up a lot of goals if they want to be successful but that doesnt seem out of the question. While I don’t see them going very deep, I will cheer for them while they’re in it.

Winnipeg Jets

Dave: No better example of the hockey cliché “will go as far as the goalie takes them.” Which, this season, is probably to Game 5 of the first round.

Eric: The Winnipeg White Out is of the coolest and most unique fan celebrations in all of sports. Enjoy it for the two games the Jets will get at home this series because they’re going to get smoked.

L_B_R: The Jets are better than their record, but they’re still not particularly good. But then, their first opponent is pretty much the opposite, so that could work out in Winnipeg’s favor. The issue with the Jets offensively is that while they can get to danger areas well, the lack of finish puts in the in the bottom-12 in conversion. Winnipeg is decent defensively, though, suppressing shots against well, so combined with good goaltending – Connor Hellebuyck is top-five with a .920 save-percentage among goalies with at least 30 games played – Winnipeg could surprise, at least in the first round. The Jets are the other team besides the Kraken to not have a point-per-game player, but Kyle Connor was close with a 0.98 rate.

Mil: I guess I’m dying on my “Jets are not bad” hill. They have a boring coach but he’s gotten worse teams pretty far in the playoffs before.

Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins

Dave: With the Hawks out of it, most of what I hope for is the funniest possible result and I desperately want to plaster this tweet from that Chicago win over Boston across every corner of the internet:

Eric: Boston just had the best regular season of any team in the history of the NHL, what could possibli go wrong? Ignoring what happened to the last team that set a whole bunch of regular-season win records, the Bruins are a juggernaut with insane depth and we should probably just give them The Stanley Cup right now and get it over with. I’m sure they’ll come out the gates rolling and suffer no adversity whatsoever during a truly impressive 16-0 postseason run.

Ruh roh.

L_B_R: Boston is ridiculously good this year in every way. The Bruins are well-rounded at 5-on-5, have balanced special teams, and are loaded with special players, including the Vezina favorite in Linus Ullmark and a Hart candidate in David Pastrnak. The question though is: will the Bruins be healthy? A lot of players are questionable due to a “bug” going around the locker room, but players like Bergeron (upper body) and Ullmark (lower body) could have lingering issues from the regular season:

Mil: Anybody but Boston.

Carolina Hurricanes

Dave: Is the “Teuvo’s still here,” rule still in effect? Because he is still here.

Eric: Carolina is THE best possession team in their entire league (with a 60.38 percent positive shot share, which is three entire percentage points higher than the number two team, the Calgary Flames), and yet Carolina is 15th in the league in scoring. And therein is everything you need to know about why the Hurricanes can’t seem to get to the next level. They tried to address their scoring by grifting San Jose for Brent Burns and Vegas for Max Pacioretty last offseason and it was going great until Pacioretty’s Achilles’ tendon exploded and he was done for the year. They also lost Andrei Svechnikov – who may be their best overall player – to a knee injury and he won’t be back until some time next season. Carolina survived their annual goalie injury carousel (so it seems) but the Islanders will be a tough out for them. The Hurricanes could be done really early this time around.

L_B_R: Carolina has been one of the statistically best teams in the league for years now, but they just can’t seem to translate that into playoff success. This year’s team feels like one of the quietest lately, which could be a good thing: they could sneakily make quite a run for the Cup. With so few teams to root for as a Hawks fans these playoffs, the Hurricanes are one of the easiest to get behind. And Brent Burns has been excellent with them since his pickup. I read this tweet to the tune of “Gaston” from Beauty and the Beast:

Mil: I’m happy they ditched the black uni’s this playoff. The old school red look is way better. They also employee our good friend and fellow beer-enjoyer, Calvin de Haan.

New Jersey Devils

Dave: The new kids on the block but without any recent hits because New Jersey has made the postseason once since 2012 and only won once that year (2018). With a fun, young core that includes Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt, it’s a fairly easy team to get behind for the next few months.

Eric: Jack Hughes rules. Dougie Hamilton rules. The Devils have my favorite goal song in the entire league and New Jersey and New York fans hate the shit out of each other. This should be the best series of the first round and a ton of fun (SORRY, DAVE) to watch. Everyone has been searching for “the next 2010 Blackhawks” since Game Six in Philadelphia but this team feels like a bit of the 2009 Blackhawks to me; they’re coming in green but they seem fearless and if they get past the first round they could make some serious noise.

