Artemi Panarin is a 24-year-old Russian wunderkind who’s taken the NHL by storm. He’s also a rookie, both in practical and official terms. And yet, for whatever reason, it seems like some people are still hesitant to heap praise upon the no-brainer Calder Trophy favorite right now.
This isn’t to say that Panarin doesn’t get credit for his brilliance. His highlights have been shown on television and major social media accounts. Blackhawks fans are talking extension just months into his career. And most midseason Calder analysis had Panarin either at the top or firmly in the mix.
But it seems like there’s always a caveat. There’s always the “Well yeah but he plays with Patrick Kane” comment, or someone feels the need to point out he’s older than other rookies. We get it — Panarin’s circumstances aren’t exactly the same as others. He opted to sign with the Hawks knowing he’d get a fantastic opportunity. He’s proceeded to grab the reins and put on a show.
From a developmental perspective, there’s another point being made. Of course a player putting up points when he’s 20 years old is more impressive than when he’s 24. He’s theoretically further from his prime and has even more room to improve. Panarin probably won’t get worlds better than he currently is given his experience and his age.
But they don’t give the Calder award to the best first-year prospect. They give it to the rookie who performed the best during the season. And right now, even if Panarin isn’t necessarily the long-term prospect that a Jack Eichel or Connor McDavid is, it seems fairly obvious that he’s been the best first-year player in the NHL. The only real argument you can make against him is that you don’t believe he should be eligible, but that’s a whole different can of worms to open up. And yet I still wake up to this:
BEST ROOKIE? BEST. ROOKIE. BEST ROOKIE!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Alright, you guys made me do this.
In terms of actual performance in 2015-16, Panarin is clearly the leader in the pack. Here’s how he stacks up in traditional statistics:
In assists and points, the numbers aren’t all that close. Panarin has six more assists and eight more points than any other rookie.
His underlying statistics are nearly as impressive. Most of the discussion around Panarin’s performance seems focused on the team he plays for and the teammates he plays with. That takes away from the fact that the Hawks only look this good because of Panarin’s impact. Patrick Kane isn’t having the best season of his career in a vacuum. He’s having it because Panarin is the best winger he’s ever been paired with.
Here’s the breakdown of some key advanced stats at even strength for the top six Calder contenders named by NHL.com earlier this week:
Now there are obviously a few things to note here.
(1) Panarin benefits from getting lots of offensive zone starts on a team with a strong possession system. That’s telling in just about every statistic there is. However, most rookies get eased into their defensive responsibilities like Panarin has been, and not all of them have thrived in the possession game like he has. Duclair has been impressive in that regard, but has really struggled to create his own shots (1.17 per game). If he wasn’t shooting an unsustainable 24.5 percent, he wouldn’t even be in this discussion because he’d be so far behind in points.
(2) Larkin seems like the Calder contender benefiting most from fortunate puck luck early on. We’ve seen the Red Wings‘ center put up some dazzling goals during his debut season, but his on-ice PDO, which sits over 108 at even strength and 106 overall, is going to go down. While that’s partially due to his goaltenders playing out of their minds behind him, Larkin will need to improve elsewhere to make up for that inevitable regression. He’s not been a great possession player thus far, with a negative Corsi at even strength, so it’ll be interesting to see what else Larkin can do from here. One obvious thing would probably be to carve out more playing time than his current 16:50 per game, which could be possible as the rest of his game comes together. (Ed. Note: Some post-publishing discussion has made the point that Larkin’s two-way game was not given proper credit here, something I couldn’t really disagree with. This section has been re-written to reflect that.)
(3) I think you could probably put Colton Parayko ahead of Gostisbehere based on how much more he’s played. The Flyers rookie has been impressive, but we’re talking about a defenseman with a shooting percentage above 15 over a 23-game span. He’s probably going to take a step back at some point once his puck luck swings in the other direction, not unlike Larkin.
(4) Eichel still deserves a nod for his amazing shot creation ability. The Buffalo center averages 3.16 shots on goal per game, easily the highest among all rookies, and that makes his goal-scoring as foolproof as any first-year player. There’s no unsustainable fluke in Eichel’s game and that means he’s only going to make genuine improvements from his current 55-point pace. Taking on such a big role has clearly revealed some holes in his two-way game — a running theme among rookies, as always — but it’s easy to see why Eichel was the No. 2 overall pick in the NHL Draft. He’s a special talent.
But all of this comes back to Panarin as the clear No. 1.
Maybe you think Eichel or Domi or Larkin is a better prospect, but nobody has made a greater impact on their team than Panarin this season. He’s single-handedly won the Hawks games by making unbelievable plays on the puck that are usually reserved for the game’s top stars. Panarin might not have a ton of projection left in front of him given his age, but it’s apparent that he’s already among the league’s better offensive players. There’s no advanced stats that could possibly trump his lead in points scored, not to mention Panarin performs well based on those markers, too.
And while defense has been a common concern with Panarin, maybe the biggest advantage of his experience has been a two-way game. Panarin shows an ability to backcheck and play the three-zone game Chicago demands of its forwards, which is why he’s played so many minutes from Day 1. He’s no Marian Hossa on that end, but he’s also ahead of most of the other first-year players still trying to figure things out defensively. That’s a big part of why his even-strength possession numbers are so much better than some other Calder candidates.
Panarin has had to deal with his own challenges as a rookie, too. Most of the other Calder contenders can speak English. Panarin, who speaks Russian, has often been forced to use translators in order to communicate with media and his colleagues. He’s still been a young-ish kid from across the world coming to a big city and a championship team with massive expectations. And he’s completely blown us all away. When you talk about “hockey sense” and an ability to understand the geometry of the game that transcends language, Panarin has that.
So you can say Panarin is too old, too experienced, maybe even too fortunate to be playing next to a superstar. But he’s eligible as the league’s best rookie and as long as he’s playing this way, he should be acknowledged as such.