L_B_R: Look, I want to root for the Devils because, as my friends above have stated, the young guns on the team are just fun. But they need to lose to the Rangers for Hawks’ purposes. Still, if they do make it past the first round, it’ll be interesting to see how far they get: they’re young and inexperienced but make up for it in being a well-coached team full of talent. And statistically, the Devils are only behind Carolina for expected goals share (56.53 percent) and are fourth in shot possession (54.12 percent).

Mil: The Devils were the team I was most interested in before the season started. They have a little bit of everything: star power, 200-foot skaters, solid blueliners … I’m here for it. The fact that we get to see them take on the Rangers in round one is fantastic. I hope this series goes 7 games deep. Two words: Dudes Rock.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Dave: It’d be the most Toronto thing to avenge that first-round loss to Tampa from last season just in time to be decapitated by that Boston juggernaut. Feels like Toronto could win the whole damn thing if it surpasses that Tampa/Boston gauntlet – but it won’t.

Eric: The Leafs went all in at the deadline this season and it feels like this will finally be the year they win at least one round (no one has ever said that before, right?). Time is definitely running out for this iteration of Toronto’s roster. Both Auston Matthews and William Nylander can go UFA after next season and GM Kyle Dubas’ contract is set to expire this summer. Proof that the NHL truly loves to smell its own farts: if Dubas walks there’s already a growing contingent of fanbases frothing at the mouth at the thought of replacing their GMs with the guy who traded for every single available defenseman at the deadline this year.

L_B_R: The Leafs are only interesting in how often they build themselves up only to fail. Maybe this will be the year they slay their demons ala the 2018 Capitals, but unlike Washington, very few outside Toronto will be rooting for such an outcome.

Mil: If we can get an eventual Toronto vs. Boston series in 2023, I would love nothing more than the Leafs to win in four. I’ll leave it at that.

New York Rangers

Eric: Patrick Kane has only put up 13 points (5 G, 8 A) in the 19 games since being traded to the Rangers and Vlad Tarasenko has put up 21 (8 G, 13 A) in 30. Good thing for New York is they don’t need either of those guys to do that much more in order to be successful. The Rangers have two players who could go nuclear and absolutely take over a series in Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin (I might even toss Adam Fox on that list as well, who should win the Norris this year but won’t because Erik Karlsson scored a billionty points). The big wild card for me is Igor Shesterkin, who I consider to be the best goalie on the entire planet. He’s been pretty average this season – well, by the standards he set last year at least – but he’s absolutely capable of going on enough of a heater that this whole thing winds up in a parade through Midtown Manhattan.

Dave: It’s going to be extremely interesting to see if the playoff version of Patrick Kane that we all witnessed in the early 2010s makes a return this spring/summer, considering that Kane was on the other side of 30 the last time he was in a postseason game for Chicago (no, 2020 does not count, thank you very much). That first-round series agind the Devils should be a blast, either way.  

Mil: I feel like this team is a bit overrated. Yet, NJ vs NYR is always a wild series. We also get a glimpse of playoff Patrick Kane (with Panarin) in 2023. For what its worth, they were not able to do jack nor shit during their Chicago playoff stints. But this is a different team, so I’ll hold my tongue. Let the chaos begin.

L_B_R: The Rangers are definitely overrated: they 17th in shot attempt share (49.80 percent) and 22nd in expected goals share (49.10 percent). Despite their offense being so-so (12th in the league wtih 3.33 goals per game), the Rangers can do some damage on the power play (7th in the league with 24.1 percent). And it’s hard to think a roster with guys like Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, Chris Kreider, Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrick Kane, and Filip Chytil – all 0.6 points per game or better in New York – that they couldn’t kick it up a notch at some point. Combined with some good, young defensive guys – like Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Braden Schneider, and Ryan Lindgren – plus Igor Shesterkin in net, this team could do better than their regular season rating suggests. Let’s hope that true,  at least for Hawks draft purposes.

Kane and Panarin are not expected to start on the same line in Game 1, but it’d be fun to see them connect like the old days:

Tampa Bay Lightning

Eric: I’m sure we all remember what it looks like when an NHL GM gets desperate to keep a dynasty together and starts making panicked, lopsided trades in an effort to hang on to past glory. Why do I bring this up? No reason (I’m still completely baffled by that trade). It feels like the Lightning’s loss to Colorado in the Finals last year was a changing of the guard but then you remember that Tampa still has Kucherov and Hedman and Stamkos and Point and Vasilevskiy and Corey Perry (just making sure you’re still playing attention) and it feels foolish to count them out of another deep run. But I am. The Toronto series was incredibly close last year but I think the Bolts get eliminated by the Leafs this time around.

L_B_R: The Lightning looked like a different team much of this year, but it’s unknown if that was a champion trying to rest for the real show come playoffs or if they lost a step. Considering the Lightning’s forward group is still very deep, how far the Lightning could go might depend on the defense, which hasn’t been as strong as in years past. Victor Hedman, in particular, has had a rough season, but counting out guys like Hedman to be able to turn it on when needed seems like a bad bet. The problem is after Hedman, who really is on the Lightning defense? Erik Cernak, Ian Cole and Nick Perbix are a pretty meh group.

Andrei Vasilevskiy in net is also always going to a huge factor: his .915 save-percentage is solid, but we all know he really gets to work in the postseason. He’s got a bit of a chip on his shoulder from last playoffs, too:

New York Islanders

Eric: I’m a goalie guy and man do I love me some Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin should be a Vezina finalist this year (along with Juuse Saros and Linus Ullmark) and if it wasn’t for Ullmark’s absolutely insane stat line then Sorokin probably walks away with it. The Islanders have some really good, young players in Matt Barzal and Noah Dobson. Some underrated scorers in Brock Nelson and the recently acquired then extended Bo Horvat. And that’s about it. The rest of the roster is a bunch of dudes. They match up well against the Hurricanes, so this feels like a low scoring, grind it out type of series that will probably go all seven.

L_B_R: It’s all about Sorokin for this team, obviously, because the Islanders are one of the most blah teams otherwise. Like Wild during the Hawks dynasty years level of mild blahness. But they are getting back Mathew Barzal, who hasn’t played since Feb. 18 and should help them be at least somewhat more entertaining. Special teams will likely play an important factor if the Islanders want to have any chance of success, and Barzal is key to that.

Florida Panthers

Eric: The Panthers won The President’s Trophy last season then got blown up so badly by the Lightning in the second round of the playoffs that they made a horrible coaching change and traded a huge chunk off the top of their roster for Matthew Tkachuk. Tkachuk has worked out beautifully for Florida though as he set a career-high with 109 points this season. He also annoys opposing players and fanbases to no end, and that’s only bound to ramp up in the playoffs. Perhaps he and Brad Marchand can skate in to each other with enough force that they’ll both implode and leave a giant skidmark on the ice? The Panthers only got in because of some late season heroics by journeyman goalie Alex Lyon and the Penguins thoroughly crapping their pants (thanks again, Yinzers!), but I have a feeling they won’t be around long enough for it to matter.

Mil: This got the entire Penguins front office canned. I like Florida, and while having guys like Sid and Ovi in the playoffs would be good for the league, I would not mind seeing the team from sunrise go on a little run.

L_B_R: Florida is a team like Carolina that is often statistically great, but they just can’t seem to get over some hurdle translating that to real success. It was so bad this year, the Panthers only made the playoffs because the Penguins shit the bed (I mean, who loses to the Hawks when their postseason destiny is on the line??). Still, the Panthers have a solid lineup: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Reinhart are a nice top-four forward group while Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour, and Gustav Forsling have done well leading the blue line. But like with a lot of teams, the make or break position seems to be in net, and in Florida’s case, the news isn’t great: Sergei Bobrovsky put up another lackluster season with just a .901 save-percentage and who knows how Alex Lyon might perform if he has to take over starting duties.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Eric: The NHL Playoffs are one of my favorite times of the year. It’s the perfect showcase for all the speed and skill in hockey while the tension and competition rise to levels that can make you physically uncomfortable to watch as a fan. It’s the best.

Offensive numbers exploded in the NHL this season with two different 60 goal scorers, five players scoring at least 50, and 19 (!!!) players ending up with 40 goals or more (and 17 of those 19 are in the playoffs). This is going to be a blast.

AND HERE’S EVEN MORE FUN, DAVE.

You wanna get nuts? Come on! Let’s get nuts! Toronto takes Boston to a game seven in the second round (they might be the only team who can match the Bs offense and depth) and almost pulls it off but Ullmark is the difference. Bruins versus Devils in the Eastern Conference Finals. Colorado versus Edmonton in the West. Bruins beat the Oilers to win The Stanley Cup. Patrice Bergeron decides to come back for one more year but David Krejci doesn’t. Boston signs Jonathan Toews and the first time I hear some Masshole say “TAY-ZAH!” a small part of my soul dies and the rest of me vomits in my own mouth.

Dave: See what the Blackhawks have done to me?

Mil: I’m here for all of the Chaos. Give me teams from the NASCAR region. Give me the big upsets. Give me the crazy scores and overtimes. I am an outsider looking in and I wish only to be entertained.

L_B_R: I’m with Mil, I just want chaos and entertainment.

Talking Points